Burak Macro Crypto

Le Bitcoin vient de passer la première partie de son test macro de résistance — mais la partie la plus difficile pourrait arriver ensuite.
La Fed a relevé ses taux de 25 points de base à 3,75 %–4,00 % et a laissé entendre qu’un resserrement supplémentaire pourrait encore être nécessaire.
La réaction immédiate entre classes d’actifs compte : le dollar américain a grimpé jusqu’à un plus haut sur sept semaines, les rendements des Treasuries à court terme ont augmenté et les marchés ont fortement réévalué à la hausse la probabilité d’une nouvelle hausse des taux avant la fin de l’année.
Pourtant, $BTC continue de se maintenir autour de la zone des 76 K$ plutôt que d’étendre la baisse.
Cette résilience mérite d’être surveillée, mais je ne la confondrais pas avec une confirmation.
La question suivante est de savoir si le Bitcoin peut continuer à absorber un dollar plus fort et des conditions financières plus strictes une fois que la réaction initiale post-Fed se sera dissipée. Si $BTC commence à reprendre les niveaux perdus pendant que le dollar reste ferme, ce serait un signal plus intéressant d’une demande sous-jacente.
Pour l’instant, je surveille la force relative plutôt que d’essayer de prédire la prochaine bougie.
Quel signal serait le plus important pour vous ici : $BTC qui reconquiert 78 K$, ou le dollar et les rendements des Treasuries qui commencent à se calmer ?
#Bitcoin #Macro

Bitcoin is facing two very different stress tests at the same time.
$BTC is trading around the mid-$75K area after the U.S. Senate failed to advance major crypto market-structure legislation, triggering a broader risk-off move across digital assets.
But the leverage reset may be just as important as the headline itself.
Roughly $570M in bullish crypto futures positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with BTC and $ETH taking the largest share of the long liquidations.
Now the market immediately faces another catalyst: the Fed.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are still hovering near 5%, while markets are pricing a high probability of a 25bp rate hike today.
That makes the next reaction particularly interesting. If Bitcoin stabilizes after both a regulatory disappointment and a leverage flush while yields remain elevated, that would tell us more about underlying demand than yesterday's pre-Fed price action did.
I’m watching the reaction after the Fed rather than trying to predict the first move.
After this leverage reset, what would you watch first for confirmation — $BTC reclaiming lost levels or Treasury yields moving back below 5%?
#bitcoin #Macro

Bitcoin is holding up surprisingly well against a much tougher macro backdrop.
$BTC remains around the $77K–$78K area while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have pushed toward 5% and markets are pricing a high probability of a Fed rate hike this week.
Normally, higher yields and tighter financial conditions are a headwind for risk assets.
That makes Bitcoin's relative strength worth watching.
My key level isn't just whether BTC can trade above $78K before the Fed decision — it's whether buyers can defend the move after the decision, when liquidity expectations are repriced.
A strong hold after the Fed would be constructive. A rejection alongside rising yields would make the rally much less convincing.
What are you watching more closely this week: Bitcoin strength or macro liquidity?
#Bitcoin #Macro