Sofia _Khan

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It has risen, and the market is doing quite well.$BTC
However, it is worth noting that the 4-hour chart has already 'topped out', and the daily line is currently expected to support around 983. Pay attention to the pullback around 923-925. Today is the 3rd, and so far there are no signs of bullish exhaustion.
I noticed the remarks from various parties, and there's an interesting point everyone should avoid: when the market was in a continuous decline, the flow of funds showed that retail investors were extremely bullish, while the major players were continuously selling. Now, it’s the opposite; retail investors are extremely bearish, while the major players are buying up.
This is not how it’s done on the left side, my friends. The left side is about buying low and selling high. The premise for selling high is that you have previously bought low. There are no long positions at the bottom now, just constantly testing the highs. Who taught you to do it this way on the left side? Isn’t that just going against the trend forever? First, you touch the bottom, continuously losing, and in the end, when the losses become unbearable, you open a short position at the bottom. After being stopped out, you don’t believe it will rise, and you start testing the highs again, all the way until the losses become unbearable, and then finally you flip to a long position, hanging at the top, and when you get stopped out, you start a new round of bottom fishing. Honestly, doing this is worse than donating to Hong Kong, my friend.
If from the 5th to the 6th, a rapid rise in the 4-hour chart shows a strong bullish candle, similar to the one at 8 PM on the 2nd, and if accompanied by a quick reversal to a double top or secondary top pattern, you need to reduce your position. Whether it's reducing by 1/3 or 1/2, in short, reduce a little. It's better than going all in on the market after the 10th. We all hope it goes up, but if the same trend as the interest rate cut in November reappears, profits could drop dramatically.
For those deeply trapped in the spot market, when they see the major coin showing a 4-hour double top or secondary top pattern, those who support coin-based positions can use 1/5 of their position with a stop loss to tentatively lock in a 1x coin-based short position to test if it’s correct. If not, just close it and wait for the next position. If it’s not supporting coin-based positions, consider a small reduction in holdings and gradually do some trading.
Although the large commodity options settlement in the second half of the month could cause maximum harm to the bearish side if it rises above 100,000, the second half of the month is also mixed with the holiday effect of Christmas and the Japanese monetary policy meeting, so it’s indeed not good to be blindly optimistic. It’s better to pay attention to several key time points.
Of course, this isn’t telling you to short... don’t nitpick my words, my friend.

: Japan's 80% rate hike probability triggers a $19 trillion 'bomb'! Have you bottomed out on BTC? Remember the 2022 interest rate arbitrage disaster?
This morning BTC suddenly fell below 83000, did you think it was just a normal adjustment? I broke out in a cold sweat staring at the screen—just because of one number: 80%. The market is frantically betting on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December, with the probability soaring to 80%, and even reaching 90% in January! This is not just a rate hike; it directly ignites the fuse for the global $19 trillion yen carry trade!
For global traders, this awakens painful memories of Christmas 2022. At that time, the Bank of Japan also unexpectedly adjusted its yield curve control (YCC) policy at the December meeting, raising the upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield from 0.25% to 0.5%, triggering severe turmoil in global markets.
Considering that December 19 is right before the Christmas holiday, market liquidity is typically at its annual low, and any unexpected tightening of policy could be amplified in a weak liquidity environment, triggering a new round of 'carry trade disaster'.
For decades, the near-zero interest rate yen has been borrowed and converted into dollars to rush into US stocks and the crypto market. Once Japan raises interest rates, a massive amount of funds will instantly flow back out. The result? BTC is the first to suffer. The data doesn't lie: BTC's monthly decline exceeds 20%, $3.5 billion lost in ETFs, over $400 million in a single night liquidation... the market is as fragile as paper.
Don't forget about the Federal Reserve! Powell did not mention policy tonight, which is even more frightening—the silence often precedes the storm. If Japan tightens and the US does not provide liquidity, BTC will face a 'double whammy' situation.
Look at BNB, it has fallen to heartbreak. The new officer Lina parachuted in as the BSC growth director, but the retail investors are almost gone; what can grow? On-chain projects have dropped below CZ's buy price, and the notorious penguin has long become a 'down-and-out penguin'. But don't panic, the most urgent is not you—but the new official and the exchanges. Market rescue? Maybe it's already on the way.
Remember: closing carry trades is just a short-term shock, not the end of the world. After Japan's interest rate hike in 2024, BTC will reach new highs within three months. Key points to watch: December BOJ meeting, Federal Reserve dot plot. Don't rush to go all in; manage your positions well; surviving is the key to eating the next wave of rebound.
So, now I ask you—
Today
, did you dare to bottom out? $BTC $ETH $DOGE