GEMINI
I'm just an immature trader and a crypto lover 👋
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Crypto market liquidity is going down, which is why #stablecoin supply is shrinking. #Bitcoin now needs much more liquidity to hold its current valuation, so as long as stablecoins keep flowing out, any #BTC recovery is likely to be temporary. Liquidity can return quickly if the overall economic outlook improves, and this week’s inflation and unemployment data are important for that.
On #coinbase Advanced, which is mostly used by institutions and whales, stablecoin flows dropped sharply after the last market top, a pattern seen before at previous tops. Although flows have recently turned slightly positive, the amount is still too small to meaningfully improve the broader liquidity situation.
On #coinbase Advanced, which is mostly used by institutions and whales, stablecoin flows dropped sharply after the last market top, a pattern seen before at previous tops. Although flows have recently turned slightly positive, the amount is still too small to meaningfully improve the broader liquidity situation.
Realized losses are still dominating the market, showing that many investors bought near the top and are now selling at a loss. Even some long term holders are exiting, which highlights how difficult #Bitcoin can be to hold during volatility. The realized profit to loss ratio is currently at 0.25, meaning losses are far outweighing profits and the 7 day average is close to bear market levels, although the yearly average remains much higher.
One positive sign is that today realized profits slightly exceeded losses for the first time in weeks, which may suggest that selling pressure is starting to cool, even though panic driven selling can still continue for some time.
One positive sign is that today realized profits slightly exceeded losses for the first time in weeks, which may suggest that selling pressure is starting to cool, even though panic driven selling can still continue for some time.
#XRP is trading below its aggregate holder cost basis, which has triggered panic selling. The 7 day #EMA of SOPR has dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to around 0.96, showing that most holders are now realizing losses. On chain profitability has flipped negative, confirming broad market stress.
This setup closely matches the September 2021 to May 2022 phase, when SOPR stayed below 1 for a long period and price moved sideways before stabilizing. If this pattern holds, XRP may remain in a consolidation phase until selling pressure weakens and #SOPR reclaims the 1 level.
This setup closely matches the September 2021 to May 2022 phase, when SOPR stayed below 1 for a long period and price moved sideways before stabilizing. If this pattern holds, XRP may remain in a consolidation phase until selling pressure weakens and #SOPR reclaims the 1 level.
Market conditions around the $70k zone show unrealized losses reaching nearly 16 percent of total market capitalization, signaling elevated stress across participants. The overall structure closely mirrors what played out in early May 2022, when price action weakened under selling pressure without triggering a broader macro breakdown.
Despite continued price pressure, outflows from digital asset investment products slowed to $187 million. Historically, when capital outflows begin to ease during market weakness, it has often marked a potential inflection zone, where selling pressure cools and sentiment starts to level out ahead of a possible shift in trend.
Market data is showing a clear shift in behavior from large #Bitcoin holders during the recent price decline. On February 6, accumulator addresses absorbed roughly 66.94k BTC, the highest daily inflow recorded in this cycle. Instead of reacting with panic selling, these wallets appear to be using the dip as an opportunity to accumulate. Such patterns usually point to long term confidence and often emerge when prices are undervalued and sentiment is weak.
Since the correction began, pressure has moved from short term holders to long term holders, with the 6-12 month and 12-18 month cohorts already under water at cost bases around $103,188 and $85,849, showing that the drawdown is reaching deeper into the holder base. Price reacted near the realized price of the 18 month-2 year cohort at $63,654, a level that likely matters to higher conviction holders, but the rising cost basis of this group indicates that higher priced coins are continuing to age into long term holdings.
Rather than drifting without a reference point, #Bitcoin’s price tends to move toward the average cost paid by its holders, known as the realized price. This level reflects the collective commitment of those who hold Bitcoin balances and are willing to keep them at those prices.
When the market trades below this average, selling pressure weakens because most holders are at a loss. When it trades well above it, profit taking increases. In this way, holders themselves provide Bitcoin with value through their behavior and cost basis.
When the market trades below this average, selling pressure weakens because most holders are at a loss. When it trades well above it, profit taking increases. In this way, holders themselves provide Bitcoin with value through their behavior and cost basis.
The current #Bitcoin cycle is shaping up to be one of the tougher bear market phases on record, with prices down roughly 30% when compared to similar historical periods. A bear market here is defined as any period where Bitcoin trades below its 365 day simple moving average.
In previous cycles, price action below this level has often coincided with prolonged weakness, elevated uncertainty, and extended consolidation phases before recovery. So far, this decline places the ongoing phase among the weaker bear market performances in Bitcoin’s history.
In previous cycles, price action below this level has often coincided with prolonged weakness, elevated uncertainty, and extended consolidation phases before recovery. So far, this decline places the ongoing phase among the weaker bear market performances in Bitcoin’s history.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Trading near $60,000, price sits roughly 37% below the top 20% cost basis around $95,000, highlighting significant unrealized losses and psychological pressure on large holders. Since the October all time high, the market has repeatedly failed to hold above the cost basis of the top 1%, 5%, 10% and 20% of supply, the strongest buyers remain underwater and are likely to sell into rebounds rather than drive sustained upside. This setup closely resembles the May 2022 phase, where prolonged weakness below major cost basis levels kept sentiment fragile and upside attempts limited for an extended period.
The Realized Profit to Loss Ratio (90 day SMA) has been steadily declining since late July, despite the market reaching a second all time high in early October. Currently hovering around 1.45, the metric signals a meaningful drop in realized profitability.
While this points to increasing strain on market participants, the ratio remains above the sub 1 zone that has historically coincided with extreme capitulation, indicating that broader panic has not yet taken hold.
While this points to increasing strain on market participants, the ratio remains above the sub 1 zone that has historically coincided with extreme capitulation, indicating that broader panic has not yet taken hold.
Implied volatility has risen faster than one week realized volatility, keeping the volatility risk premium positive. That dynamic continues to favor option carry. If realized volatility cools as recent price swings fade, short option positions should retain an advantage through expiry. The current backdrop still supports short term option strategies, assuming volatility stays contained in the near term.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
#Bitcoin’s primary valuation gauge has now slipped to an all time low, a market condition never seen before. Historically, extremes like this tend to surface near phases where downside risk weakens and longer term accumulation quietly begins. Although price action may remain unstable, these moments have often aligned with the early stages of broader market recovery.
The LTH cost basis heatmap reveals a clear accumulation zone in the low $60Ks, where long term holders have built significant positions. This level continues to act as a strong foundation for price, as coins held in this range are typically less reactive to short term volatility. Above current price, sell side pressure increases near the ~$80K area, marking a critical resistance band where supply is more concentrated.
This $60K-$80K range defines the active supply zone of the market. Holding above the lower boundary suggests underlying strength, while a decisive move through $80K would indicate that existing supply has been absorbed and demand is taking control.
This $60K-$80K range defines the active supply zone of the market. Holding above the lower boundary suggests underlying strength, while a decisive move through $80K would indicate that existing supply has been absorbed and demand is taking control.
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