Esam_Trading

USDT.D is holding the weekly support for now. A break of this level will send $BTC flying and a hold/sweep will likely reverse it.

The market makers have got a taste of Longs liquidity. Its a matter of time when market buyers will get absorbed by heavy ask walls on $BTC and then market makers will be get the last meal.

⌛️ 72,300

‼️ Huge ask wall appeared at 80k level on $BTC .

Big players don’t want it above this level. Let’s see if its spoof or keps holding..

$BTC daily RSI is at the extreme levels. Be cautious out there. Everytime such levels were touched, price dumped hard.

$BTC still hasn’t even tagged its Realized Price.

Quick refresher for anyone new: Realized Price is basically the average cost basis of every $BTC in circulation — what the entire market paid on average for their coins.

Historically, every time we’ve broken below it, it’s been a full capitulation event that forced a ton of holders out. 4 out of 4 so far. Almost a perfect track record.

Bottom isn’t in yet.

Rektober is loading…

This current pump feels a lot more like a short squeeze than real strength. Designed to grab attention, suck in liquidity, and get everyone bullish again.

Survival is the key here.

The same news that pumped $BTC is now faded. The bonds yields are back to the same level when bitcoin was at 64k.

$BTC looking toppy here.

Order book depth across spot venues is sitting at -0.321 and still getting more negative. On top of that, there’s a thick wall of asks stacked around the 80k level.

After a vertical run like the one we just had, when you see heavy sell liquidity piling up at the highs + depth delta diving deeper, it’s usually a sign of distribution.
Short-term path of least resistance is sideways or lower until those 80k asks get absorbed or depth starts turning less negative.

$BTC bears aren't giving up!

Lots of sell orders from $78.5k all the way to $83.5k

🚨I HAVE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS!

So after this brutal $BTC surge the positioning has now fully ramped:

1,395 Long liquidation levels vs. only 51 Short liquidation levels.

That is a Long/Short ratio of greater than 27:1.

Even more extreme: The cumulative liquidation level delta over the last 5 days is now +47.7 BILLION $ on the Long side.

I have never seen values like this, in my entire time in the crypto market so far.

This, to me, is another sign of how irrational this current phase has become after this surge.

$BTC is in greed levels and it’s greater than the ones we had during any major crashes in the bear market. I messed up with this philosphy by closing my long early and switching to shorts early but you don’t need to repeat that mistake.

$BTC local top signs are starting to show up. Greed and FOMO is high now. When agressive buying gets absorbed, then momentum will shift.

$BTC spot order books have flipped red…

This is a warning sign to all that we cannot keep going up forever, the harder we went up the more harder we will come down.

Passive asks are stacking above price and are now starting to dominate the order book; both within the 5% and 2.5% depth ranges.

$BTC is almost 3% above the SD+3 of quarterly VWAP band. Volume is starting to dry up and soon after the buyers will get exhausted, sellers will push it to the extreme band at 70.8k level. From where acceptance below or rejection from it will determine short term move.

$BTC 30 days liquidation map😳

Almost $15 billions longs liquidity is sitting below the current price till 60k level.

Buyers need to sustain the move that rekt the shorts on wednesday. If buyers gets absorbed and sellers started selling then momentum could be turned and when that much liquidity (15:1) is skewed towards one direction, it starts acting like huge magnet.

(15m) Rising channel on $BTC and Falling channel on USDT.D.

Two inversely related patterns have been formed. Late longs will be punished next

This is the Fear & Greed chart.
Every time $BTC volume exploded past $1B, heavy liquidations hit, and greed peaked — price got dumped hard.
It’s go hard or go home time.

$2.77 billion shorts have been liquidated in the past 24 hours. $BTC is in the yellow zone where I’m expecting a deviation. Swing shorts area from 72-75k and targets still remain 65k, 58k and 48k levels. Major bearish trend will be invalidated if we get a strong 4h candle above previous swing high at 82k level.

If we get a 4H candle closure above 72k then 76-78k are highly probable but ideal swing position would be to DCA from 72-78k and 1D closure above 82k will invalidate it.

Yesterday was an insane pump for $BTC ; the price broke a compression range between 61k and 65.5k, and historic shorts liquidation figures were reported in a single day. What will happen next?

Don't FOMO yourself into missing the bottom and listening to the cacophony on social media because the price is still in a strong negative trend. Keep an eye on the price movement in front of you at all times.

What I'm expecting here is that we previously rejected from EMA 200 (1D) and dumped, last time I called the 83k as local top based on this if you remember. Now we are approaching it again and also we have yearly VWAP above us as well at the same level. The golden fib level is where I'm expecting price to deviate and enter back into the 67,400 level. If it does that than the supply from previous dump could be copied perfectly. Note that every timeframe is in extreme overbought condition, so it will eventually cool down.

Since shorts are driven out of the markets and we can expect one more hunting of shorts but the imbalance of liquidation cluster is skewed heavily towards longs, almost $10 billion longs liquidation is at 62k level.

Invalidation of analysis will be above 72,000 for strong 4H candle.

Targets if price deviates and get back below the crucial level I marked will be 62k,58k,52k and 48k.

😳 This is the single biggest short liquidations in $BTC history.
$10 billion dollar liquidations sit at 62k level. I don’t think bottom is in yet. We might head below 60k sooner or later.

On the 2H timeframe, $ETH is forming a bearish divergence. Furthermore, as I previously stated, the larger pattern that is emerging is still a distribution pattern. Not only have we seen some distribution in the larger pattern, but Spot CVD has recently decreased in response to this move up from Monday's low of 1,870, while OI and perpetuals longs continued to pile.

From the current market price to levels such as 1930, 1940, 1960, and 1980, short limitations are accumulated. Ethereum's gamma exposure has also been positive this week, so any pump will be met with dealers selling it; hence, if the price rises, don't anticipate a breakout. Every pump is an indication of a dump.

1️⃣Invalidation is still at 2,020.

2️⃣The targets are still 1850, 1800, 1,730, and 1,660.