Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top. Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below). Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it. Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏 #Bitcoin #BTC #Halving #Cycles #HalvingCylces #BitcoinCycles #BTCcycles
Since BTC moves just as I described yesterday, just a few comments on this PA from lower timeframe perspective.
$BTC got rejected from LTF SR at 66.4k - you may see on 1H chart it had 3 attempts to return back above it with each next one forming lower fractal high ❌
Older week close at 65702 act as LTF SR zone. Now price below it and if stay that way for couple more hours, most probably will be pushed to this week open at 64695 which is within FVG left after Monday pump.
All that been described yesterday. If after that pullback #Bitcoin won't go for another breakout attempt, and drop lower to 64k, most probably that will be a beginning of upcoming collapse to 61.3 / 60.6k
If we see a bullish bounce, then we may expect next week to give another attempt to breakout towards ~70.5-72k.
Keep in mind that Weekly chart is in downtrend, so after that swing (failed or not) high chances to see 44-48k.
⏰ TG alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, 69000, 67255, 66400, 60800
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
On lower timeframes first attempt to breakout 66-67.5k resistance / range top failed, but on Daily this might be just a pause before final push. Doubt we will see pump this week - betting on the next one. Target for breakout remains the same ~70.5-72k.
If ~66.4k holds $BTC from breakout, expect re-test of 64.9k If after that price won't go for another breakout attempt, and drop lower to 64k, most probably that will be a beginning of upcoming collapse to 61.3 / 60.6k
On lower timeframes first attempt to breakout 66-67.5k resistance / range top failed, but on Daily this might be just a pause before final push. Doubt we will see pump this week - betting on the next one. Target for breakout remains the same ~70.5-72k.
If ~66.4k holds $BTC from breakout, expect re-test of 64.9k If after that price won't go for another breakout attempt, and drop lower to 64k, most probably that will be a beginning of upcoming collapse to 61.3 / 60.6k
$BTC moves into 66-67.5k resistance / range top. Either that move will drown in sell orders, or breakout higher towards ~70.5-72k. Breakout may happen fast or after some consolidation above breakout ~67k level.
Rejection from range top leads to retracement back to previous levels at ~65.5k / 64.7k - if none of those show support, dump can take price to 62.2k and eventually under 60.8k. I am not forecasting this, just pointing out the levels to watch, if that scenario happens.
Watch fair value gaps. They often pay SR role on lower timeframes, after being closed. The nearest new one on the downside is just around week open at ~64.7k - that is an attractive zone for revisit and can play support or resistance, depending on where price finds itself after the move.
Last review I gave you perfect zone for $ETH longs - Week open at 1805. Alarm in TG triggered on cross and that was the bottom of correction move.
Now #Ethereum attempting to close FVG from June 2nd. Above that gap strong order block (up to 2006 May close) acting as resistance. I believe current move can stretch there before starting a new correction move.
Before that dips to 1921 are likely. If market catch them with support, bullish plan stays valid. If let price drop lower towards 1875, that will certainly reduce bullish momentum and force ETH to continue choppy consolidation above 1840
$ETH managed to grow above 1850 (range top) and now seem to be preparing for re-test of that SR zone. Tuesday pump left several gaps behind so that dip can even stretch to week open at 1805.
On the upper side FVG from June 2nd still open. Next potential target for bullish impulse can be ~2020 zone and Weekly 20ema.
$BTC moves into 66-67.5k resistance / range top. Either that move will drown in sell orders, or breakout higher towards ~70.5-72k. Breakout may happen fast or after some consolidation above breakout ~67k level.
Rejection from range top leads to retracement back to previous levels at ~65.5k / 64.7k - if none of those show support, dump can take price to 62.2k and eventually under 60.8k. I am not forecasting this, just pointing out the levels to watch, if that scenario happens.
Watch fair value gaps. They often pay SR role on lower timeframes, after being closed. The nearest new one on the downside is just around week open at ~64.7k - that is an attractive zone for revisit and can play support or resistance, depending on where price finds itself after the move.
$BTC is setting up a sharp fakeout - expect a liquidity sweep followed by a violent reversal in the next 1-2 days. ⏳
📊 Trend Breakdown: • LTF: Uptrend • Daily: Sideways chop • HTF: Heavy Downtrend
🎯 Key Scenarios: • Upside Resistance: 66-68k. A squeeze into the 72k FVG won't fix the macro structure, but it could flipped 65k into support for an eventual HTF trend reversal. • Downside Magnet: The massive liquidity pool sitting under 60.8k since early July remains untouched. It won't stay unvisited forever—a visit is a matter of when, not if.
🌐 Macro Triggers This Week: Watch Flash PMIs (July 24) and the ECB rate decision (July 23). Expect low liquidity and headline-driven volatility until energy markets settle.
$BTC is setting up a sharp fakeout - expect a liquidity sweep followed by a violent reversal in the next 1-2 days. ⏳
📊 Trend Breakdown: • LTF: Uptrend • Daily: Sideways chop • HTF: Heavy Downtrend
🎯 Key Scenarios: • Upside Resistance: 66-68k. A squeeze into the 72k FVG won't fix the macro structure, but it could flipped 65k into support for an eventual HTF trend reversal. • Downside Magnet: The massive liquidity pool sitting under 60.8k since early July remains untouched. It won't stay unvisited forever—a visit is a matter of when, not if.
🌐 Macro Triggers This Week: Watch Flash PMIs (July 24) and the ECB rate decision (July 23). Expect low liquidity and headline-driven volatility until energy markets settle.
$BTC did it's usual thing - dipped back under Daily 20ema. Nearest liquidity pools are on the downside. In order to get anything relative in size market has to push price above ~66k. How realistic it is within bear market?
Closing week similar or lower than current price will lead to <61.4k and most probably <60.6k next week.
FA Review: Watch the tech indices closely. If the Nasdaq fails to bounce at its immediate structural support (W20ema ~28200), the broader equity weakness will likely drag BTC down. Treat any upward spikes with caution until the tech-sector distribution dries up.
Guaranteed move happened and extended towards 65.5-66k resistance zone (if you open weekly chart and put a line to ~65.8k you'll clearly see it).
Now $BTC at 1 hour OB. So either it holds and support further growth (which is just a bounce on weekly), or lose it and let price do it's usual thing - dip back under Daily 20ema, bounce, dip, bounce... till it finally either dump to 60.6k or pump to grab big liquidity pool above 67.7k and maybe cover FVG at 69.8k
FA Review: Fundamental conditions favor rangebound, defensive price action over the next few weeks. Keep a close eye on your major support zones: until the Middle East premium cools down and institutional ETF flows reverse back to positive net inflows, any upward breakouts will likely lack the volume to sustain themselves.
$ETH managed to grow above 1850 (range top) and now seem to be preparing for re-test of that SR zone. Tuesday pump left several gaps behind so that dip can even stretch to week open at 1805.
On the upper side FVG from June 2nd still open. Next potential target for bullish impulse can be ~2020 zone and Weekly 20ema.
Guaranteed move happened and extended towards 65.5-66k resistance zone (if you open weekly chart and put a line to ~65.8k you'll clearly see it).
Now $BTC at 1 hour OB. So either it holds and support further growth (which is just a bounce on weekly), or lose it and let price do it's usual thing - dip back under Daily 20ema, bounce, dip, bounce... till it finally either dump to 60.6k or pump to grab big liquidity pool above 67.7k and maybe cover FVG at 69.8k
FA Review: Fundamental conditions favor rangebound, defensive price action over the next few weeks. Keep a close eye on your major support zones: until the Middle East premium cools down and institutional ETF flows reverse back to positive net inflows, any upward breakouts will likely lack the volume to sustain themselves.
$BTC needs to revisit the 63300-63600 zone. That is more or less a guaranteed target. After that, it is unpredictable. Maybe we finally dump to ~60.8k, maybe we pump to 65.5-66k, or maybe we just stay within this range.
I don't really feel like trading this. Instead, I'll visit my mother. Its a long trip, so return home only tomorrow. And most probably will be busy with the distillery, as I've got lots of material waiting for me.
$BTC needs to revisit the 63300-63600 zone. That is more or less a guaranteed target. After that, it is unpredictable. Maybe we finally dump to ~60.8k, maybe we pump to 65.5-66k, or maybe we just stay within this range.
I don't really feel like trading this. Instead, I'll visit my mother. Its a long trip, so return home only tomorrow. And most probably will be busy with the distillery, as I've got lots of material waiting for me.
Three days in a row, I stressed that $BTC seems to have reached the top on the Daily. I'm glad to see that my intuition was right. The short-term bearish scenario is in play, and the liquidity under 60800 is getting closer and closer. I'm waiting for that move, although it could take several days to play out.
Looking at the high-timeframe situation, the dead cat bounce on the daily chart has indeed formed a local top. Keeping last week's bullish engulfing candle in mind, a bounce from 60800 could still give us a bullish continuation.
However, this chart is within a strong downtrend (and stock indices look even worse), so downside momentum remains stronger. A dip to the 58-60k range will give this market a real test; if it fails to bounce, it will breakdown heavily to 49k–52k. If magic happens and the bulls win this fight, the next HTF zone will be 68-72k.
$BTC enters choppy stage when it is especially hard to predict the move. Same POC at ~62666 supports the price, but after yesterday's flash dip I doubt we will see same fast recovery (if it dips again).
So either price will consolidate above that level with chances for breakout higher towards 65200 or the next dip finally takes BTC to 60800 liquidity pool
High timeframe situation - dead cat bounce on daily still looks like it has reached the top. Week closed with bullish engulfing, but within downtrend. I'd be prepared for re-test of 58-60k and either bounce/consolidation with next upper target 68-72k or breakdown dump to 49k–52k.
$BTC covered the FVG from June 23rd and hit my target zone 63-64k ✅ The lower magnet zone around ~60.8k now is the nearest biggest liquidity pool, so pretty high chances for US to open after long weekend with dump towards that area.
However, to kick off that correction scenario, the price needs to find acceptance under ~62666, as this zone correlates with the local POC. While trades above within LTF uptrend BTC keeps the potential to push higher. If that surprise scenario happens, make sense to wait till ~65300 before taking any action.
High timeframe situation - dead cat bounce on daily near the top. Week closed with bullish engulfing, but within downtrend on its own its not a very strong signal. I'd be prepared for re-test of 58-60k and either bounce/consolidation with next upper target 68-72k or breakdown dump to 49k–52k.
$BTC tested Daily 20EMA and took a pause ✅ While consolidates may dip to ~60.8k or continue towards 62555 / 63500. Fifty fifty. Actually both moves will happen and zones will be covered sooner or later - we just can't predict the sequence of moves.
High timeframe situation remain the same - dead cat bounce on daily near the top, or at the very beginning on weekly. Either that bounce ends around 63-64k (Daily) or extend into Weekly dead cat bounce with potential rejection zone around 68-72k. After that re-test of 58-60k and in case of breakdown dump to 49k–52k.
#Ethereum HTF POC formed during last 5.5 years is around 1570-1600. So far it acts as support.
FIVE & a HALF years Carl! So either it sends $ETH back to 2500-2750 or next time price drops below it, it will flip into heavy resistance and dump it much lower.
#Ethereum HTF POC formed during last 5.5 years is around 1570-1600. So far it acts as support.
FIVE & a HALF years Carl! So either it sends $ETH back to 2500-2750 or next time price drops below it, it will flip into heavy resistance and dump it much lower.
High timeframe situation remain the same - bearish month close holds momentum that is capable to push price lower towards 49k–52k. That means that current bounce should be monitored with that idea in mind. Waiting for a clear rejection within one of upper target zones to short it.
#Gold closed June with strong bearish momentum. It should take price lower, even if the result of that bearish more will be bullish bounce. Doesn't matter.
Inevitable target for that move located under 3900.
If $XAU bounce before the dip, watch ~4150 zone as most obvious resistance above.
June closed bearish. It looks similar to what the market showed during the 2022 correction stage. There is no sense in forecasting anything, as the next candle can be anything. However, we have several levels on the chart to watch from a high-timeframe view.
On the upside, the zone around 65k will likely act as resistance. Whether $BTC will get there before going lower or not is impossible to predict.
On the downside, the next target zone for the dips (which might act as support and cause a bounce) may be around 49k–52k.
From a lower-timeframe perspective, there is nothing interesting so far. The downtrend remains strong, and the price action hasn't given any hints of a reversal yet. The bearish monthly candle forms downside momentum that should push the price lower in any case, even if July ends up closing above 58k.