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Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended a difficult month of sustained redemptions with a meaningful shift back into positive territory, registering roughly $70 million in weekly net inflows after four consecutive weeks of heavy withdrawals.The turnaround marks the first sign of stabilization in nearly a month, during which spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $4.35 billion in assets. The worst outflows occurred during the weeks ending Nov. 7 and Nov. 21, each seeing $1.22 billion exit the category, according to SoSoValue.Bitcoin ETFs Record First Daily Inflows After Weeks of BleedingOn Friday alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $71 million, lifting cumulative net inflows since launch to $57.7 billion. Total net assets across all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs now stand at $119.4 billion, representing roughly 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market cap.The daily flows showed sharp divergence among issuers:BlackRock’s IBIT: –$113.7M outflowsFidelity’s FBTC: +$77.5M inflowsARK 21Shares ARKB: +$88M inflowsThe strong demand for non-IBIT products more than offset BlackRock’s large outflow.Ether ETFs Flip Positive With $312.6M Weekly InflowsSpot Ether ETFs also ended their three-week losing streak, logging $312.6 million in weekly inflows after suffering $1.74 billion in redemptions throughout November.Friday contributed $76.6 million in net inflows, pushing cumulative ETF inflows since launch to $12.94 billion. Total assets across U.S. spot Ether ETFs now sit near $19.15 billion, equivalent to about 5.2% of ETH’s market cap.Bitcoin May Be Forming a Short-Term BottomMarket analysts are turning cautiously optimistic.Trader Mister Crypto says Bitcoin’s RSI is nearing oversold territory while whales re-open long positions — signals that often precede relief rallies toward the $100,000–$110,000 region.Bitwise Europe’s André Dragosch argues that current BTC prices significantly understate the improving macroeconomic outlook, suggesting meaningful upside potential as rate-cut expectations strengthen.With ETF flows stabilizing and on-chain accumulation reappearing, analysts say Bitcoin may be preparing to exit its multiweek corrective phase.

Crypto and global risk assets found relief this week as expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut jumped sharply from ~30% to ~85%. The shift helped lift Bitcoin back above US$90,000, while the S&P 500 advanced 2.8%.Altcoins also recovered, but breadth remains weak: 79 of the top 100 tokens are still more than 50% below their all-time highs, underscoring how narrow this cycle’s leadership has become.Cycle-critical liquidity channels — stablecoin supply, ETF flows, and Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) issuance — have slowed in recent weeks. While newly launched altcoin ETFs continue to see steady, positive net inflows exceeding US$1.3B, broader capital rotation remains limited.Near-term direction now depends heavily on the December FOMC meeting and the upcoming nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chair, both of which will shape market expectations into year-end.Market OverviewMarkets stabilized and moved higher this week as traders gained clarity on the macro backdrop.Rate-cut probabilities for the December meeting rose rapidly from last week’s lows, leading to:Lower U.S. Treasury yieldsA softer U.S. dollar (DXY)A rebound in major risk assetsBitcoin added 4.9%, closing the week above US$90,000, while the S&P 500 gained 2.8%.Despite the rebound, activity remained subdued due to the U.S. Thanksgiving-shortened trading week, which muted both volatility and volume.As the final month of 2025 approaches, markets are focused squarely on Fed policy — both the rate decision on December 9 and the Fed chair nomination, expected before year-end. These events follow the U.S. government's record 43-day shutdown, which has temporarily distorted macro data visibility. Early releases now point toward a softening labor market, further reinforcing rate-cut expectations.1. Digital AssetsCrypto Recovers, but the Cycle Remains NarrowDigital assets climbed this week as selling pressure eased. Most major tokens gained at least 5%, though BTC and multiple large caps (excluding BNB and XRP) remain negative for the year.A broader look at the market reveals the underlying fragility:79 of the top 100 tokens are still >50% below their ATHsCorrections this cycle have widened the dispersion between majors and altcoinsMajors continue to attract liquidity; long-tail altcoins remain structurally weakSegments showing relative resilience include:Exchange/DEX tokens — supported by strong ecosystem flowsDeFi — buoyed by token buybacks and clearer fundamentalsPrivacy tokens — benefiting from growing on-chain use-case narrativesThis resilience signals where capital chooses to remain allocated during volatility.Why the Rally Remains ConcentratedEarlier in the year, when liquidity inflows were strong (stablecoins, ETFs, DATs), nearly all capital flowed into BTC and top large caps. Rotation into smaller tokens never materialized before liquidity slowed, leaving large caps disproportionately supported.A broader market recovery will require:Re-acceleration of liquidity inflows, andRotation beyond majors into mid-caps and long-tail assetsThe key liquidity drivers — stablecoins, ETFs, DAT issuance — have softened in recent months.Altcoin ETFs: A Bright SpotOne theme continues to gain traction: newly launched altcoin spot ETFs, including exposure to SOL, XRP, LTC, and DOGE.Despite recent market volatility:Altcoin ETFs have posted steady net inflowsCumulative inflows now exceed US$1.3BAdditional ETFs are awaiting approval and may broaden TradFi accessAs seen with ETH earlier in the cycle, demand often builds gradually after launch, suggesting these products may become meaningful catalysts into 2026.2. Global MarketsEquitiesEquities rose sharply as macro sentiment improved:S&P 500: +2.8%NYFANG+ Index: +3%FXThe DXY fell 0.54%, reflecting weaker labor data and rising odds of a December rate cut.CommoditiesGold continued its upward trend with a 2.88% weekly gain.BondsU.S. Treasuries strengthened on:Softer ADP payrollsA drop in consumer confidenceSigns of weakening labor conditionsVolatilityMarket volatility declined as Thanksgiving reduced trading activity and macro uncertainty temporarily eased.3. Intermarket ViewDigital assets continue to move in line with risk assets, but notable shifts emerged:BTC’s 2-month correlation with equities slipped slightlyCorrelation with gold increased to 0.32, possibly indicating a short-term rotation toward defensive hedgesThis shift typically occurs when markets transition out of acute risk-off conditions. Macro Outlook: Rate-Cut Expectations Reprice SharplyRate-cut odds surged this week as markets interpreted recent inflation and labor data as confirmation of slowing economic momentum.Key developments:Rate-cut probability for December rose from 30% to 84.7%PPI data showed further moderationLabor market indicators weakened significantlyConsumer confidence fell to its lowest level since AprilRetail sales rose only 0.2% in September — the weakest figure in four months.Markets now overwhelmingly expect a 25 bps cut at the December FOMC meeting.Upcoming Fed Chair NominationAttention is shifting toward the incoming Fed Chair.Kevin Hassett is currently the prediction-market favoriteMarkets expect a dovish lean aligned with President Trump’s preference for lower ratesHowever, the nomination remains uncertain and could move markets upon announcementHistorically, markets price in higher volatility leading into a chair appointment, depending on the perceived policy stance of the nominee.The Week Ahead: Key Events to Watch (Nov 29 – Dec 5, 2025)Major macro events this week include:U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMIU.S. ISM Services PMIEU Flash InflationJapan Consumer ConfidenceU.S. Core PCE, personal income, and spending — the most important releaseThese data points will shape rate expectations heading into the December FOMC decision and provide critical signals about the trajectory of U.S. economic momentum.

Bitcoin may be entering one of its strongest macro setups in years, with its current price severely undervaluing the economic backdrop ahead, according to Bitwise researcher André Dragosch. The analyst believes the conditions today echo the extreme yet highly rewarding environment that followed the COVID-19 crash in 2020.“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch wrote on Friday, noting that Bitcoin’s present market structure is again misaligned with forward-looking global growth trends. During March 2020, Bitcoin tumbled from about $8,000 to below $5,000 before launching into a multiyear bull run.Bitcoin is discounting a recession that may never comeDragosch argues that Bitcoin is now “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” a period defined by aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and the collapse of major crypto institutions such as FTX.“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” he said, adding that the asset has already absorbed much of the negative macro news expected for late 2025 and early 2026.That view contrasts with comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said Sunday that the United States is not on track to enter a recession next year.Despite this, Bitcoin’s price has struggled. After notching a new all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5, Bitcoin dropped sharply after a $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10. Sentiment deteriorated further after President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which triggered risk-off positioning across global markets.With Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 on Nov. 13 and briefly breaking $90,000 on Nov. 20, bullish conviction faded — but not entirely. Bitcoin recovered above $90,000 within days and has held the level since.Why Dragosch believes growth will accelerate into 2026Dragosch said that the global economy is entering a phase similar to the post-COVID recovery, driven by the lagging effects of substantial monetary stimulus pumped into the system in prior years.He expects this liquidity tailwind to continue supporting growth “well into 2026,” which would historically favor risk assets such as Bitcoin.“I genuinely think we’re staring at a similar macro setup right now,” he said.Market analysts split on whether a bear market has begunSome well-followed traders agree that the recent drawdown may not mark the start of a deeper bear cycle.Crypto analyst Alessio Rastani told Cointelegraph that similar market structures have historically led to strong rallies about 75% of the time, suggesting the current correction could be a precursor to renewed upside.BitMine chair Tom Lee also remains optimistic, saying this week he expects Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000 by year-end and potentially push into new all-time highs if volatility breaks in bulls’ favor.