The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned prediction-market operators against using American-style ‘moneyline’ betting odds, as the regulator seeks to reinforce its oversight of the rapidly expanding sector.

The CFTC told regulated entities to comply with the law and avoid ‘deceptive’ practices when listing, advertising or soliciting contracts, according to a letter obtained by Bloomberg. The agency also cited research suggesting that American-style odds can encourage greater risk-taking in sports betting.

Prediction markets typically quote contracts in cents with prices corresponding directly to implied probabilities. Moneyline odds instead use positive or negative figures to indicate potential returns on a $100 wager.

Kalshi said it would comply with the CFTC’s guidance.

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CFTC Chair, Michael Selig, has argued that the agency has exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets and has moved to defend that position against states seeking to apply their gambling and sports-betting laws to the platforms.

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The dispute has intensified as prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded rapidly. The platforms have backed federal CFTC oversight while some states and tribal gaming regulators argue that sports-related contracts should remain subject to state gambling laws.

Lawmakers and tribal gaming interests have also pressed Congress to clarify the boundary between federal derivatives regulation and state control of sports betting.

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