2026: The Year Everything Breaks? 🚨
This is not fear-mongering; this is structural analysis based on converging fault lines. Forget the usual recession talk. We are looking at a systemic funding stress event centered on US Treasuries. Bond volatility (MOVE index) is screaming danger.
Fault Line 1: US Treasury Refinancing in 2026. Deficits are massive, interest costs are soaring, and foreign demand is weakening. Auctions are showing cracks.
Fault Line 2: Japan, the biggest Treasury holder, is facing USD/JPY pressure, forcing them to unwind carry trades and sell bonds, spiking US yields when we least need it.
Fault Line 3: Unresolved local debt in China causes yuan weakness, capital flight, and further upward pressure on US yields.
A single bad 10Y or 30Y auction could be the spark. Yields spike, liquidity vanishes, and risk assets like
$BTC get hammered. Central banks will inject liquidity, but this sets the stage for the next inflationary wave. Real yields drop, paving the way for Gold, Silver, and eventually, a major commodity and dollar reversal.
Pay attention to bond volatility now. A disorderly Treasury market is the true black swan.
#MacroAnalysis #TreasuryRisk #SystemShock #CryptoForecast 🧐