#SaudiRoutesOilExportsViaSuez The Gulf oil crisis is entering a much more dangerous phase, and markets still don't seem to be pricing it in.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed again after the ceasefire collapsed, cutting off Iranian crude exports.
At the same time, the Bab el-Mandeb has become another front in the conflict, with Houthi attacks disrupting Saudi-linked shipping and limiting one of the Gulf's most important alternative export routes.
The pressure doesn't stop there.
Kazakhstan has halted exports through the CPC terminal after Ukraine's Black Sea drone campaign, leaving up to 1.7M barrels per day stranded.
Ukraine's repeated strikes have already kept roughly 1.5M barrels per day of Russian refined products offline, tightening fuel markets even further.
What makes this different from the March shock is that multiple supply routes are being squeezed simultaneously.
Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Black Sea, and Russian exports are all under pressure at the same time.
Gulf producers have far less room to replace lost barrels, global oil inventories have fallen by roughly 1.5B barrels since late February, and U.S. refineries are already running close to full capacity while fuel inventories remain relatively tight.
One thing worth watching is whether markets are becoming too complacent.
If these disruptions persist, the oil market could shift from a fuel shortage into a broader crude supply crisis, putting pressure on prices and increasing the chances of another coordinated release from strategic petroleum reserves.
Source: CFR, CNBC, Bloomberg / Writer: Lucas$HIMS $IRYS $BABA
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed again after the ceasefire collapsed, cutting off Iranian crude exports.
At the same time, the Bab el-Mandeb has become another front in the conflict, with Houthi attacks disrupting Saudi-linked shipping and limiting one of the Gulf's most important alternative export routes.
The pressure doesn't stop there.
Kazakhstan has halted exports through the CPC terminal after Ukraine's Black Sea drone campaign, leaving up to 1.7M barrels per day stranded.
Ukraine's repeated strikes have already kept roughly 1.5M barrels per day of Russian refined products offline, tightening fuel markets even further.
What makes this different from the March shock is that multiple supply routes are being squeezed simultaneously.
Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Black Sea, and Russian exports are all under pressure at the same time.
Gulf producers have far less room to replace lost barrels, global oil inventories have fallen by roughly 1.5B barrels since late February, and U.S. refineries are already running close to full capacity while fuel inventories remain relatively tight.
One thing worth watching is whether markets are becoming too complacent.
If these disruptions persist, the oil market could shift from a fuel shortage into a broader crude supply crisis, putting pressure on prices and increasing the chances of another coordinated release from strategic petroleum reserves.
Source: CFR, CNBC, Bloomberg / Writer: Lucas$HIMS $IRYS $BABA