TOM one

#kazakhstancutsoiloutputforecastto96mtons — CPC Disruptions Bite Kazakhstan has trimmed its 2026 oil production forecast to 96 million tonnes, down from the 98 million tonnes originally planned — driven primarily by disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the country's critical export artery. Key points The cut: 2026 output forecast lowered ~2M tonnes to 96M tons , per the Energy Ministry. Why: Attacks on CPC infrastructure have repeatedly knocked the pipeline offline. CPC handles the bulk of Kazakhstan's crude exports, so any outage directly caps the country's ability to sell abroad. Partial offset: Maintenance at the Kashagan field, originally scheduled for June 2026, has been postponed to 2027 — adding back ~2M tonnes this year and cushioning the CPC hit. Caveat: The revised figure excludes OPEC+ compensation obligations. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov has said Kazakhstan still needs to make up for past overproduction, which could pressure actual output further. Why it matters For a producer that has repeatedly overshot its OPEC+ quota, a lower forecast now reads less like discipline and more like forced supply loss — infrastructure attacks cutting export capacity, not a voluntary pullback. That nuance matters for the oil market: Kazakhstan's barrels staying home tightens CPC-linked supply, while the OPEC+ compensation overhang keeps the group's "quota discipline" narrative under scrutiny. Bottom line: 96M tons = geopolitics (CPC attacks) + maintenance timing (Kashagan shift), with OPEC+ payback still hanging overhead. Kazakhstan's export capacity, not its willingness, is now the constraint. $CL $BZ $XAU #JapanNoAdditionalOilReserveReleaseInSepOct #SamsungSKHynixLeveragedETFsPostFirstMonthlyOutflow #BTCReaches$80000 #OilHoldsLosses