CryptoQuant Quicktake

In this post, I will show how this latest drop caused more pain than the previous one, even though the price is trading above the 2025 ATL. For this purpose, I will use: several Anchored VWAPs, the Realized Price of the New Whales, Supply in Loss, and Japanese candles with volume incorporated.

• Areas 1–2: The AVWAP anchored from Trump’s election victory (November 5, 2024) proved highly effective. That day, the closing price was 69k USD. In total, 19 daily candles used this AVWAP as support. This area was defended by buyers for months until the breakdown on February 24. On that date, the price closed below this AVWAP, confirming that sellers had taken control of the market since that event.

• Areas 3–5: The AVWAP anchored from Bitcoin’s fourth halving acted as support on two occasions during the tariff-driven low. At this ATL, the price closed above the Realized Price of the New Whales, and more than 5M BTC were in loss.

• Area 6: Then, on April 22, the price closed above the AVWAP anchored from Trump’s election victory, confirming that buyers had regained control of the market from that day.

• Areas 7–15: The new uptrend began to weaken once the price repeatedly used the AVWAP anchored to the 2025 ATL as support. At the same time, it was unable to close consistently with volume above the AVWAP anchored to its latest ATH, and that AVWAP still has a negative slope, showing the lack of new demand. Then, just like on February 24, the price closed below the AVWAP anchored from Trump’s election victory.

• Area 16: The price used the AVWAP anchored to the fourth halving as support again, but this time it closed below the Realized Price of the New Whales, something that had not happened since April 2022, and there were 7M BTC in loss, 2M more than in April. The last time there were this many BTC in loss after an ATH was in January 2022.

• All these indicators show that we are in an undervaluation stage, making it a favorable context to start long-term DCA buying.

Written by _OnChain

The LTH–STH ratio reading on Binance, the leading Bitcoin trading platform, indicates a significant shift in market behavior. The index surged to 2.63 on its highest level since last August—reflecting a radical change in buying and selling dynamics. This sharp rise coincides with Bitcoin trading around $90,000, suggesting strong sell-off activity, particularly from long-term investors.

The rise in the LTH SOPR to 2.58 is a clear indication that long-term holders—the most influential group in overall market trends—are currently realizing substantial profits compared to their initial investment. When the LTH–STH ratio moves this sharply, especially when reaching a multi-month high, it often reflects a period of selling pressure that typically precedes a correction or a pullback in upward momentum, particularly in the absence of opposing buying from new investors.

On the other hand, the STH SOPR is currently at 0.98, indicating that short-term investors are selling either at breakeven or at a slight loss. This divergence reflects a structural imbalance in the market: long-term investors are capturing substantial profits and capitalizing on previous rallies to sell off, while short-term investors are unable to achieve clear gains—often leading to accelerated selling pressure if price declines intensify.

Historically, large gaps between the LTH and STH SOPR, especially when the overall index rises above 2, have marked critical moments in Bitcoin market cycles. This behavior suggests that the market is entering a “cash-for-profit” phase led by major holders. With the index reaching its highest level since August, the surge further indicates that the current sell-off is not a temporary fluctuation but part of a broader price rebalancing phase that could extend over the coming weeks.

Written by Arab Chain

Cost basis data helps us understand where we stand in the cycle, and right now, it paints a clear map of key zones.

The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits around 104.5K — and has acted as the first major support and resistance in bull trends. After breaking below it, we’d need to reclaim and hold above this level to reestablish a healthy uptrend. Until then, price action below it still reflects short-term weakness.

Zooming out, the US ETF Cost Basis is currently around 79K. While it’s a relatively new metric, it reflects the average acquisition price of institutional-grade players. A move below this level could trigger position stress, asset rebalancing, or even forced exits in certain cases — especially where leverage is involved. It’s a level likely to be defended.

Below that, we have the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis, the lowest among the three — and often a region where market bottoms begin to form. These participants are known for buying at value and waiting patiently through volatility.

So where do we go from here?

If we reclaim 104.5K and hold, the path to new highs opens again. But if we lose momentum and revisit the 79K region, it could put the market under pressure — structurally and psychologically.

Will 79K come first, or will 104.5K be reclaimed? That’s the key question now.

Written by RugaResearch

The chart clearly shows that right after the recent price drop, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have turned downward again. Such declines in exchange reserves typically reflect positively on price because a decrease in BTC held on exchanges indicates reduced spot sell liquidity. This is especially meaningful after a volatile period, as falling reserves are often one of the first strong signs that selling pressure is weakening.

A decline in reserves usually means BTC is moving from hot wallets to cold storage, reflecting a hodling behavior. As exchange liquidity tightens, even relatively small buy orders can push the price upward more easily, allowing resistances to break with less effort.

The recent downtrend in Binance’s reserves could technically support another retest of the $110K level. The chart also shows that price continues to move within the upper band of a broad ascending channel. Combined with the current reserve drop, this structure makes a move toward $110K technically feasible.

Even though the reserve data still maintains a broader bullish structure, my technical view is that we have entered a bearish season and the market is currently in a corrective phase. However, as long as reserves do not start increasing again, this upward wave may continue for a while. Therefore, if BTC reacts positively from its current position with continued reserve contraction, the formation of a new impulsive leg toward the $110K region appears technically quite likely.

Written by PelinayPA

The Exchange BTC Leverage Pulse (ST-ELR) shows one of the most stable leverage environments in recent months, even as Bitcoin moves through sharp swings. By comparing exchange open interest to stablecoin reserves, the metric captures how stretched or relaxed leverage actually is on centralized exchanges. Right now, it’s pointing to a market that remains unusually disciplined.

Following the heavy deleveraging wave in early November, ST-ELR dropped toward its lower band and has since settled close to its 20-day average. The latest reading near 0.39–0.40 sits firmly inside the neutral zone and far from the upper risk boundary. This means the recent price rallies have not been accompanied by aggressive long buildup, and the recent decline hasn’t triggered panic leverage spikes either. Open interest is steady, reserves remain strong, and traders aren’t chasing the market with risky positions.

This type of behavior typically reflects a market in recovery mode. Rather than speculative leverage driving moves, spot flows and controlled futures activity are shaping price action. When leverage resets like this and stays moderate, it often forms the base for healthier and more sustainable trends because rallies built on low-risk conditions tend to be more durable.

In short, the BTC Leverage Pulse confirms that exchanges remain calm, well-collateralized, and free from the kind of excessive leverage that usually precedes instability. Despite volatility, the market is moving with caution, not euphoria — a constructive signal for the next phase.

Written by Crazzyblockk

On Binance, the 7-day cumulative exchange inflow value has shifted into a persistently higher regime. For most of 2025, the “Normal” band hovered around ~$8B, but since Aug 2025 this metric has not dropped below ~$11B - even during local cool-offs.

This means dollar value is consistently entering Binance at a pace well above the yearly baseline. It doesn’t automatically imply aggressive selling, but it does signal that more capital - and potentially more coins - are being positioned on the exchange, increasing available sell-side liquidity.

Structurally elevated inflows like this often align with phases of rotation rather than pure accumulation: Large players move size onto the exchange, giving the market more room for distribution if conditions turn Risk-Off.

P.S. Part of this dynamic can be influenced by internal flows, wallet-cluster updates, or changes in the asset’s own price - all of which affect dollar-denominated metrics 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

supply imbalance between Ethereum and Bitcoin has been partially alleviated through the recent price decline, but it has not been fully resolved.

Even before a clear correction has taken place, the imbalance indicators are beginning to rise again.

This structural imbalance will likely require more time to stabilize,

and I believe Bitcoin’s price also needs additional time before it can fully settle into a stable range.

Written by Mignolet

A bull market is a process in which retail investors buy the holdings that whales accumulated balance. As this process progresses, prices rise and retail investors increase their buying.

Whales buy lower price and sell when prices rise. On the other hand, retail investors sell when prices fall and buy when prices rise.

The real rally begins when the whales stop buying and start selling.

Some whales are starting to inflow $BTC to exchanges. Binance's reserves are also increasing.

Whales are preparing for a bull market rally.

Written by CW8900

Technical & On-Chain Outlook:

After losing the $90K support level, Bitcoin has settled into a clear Range Zone between $70,000 and $90,000.

As seen on the technical chart, price action found support near the Point of Control (POC) and is now rallying to test the Range High at $90K.

Binance Netflows: Bearish Divergence Appears

Binance’s 7-day cumulative netflow data highlights a potentially bearish setup:

1. Heavy Asset Inflows (Bearish Signal)

Large amounts of crypto assets have been deposited into Binance:

$2 Billion in BTC

$500M in XRP

$315M in ETH

Such large inflows typically indicate an intention to sell.

2. Weak Stablecoin Buying Power

Stablecoin movements show limited demand:

$1.4B USDT flowed into the exchange

$665M USDC flowed out

➡️ Net stablecoin inflow: ~$735 Million

This represents the actual available buying power on Binance.

Conclusion

A clear supply-demand imbalance is forming:

Potential selling pressure: ~$2.8B (Crypto assets)

Available buying power: ~$0.735B (Stablecoins)

This strongly suggests that short-term investors are preparing to sell at the range ceiling.

Without a renewed wave of stablecoin liquidity, a clean breakout above $90K is unlikely.

A rejection from the range high and continuation within the $70K–$90K range appears to be the more probable scenario.

Written by CryptoOnchain

1. The PNL Index and price action reveal the following regarding major holders:

Loss Digestion: Whales' Realized P/L has already gone through a round of extreme loss capitulation.

Critical Silence: Crucially, whales are neither aggressively selling nor actively buying—their behavior has entered a "Freeze."

On-Chain Significance: This Freeze typically occurs after massive selling pressure has been exhausted, but before new buying momentum has fully kicked off. This is a classic hallmark of the "Pre-Bottoming Transition Phase."

2. Fund Flow Reversal: Accumulation Awaits a Catalyst

The upward curve of the Fund Volume provides key insight into the buying side:

While the price is declining, Fund Volume (institutional transaction volume) shows a clear upward trend. This confirms that institutions have begun accumulation, but their activity is still in a "tranche-buying" phase, not a full "all-in" offensive.

Market Pattern: This "accumulate but don't rush" rhythm means the market is in a "Bottoming Accumulation Phase → Waiting for Ignition," anticipating a clearer macro or liquidity signal.

3. Price vs. Market Cap：The relationship between Price and Market Cap confirms the solidity of the structural support (Higher high/Higher low):

Valuation Floor: Although price volatility remains high and market is in extreme fear, the Market Cap has stabilized above the $1.8T level.

Structural Meaning: This pattern signals that large amounts of capital are consistently absorbing supply in this range (despite bearish sentiment), meaning the market's overall valuation floor has likely been established after the prior sell-off.

The current market state can be summarized as a clear sequence:

Selling pressure is exhausted → Buying (Institutional) is starting to flow → Market is waiting for a catalyst → A structural bottom is gradually forming.

This current transition period is essential for consolidating strength before the next sustained movement.

Written by Sunny Mom

Data from the MVRV ratio and the Ethereum Realized Price on indicate that the market is undergoing a delicate phase, reflecting a clear shift in the supply and demand balance. According to the latest data from , Ethereum is trading at around $3,000, while theRealized Price stands at $2,315 and the MVRV at 1.27. This means the market price is only 27% higher than the Realized Price, a level that falls within neutral territory—far from both overbought and oversold conditions.

On the other hand, data from Binance, the leading trading platform, show that Ethereum’s MVRV ratio reflects a distinct shift in market structure. In line with this key on-chain indicator, the MVRV is currently hovering around 0.999, just below the historically significant 1.0 level—a pivotal threshold in investor behavior. A drop below 1 indicates that market capitalization is converging with the REP, suggesting that most investors have entered a "no-profit, no-loss" zone. This area typically represents the beginning of a market bottom or, at the very least, a prolonged period of price weakness.

Historically, high MVRV levels (above 3) indicate overbought market phases, reflecting significant unrealized gains that prompt investors to sell. Conversely, very low readings (below 1) indicate troughs, where investors trade at unrealized losses, making the market less vulnerable to additional selling pressure. The current reading around 1.27 suggests a relative balance between buyers and sellers, without clear signs of overvaluation or oversold conditions.

At the same time, the long-term realized price trend remains relatively stable, indicating that the network’s fundamentals have not been significantly disrupted. This supports medium-term market stability unless a sharp decline pushes the MVRV below 1.

Written by Arab Chain

Insights:

Area 1: The price used the New Whales’ Realized Price as support.

Area 2: In April 2022, the price closed below the RP.

Areas 3 and 4: The price traded below the RP for more than a year and used it as resistance for months.

Area 5: The price closed above the RP, initiating a clear uptrend.

Area 6: The price closed below the RP again. The last time this happened was in April 2022.

Written by _OnChain

Data from Binance, the leading exchange by trading volume, indicates a critical phase in the Bitcoin cycle, where price action intersects with cyclical indicators and clearly weakening momentum. Bitcoin is trading near $91,000 after a period of sharp fluctuations and rebounds from local highs This decline coincides with cycle indicators suggesting that Bitcoin is entering a delicate transitional phase It has been 586 days since the last halving, meaning we are in the middle of the second half of the current cycle a phase typically characterized by increased volatility and reduced momentum compared to the beginning of the cycle.

The Z-Score indicator is showing a negative reading of -1.81, marking one of its lowest levels since last March and indicating that Bitcoin is currently trading below its expected historical value compared to previous cycles This points to a clear weakening of medium-term momentum, especially given the price’s tendency to trade below key moving averages such as the 30 day and 90 day SMA, while the 200 day SMA is acting as a dynamic resistance zone reflecting increasing selling pressure The cycle_return indicator is also showing a negative value, indicating a slowdown in cyclical returns compared to the peak reached after the recent upward trend in the first half of 2025. The days into cycle indicator shows that the current cycle has been within the 52-day period following the recent peak, which is consistent with normal corrective behavior within a historical context, but requires close monitoring of liquidity and reserves on trading platforms.

the $90,000 level becomes a pivotal support. A break below this level could open the door to a deeper correction, while holding above it provides an opportunity to establish a solid base for a retest of resistance.

Written by Arab Chain

Since 2020, major economies have repeatedly expanded liquidity.

Rate-cut expectations in the U.S., China’s stimulus, Japan’s fiscal spending, and Europe’s funding programs all point in the same direction: more money entering the system.

This leads many investors to compare global M2 with Bitcoin.

Indeed, the surge in M2 during 2020–21 matched Bitcoin’s historic bull run.

But over the past five years, the statistical correlation has averaged only around 0.5.

In tightening periods like 2022–23, Bitcoin moved independently of M2.

Money supply sets the macro background, but it does not reliably predict BTC price.

A far more accurate, real-time indicator is Stablecoin Total Supply.

CryptoQuant data shows ERC20 stablecoin supply has climbed to over $160B in 2025 — an all-time high.

This growth is more consistent than Bitcoin’s price and directly reflects capital entering the crypto ecosystem.

Stablecoin supply matters because:

1. It is the primary liquidity source for trading, DEXs, lending, and derivatives.

2. It adjusts quickly, capturing investor flows faster than monthly/quarterly M2 data.

3. It tracks institutional and ETF-related inflows into crypto.

In both the 2021 bull market and the 2024–2025 recovery, rising stablecoin supply clearly preceded Bitcoin’s upside.

When supply accelerates, liquidity expands and the market strengthens.

When it stalls, momentum cools.

Global M2 explains long-term liquidity trends, but stablecoin supply is the true heartbeat of the crypto market.

With supply at record highs in 2025, underlying buying power continues to build — making it one of the most important indicators for Bitcoin’s next moves.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Recent data shows that whale inflows to Binance reached $7.5B over the past 30 days, the highest level in a year. Because Binance is the largest exchange and a major liquidity venue, large holders often move funds there during periods of market stress or when prices approach key levels.

The current spike in inflows is similar to patterns seen in earlier high-volatility periods, such as March 2025, when Bitcoin moved from around $102K to the low $70K range. In those situations, whales typically send funds to exchanges either to take profit or to manage risk when the market weakens. With the 30-day inflow measure still climbing, the data does not yet suggest that selling pressure has stabilized.

For investors, this mainly means that the risk zone has not fully cleared. Large inflows toward exchanges often act as a pressure gauge: they indicate that capital is mobilizing, but not necessarily when a trend reversal will occur. In the previous comparable period, it took about a month before the market found a local bottom.

Written by maartunn

Since October 10, Bitcoin has seen a sharp correction, dropping from 123,000 to a low of 83,000, and is currently trading around $90,000. Typically, market corrections lead to capital flight. However, Binance, the largest centralized exchange, is signaling a massive accumulation event.

The Data: An All-Time High Divergence

While Bitcoin’s price trended downward, the Stablecoin Exchange Reserve on Binance defied market sentiment, surging to an unprecedented level.

Previous Level: ~$32 Billion

Current Level: Over $50 Billion (New All-Time High)

This creates a striking divergence: price is falling, but buying power has reached its highest point in history. Over $18 billion has been added to the reserves in a short period.

On-Chain Interpretation

This record-breaking accumulation represents massive “Dry Powder.”

Capital Retention: Investors are not cashing out to fiat banks; they are converting to stablecoins and keeping funds on the exchange, ready to deploy.

Bullish Setup: A historical peak in stablecoin reserves usually precedes significant volatility to the upside. The market now has $50 billion in purchasing power acting as a potential floor.

Conclusion

The market is not losing liquidity; it is reloading. The fact that Binance stablecoin reserves are at an All-Time High suggests that smart money is positioned for a strong re-entry. Once the selling pressure from weak hands is exhausted, this $50 billion wall of capital is likely to fuel the next major leg up.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Ethereum's real-time trading volume data across all platforms reveals a particularly significant phase in the market's trajectory during 2025. Ethereum experienced wide fluctuations in its monthly activity, with trading volume initially falling to around $280–$380 billion before experiencing a strong surge mid-year, culminating in a peak of over $599 billion in August. Following this sharp rise, activity eased slightly but remained relatively high at around $375 billion by the end of November, a level that reflects continued market participation despite prevailing price pressures.

This surge in trading volume directly reflects increased market liquidity and traders' engagement with the rapid ups and downs Ethereum experienced throughout the year. Macroeconomic conditions also contributed to the heightened trading activity, particularly with changes in futures markets, the actions of large traders, and rising institutional demand through regulated investment products.

In this context, data shows that Ethereum’s trading volume on Binance alone reached approximately $198 billion during November, confirming the platform’s dominance over real-time liquidity flows and its ability to directly influence price movements. This dominance highlights the reliance of traders both institutional and individual on Binance as a primary venue for executing high-volume transactions.

On the other hand, Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) played a significant role in boosting institutional activity, with trading volume reaching nearly $35 billion. This figure clearly indicates increased participation from traditional investors, adding an additional layer of organized liquidity to the market.

Written by Arab Chain

A critical divergence has emerged in Binance’s on-chain data. While surface-level metrics suggest high selling pressure, a deeper look reveals that long-term investors remain unmoved.

Data Analysis

Despite the recent downward price action for Bitcoin, the Exchange Inflow Volume (USD) to Binance has surged significantly. The inflow volume has more than doubled, jumping from approximately 540 million to over 1.3 billion. Typically, such a spike in inflows during a price drop indicates intense selling pressure.

However, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric tells a completely different story.

In mid-September, CDD spiked above 11,000, signaling the movement of old coins. Currently, despite the massive $1.3B inflow, the CDD has collapsed to a negligible level of 914.

On-Chain Interpretation

This extreme divergence—High Inflow vs. Low CDD—provides a clear insight into the market composition:

Short-Term Holder Capitulation: Low CDD implies that the coins being deposited to Binance are “young.” These are coins purchased recently. This suggests that the current selling pressure is driven by Short-Term Holders (STHs) and “weak hands” who are panic selling at a loss or break-even due to the price correction.

Diamond Hands are Holding: If long-term whales or early investors were exiting the market, CDD would be spiking alongside the inflow volume. The lack of CDD activity confirms that Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are not participating in this sell-off.

Conclusion

The current market structure on Binance indicates a flush-out of speculative traders, while the smart money and long-term believers remain steadfast. Historically, high capitulation by short-term holders, unaccompanied by long-term holder selling, often signals a healthy market reset and a potential local bottom.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The recent trend in Ethereum futures-to-spot activity reveals a meaningful rotation in trader behavior. Over the last several days, ETH’s futures-to-spot ratio has pushed steadily higher, climbing from the mid-5 range to nearly 6.9 on the latest reading. This rising multiple shows that speculative interest around ETH is expanding at a faster pace than spot market participation, suggesting traders are increasingly positioning through leveraged markets rather than accumulating through spot.

Compared with other major assets in the dataset, ETH now carries the strongest futures appetite relative to its spot volume. While Bitcoin and Solana maintain stable ratios in the 3.5–4.5 zone, ETH consistently leads the pack and is widening the gap. This divergence highlights an emerging imbalance: traders are choosing directional exposure in ETH more aggressively than in other large assets, and the build-up of futures participation may reflect rising expectations for volatility or upcoming catalysts specific to the Ethereum ecosystem.

The consistency of this upward trajectory matters. A rising futures multiple typically forms when market participants anticipate stronger short-term price movement, and the data indicates that ETH traders are increasingly positioning ahead of potential trend acceleration. Whether this leads to continued upside momentum or short-term volatility, the behavior reflects elevated conviction and a clear shift toward derivatives-driven trading dynamics in Ethereum.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Data from Binance indicates that monthly Bitcoin inflows to the platform reached their highest level since the beginning of the year in November, totaling approximately 237,000 Bitcoin. This figure represents a significant jump compared to previous months and confirms the recent surge in trading activity on the platform. Despite the market volatility witnessed in the middle of the year, the return of inflows to this level reflects a shift in trader behavior, particularly among active traders who rely on rapid market movements.

This substantial increase in inflows comes at a time when the price of Bitcoin is trading around $91,000, as shown in the price curve chart. It is worth noting that a rise in inflows is typically accompanied by an increased likelihood of selling pressure, especially when this movement coincides with a relative weakening of the upward trend or a decline in buying activity. While the price had previously reached higher levels earlier in the year, the return of inflows of this magnitude suggests that investors currently prefer increasing the liquidity available for selling on exchanges.

On the other hand, the data reveals a clear pattern: the market transitioned from a period of declining inflows in mid-2025 to a sharp rise at the start of the fourth quarter of the year. This shift is often linked to profit-taking or position reallocation before year-end, as well as heightened market sensitivity to changes in liquidity.

November’s data shows that Binance is experiencing its highest liquidity inflow of the year, marking a pivotal point for understanding the next price direction. If inflows continue at this pace, the market may face further downward pressure, especially given the current weak buying momentum and the price trading around $91,000 a sensitive level for market movement in the coming period.

Written by Arab Chain