CryptoQuant Quicktake

• The market has recovered in the short term, but at the macro level, price action, on-chain data, and derivatives show that Bitcoin is still in a downtrend. The analysis across the three areas is presented in the images.

• The analysis covers: Bitcoin price on the weekly timeframe (including the SMA50 and Anchored VWAPs from the Fourth Halving and the latest ATH), Open Interest on the 3-day timeframe, Realized Cap on the weekly timeframe, NUPL and Supply in Loss.

Written by _OnChain

In the current derivatives landscape, pessimism regarding XRP is evident: the XRP Ledger: Funding Rates - Binance has hit a negative level of -0.00292847, signaling that sellers (shorters) are dominating the narrative and paying premiums to maintain their positions. This selling bias is reinforced by the XRP Ledger: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance at 0.9723, while the price consolidates in the $1.4394 region, with a 3.34% weekly retraction.

SHORT SQUEEZE

Technically, this excess of leveraged short positions creates the ideal environment for a Short Squeeze. As a backdrop, the XRPL: Speculation-to-Utility Ratio at 1.3827, sustained by an On-Chain Settlement Volume (XRP) of 298.15M, ensures that the network maintains a solid base of real utility. Should the price break local resistances, the lack of spot liquidity will force a cascading closure of futures contracts (Shorts), propelling the asset in a parabolic manner.

INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION

In the final analysis, the XRP Ledger today exhibits a rare technical setup that defies this market sentiment through aggressive accumulation by large players. The absolute highlight lies in the XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance, which recorded a net outflow of -7.7854M XRP in the last 24 hours, drastically exceeding the 30-day moving average (XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance-SMA(30) of -1.1536M). Although the XRP Ledger: Whale to Exchange Transactions - Binance indicator jumped to 3,049 transactions — well above the SMA-7 average (751) — the final negative balance confirms that the magnitude of the institutional outflow is prioritizing cold custody, signaling accumulation.

Written by GugaOnChain

The XRP Ledger today exhibits a rare technical setup that defies current market sentiment. While the price consolidates in the $1.4394 region, with a 3.34% weekly retraction, flow data suggests aggressive accumulation by large players. The absolute highlight lies in the XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance, which recorded a net outflow of -7.7854M XRP in the last 24 hours. This movement drastically exceeds the 30-day moving average (XRP: Exchange Netflow - Binance-SMA(30) of -1.1536M), evidencing an accelerated drain of the supply available on the exchange.

SELLING BIAS

Although the XRP Ledger: Whale to Exchange Transactions - Binance indicator has jumped to 3,049 transactions — well above the SMA-7 average (751) — the final negative balance confirms that institutional flow is prioritizing cold custody. In the derivatives scenario, pessimism is evident: the XRP Ledger: Funding Rates - Binance reached the negative level of -0.00292847, signaling that sellers (shorters) are dominating the narrative and paying to maintain their positions. The selling bias is reinforced by the XRP Ledger: Taker Buy Sell Ratio - Binance at 0.9723.

SHORT SQUEEZE

In the final analysis, as a backdrop, the XRPL: Speculation-to-Utility Ratio at 1.3827, sustained by an On-Chain Settlement Volume (XRP) of 298.15M, ensures that the network maintains a solid base of real utility. Technically, the convergence between the sharply declining supply on Binance and the excess of leveraged short positions creates the ideal environment for a Short Squeeze. Should the price break local resistances, the lack of spot liquidity will force a cascading closure of futures contracts (Shorts), propelling the asset in a parabolic manner.

Written by GugaOnChain

The Bitcoin market is currently showing a strong increase in bearish positioning. This is clearly visible in derivatives data.

According to CryptoQuant analyst G a a h (@gaah_im), Funding rates, which reflect the balance between long and short positions, have dropped into deeply negative territory. This means more traders are betting on price declines, and importantly, they are paying to maintain those short positions. In other words, the market is not just bearish — it is confidently bearish.

At the same time, open interest (OI) is rising. OI represents the total number of outstanding positions that have not yet been closed. When OI increases, it means more capital is being committed to active bets in the market.

What matters here is the composition of those bets. Since funding rates are negative, the growing OI is largely driven by short positions. This creates a structure where the market is increasingly positioned for further downside.

However, this setup carries a critical implication. Short positions must eventually be closed, and if price begins to rise, these traders are forced to buy back, creating upward pressure. This is known as a short squeeze.

Historically, periods of extremely negative funding have often preceded sharp upward moves, not continued declines. That said, this does not guarantee an immediate bullish trend. Rather, it signals a buildup of latent energy that can lead to increased volatility.

In essence, the market is in a phase of extreme pessimism while simultaneously accumulating the conditions for a potential rebound.

Written by XWIN Japan

The Bitcoin market is currently showing a clear shift toward bearish positioning, and this is most visible in derivatives data. Funding rates have dropped into deeply negative territory, meaning more traders are betting on price declines. In perpetual futures, funding reflects the balance between long and short positions. When it is negative, short traders are not only dominant but are also paying to maintain those positions. This suggests a strong conviction that prices will fall.

At the same time, open interest (OI) is rising. OI measures the total number of open, unsettled positions in the market. In simple terms, it shows how much “active betting” is taking place. When OI increases, it indicates that more positions are being added and leverage is building.

What makes the current setup unique is the combination of rising OI and negative funding. This implies that the increase in positions is largely driven by shorts, not longs. The market is not just bearish in sentiment—it is structurally positioned for further downside.

However, this creates a paradox. When too many traders are positioned in one direction, the market becomes vulnerable to moves in the opposite direction. Short positions must eventually be closed by buying back, especially if prices start to rise. This can trigger a chain reaction known as a short squeeze, where forced buying accelerates upward price movement.

Historically, extreme negative funding has often preceded sharp rallies rather than continued declines. It signals not just pessimism, but overcrowded positioning. While this does not guarantee an immediate uptrend, it does mean that volatility is likely to increase as these positions unwind.

In conclusion, the market is currently defined by excessive bearish positioning, but also by the buildup of potential rebound energy. The key factors to watch are spot demand, normalization of funding rates, and whether OI shifts from short-dominated to more balanced positioning.

Written by XWIN Japan

• The market has recovered in the short term, but at the macro level, price action, on-chain data, and derivatives show that we are still in a downtrend. The analysis across the three areas is presented in the images.

• The analysis includes: Bitcoin price on the weekly timeframe (including the SMA50 and Anchored VWAPs from the Fourth Halving and the latest ATH), Open Interest on the 3-day timeframe, Realized Cap on the weekly timeframe, NUPL and Supply in Loss.

• I used Japanese candlesticks as a method to represent all the market data analyzed in this post.

• The objective of doing this is to use the same data visualization method across different areas, thereby unifying the analytical framework to seek cross-domain confluence.

• If you would like to learn more about this topic, I invite you to read the technical dashboard I developed on this subject. It includes the history of Candlesticks, Heikin-Ashi, Renko, Anchored VWAP, and Realized Cap/Price, their different forms of use, and reference links for further exploration (31 links included).

• The dashboard demonstrates, through empirical examples, for the first time that Japanese charting methods, with more than 200 years of history and part of the CMT body of knowledge, a designation recognized by FINRA and the SEC, are applied directly to many professional indicators (on-chain and derivatives) and can be used for trading.

Written by _OnChain

We begin this analysis with price action. With Bitcoin trading at US$ 78,369 and printing a Long Leg Doji on the daily time frame, we observe a candle pattern with long shadows indicating a strong tug-of-war and a balance of forces. This indecision is validated by the anemic volume (7.78K BTC against the SMA-20 of 16.94K). When we move to on-chain data, the Bitcoin: Fear And Greed Index registers 39 (Fear), a sentiment that masks a formidable capital exchange behind the scenes.

INSTITUTIONAL SHIELDING

The Bitcoin: Global Network Accumulation vs. Distribution by All Cohorts (30D) indicator exposes the dynamic: mega-whales (>10K BTC) distributed -25.51K BTC. However, this liquidity was swallowed by smart money. Sharks (100-1K BTC) absorbed +37.92K BTC, which added to the 1K-10K BTC cohort (+9.57K BTC), create a strong institutional price shielding.

SELLING PRESSURE

The Bitcoin: Exchange Whale Ratio - All Exchanges stands at 61.89%, within a moderate alert zone (0.5 to 0.7). Warding off the risk of a massive dump, the [BTC] - Binance Whale to Exchange Flow for the 100 to 10K BTC cohorts struck 0 BTC of inflow in 24h. Consequently, there is no spot selling pressure at the market's leading exchange.

CONCLUSION AND ACCUMULATION

Retention shines in derivatives: the Bitcoin: Open Interest - All Exchanges, All Symbol spiked 10.43% against the SMA-30, reaching US$ 25.98 Billion. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve - All Exchanges reveals a 0.96% retreat in stocks over 30 days (recording 2.66M BTC). Adding this decline to the miners' inertia (MPI at -0.50) and the Bitcoin: Coinbase Premium Gap (23.84) revealing slight buying pressure in the US, it proves that the graphical exhaustion is illusory. Capital is accumulating.

Written by GugaOnChain

Looking at CryptoQuant’s Stablecoin Reserve chart, reserves have climbed from around ~$42B to $48.1B, showing that stablecoin capital is flowing back onto the exchange. For stablecoins, a rising reserve usually signals that potential buyers already have funds positioned on the exchange and are ready to deploy.

Current reserves are now approaching the previous high near $50B. This suggests liquidity on Binance is building again, especially while the market is still moving sideways / consolidating.

If BTC can maintain its current price structure, this pool of stablecoins could become fuel for the next leg higher — or trigger rotation into altcoins.

Binance now has more “dry powder.”

This is a positive liquidity signal that should not be ignored.

Written by Rei Researcher

Binance XRP outflows are once again being dominated by larger holders, with whale outflow dominance rising to 94.4% while retail share has fallen to just 5.5%.

That puts the current structure close to the same levels seen in October 2024 and June 2025.

The setup matters because those earlier readings were followed by strong XRP price advances.

After similar levels were recorded in October 2024, XRP surged by more than 525% a short time later. Following a comparable reading in June 2025, XRP then gained another 71%.

In other words, Binance XRP outflow activity is once again being led overwhelmingly by larger-sized transfers rather than small retail-sized moves.

Historically, returns to these kinds of levels have marked periods when XRP outflows on Binance became heavily concentrated in larger hands.

The latest reading suggests that pattern has now reappeared, with whale-sized transfers again accounting for nearly all outflow value.

Written by Amr Taha

The key difference in this movement is that Funding Rates are currently in negative territory while Open Interest is on rise, unlike in October 2025.

Sentiment is bearish and the market is increasing bets on further declines in BTC prices.

Any apparent demand in the market could put these positions in a difficult and squeezed situation.

Written by G a a h

The provided chart illustrates a significant and steady increase in the SHIBA INU (SHIB) Exchange Reserve on Binance. As indicated by the purple line, the reserve has been on a continuous upward trajectory since mid-March, recently hitting a massive peak of 61.8 Trillion tokens.

In on-chain analysis, a rising exchange reserve is traditionally interpreted as a cautionary, potentially bearish signal. It suggests that investors are migrating their SHIB holdings from cold storage or private wallets onto the exchange. This behavior is heavily correlated with a high probability of impending sell-offs or profit-taking.

While the SHIB price (black line) has shown volatility and occasional upward spikes during this period, the sheer volume of tokens accumulating on Binance could act as a strong overhead resistance against future bullish rallies. Traders should exercise strict risk management, as any significant liquidation from this 61.8T stockpile could trigger heightened market volatility or a short-term price correction.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Looking at the Link Whale Count MOM Change pct chart, a concerning trend is evident in the market structure of this asset. Over the past few months, there has been a continuous decline in whale participation, which is clearly represented by the consecutive negative bars on the chart.

The critical observation here is that this steady exit of large holders is occurring alongside a significant drop in the average price. From an on-chain analysis perspective, deep price corrections typically provide accumulation opportunities for whales to buy the dip. However, the current data shows a glaring lack of interest from large entities to enter the market, even at these discounted price levels.

The simultaneous decrease in both price and whale count suggests weak institutional demand and a lack of conviction regarding a swift short-term recovery. This behavior indicates that whales are either distributing or staying on the sidelines. Until we see a structural shift with positive month-over-month growth in whale counts indicating renewed accumulation, the asset remains vulnerable to further downside or extended consolidation. Retail investors and traders should exercise high caution until large-cap interest returns.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The level of profits and losses held by STHs is currently in a typical bear market configuration.

Today, the estimated STH cost basis stands at around $83,800.

This means STHs are still holding and realizing losses on average, estimated at ~6.5%.

That figure dropped to more than 34% in early February at the peak of the correction.

In terms of duration, STHs have now remained underwater for more than 6 months.

If we compare this with the previous bear market, that dynamic lasted for nearly 13 months and reached a peak of ~42% losses.

That peak was reached after just over 6 months of bear market conditions.

Despite the narratives around the current cycle, the present setup still closely resembles the previous bear market, which was impacted by major events such as FTX and TerraLuna, preventing STHs from returning to profitability.

We are currently approaching a pivot point, where the market can either move back into a more comfortable zone for STHs and investors overall, or extend its correction and continue testing investor conviction.

Written by Darkfost

XRP is showing a clear split between spot demand and futures positioning.

While spot buying has continued to strengthen across exchanges, Binance perpetual traders remain on the bearish side.

This divergence suggests that the recent weakness in futures does not necessarily reflect a lack of real demand. Instead, XRP appears to be going through a futures reset while spot buyers continue to absorb supply.

All CEX Estimated Spot CVD rose from $1.08 billion on April 2 to $1.39 billion by April 24, marking an increase of roughly $310 million in spot-driven demand.

At the same time, Binance Perpetual CVD moved from -$65 million on March 19 to around -$392 million by April 24. This means futures net selling pressure deepened by approximately $327 million.

This contrast is important.

Spot CVD is moving higher, showing stronger real buying activity, while perpetual CVD is falling, showing that futures traders are still aggressively selling or opening bearish positions.

Since April 18, long liquidations have also been dominant in XRP’s liquidation data.

This helped reduce leveraged long exposure and cool crowded bullish positioning.

Together with fresh short positioning, this reset is likely contributing to funding rates moving back toward neutral levels.

In market structure terms, this is not a simple bearish signal. It is more of a spot accumulation versus futures reset setup.

Written by Amr Taha

The adjusted long-term holder MVRV (6M–10Y) indicates that long-term holders remain in profit, despite ongoing compression.

This metric reflects the degree of unrealized profit among long-term holders, serving as a key gauge of whether this cohort has entered stress conditions.

In prior cycles, bottoming phases were accompanied by deeper compression, pushing this metric well below 1.0, typically into the 0.7–0.85 range.

Currently, MVRV is declining but remains above historical stress levels.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto

🚨 SPX is up roughly 13% in the last 15 sessions.

And this move came with almost no meaningful pullback.

You can clearly see it on the chart 👇

But here’s the more important part:

After the March 30 low, the S&P 500 recovered and returned to record highs in just 11 trading sessions.

According to Bespoke data, this hasn’t happened since 1928.

That’s nearly a 100-year extreme move.

Now here’s why I’m paying attention:

This rally is happening while Middle East tensions are still unresolved.

Oil risk is still there,

geopolitical uncertainty is still there…

but the market keeps pushing higher like nothing’s wrong.

So the real question is:

Is this real strength?

Or is this the kind of move that pulls everyone back in

right before a sharper repricing hits?

Because sometimes…

the moment the market feels the safest

is when the risk is actually the highest.

Written by İbrahim COŞAR

Data from the Open Interest Z-Score for XRP on Binance shows total open interest of approximately $449.1 million, with a 30-day moving average of around $420.8 million, a standard deviation (STD30) of $29.47 million, and a Z-Score of approximately 0.96.

These figures indicate that current open interest is above its monthly average, but not at extreme levels. A Z-Score close to 1 suggests a moderate increase in market activity without reaching the overleveraged conditions that often precede sharp corrections. In other words, there is increased participation from traders, but within a relatively healthy range.

Looking at the historical context of the chart, we can observe that open interest has experienced significant increases in the past, particularly when it exceeded $1 billion. These periods were often associated with heightened price volatility. In the current environment, however, the market appears calmer, with open interest having retreated from its previous highs and stabilized within a moderate range, reflecting a decline in excessive speculation.

More importantly, current open interest remains above average, indicating a gradual return of interest in Binance derivatives, but without strong momentum. This type of behavior is often interpreted as a phase of position building rather than indiscriminate, high-risk entry.

The current situation can be considered balanced, with neither signs of a speculative bubble nor significant weakness in activity. If open interest continues to rise in tandem with price improvement, it could signal the beginning of a more stable upward phase.

Written by Arab Chain

As noted in the April 23 Nikkei online article “Bitcoin Wins Alone,” where CryptoQuant and XWIN provided commentary and chart data, the current rise in dominance reflects not BTC strength, but capital concentration.

As the chart shows, Bitcoin price and dominance are rising simultaneously, indicating a persistent “BTC-dominant regime.” In typical bull cycles, capital rotates into altcoins and dominance falls, but that rotation is absent.

The key factor is altcoin weakness. Around 75–80% of top 50 altcoins are down, and large holder activity remains subdued. Ethereum shows relative resilience, but overall risk appetite has not recovered. In short, BTC is not strong—others are simply weaker.

Liquidity contraction reinforces this. Total market cap is down ~20%, CEX volumes ~40%, and stablecoin supply is flat to declining. Capital exists, but not enough to broadly flow into altcoins, leading to concentration in BTC.

ETF flows accelerate this dynamic. Spot BTC ETFs continue to attract capital, creating a BTC-specific entry channel for institutions, unlike altcoins.

Macro conditions also matter. A strong dollar and high rates suppress risk assets, favoring BTC as a relatively safer crypto asset. Post-halving supply constraints and long-term holder inactivity further stabilize BTC supply.

Derivatives positioning remains defensive, with lower open interest and short bias, limiting leverage expansion into altcoins.

In essence, this is not a demand-driven BTC rally, but a lack of capital dispersion. The market is flat to contracting, and altcoins broadly remain weak.

Short term, BTC dominance is likely to stay elevated or rise gradually. A reversal would require easing macro conditions, ETF diversification beyond BTC, stablecoin growth, and a recovery in on-chain activity and volume—all not yet in place.

For now, BTC overweight remains rational, while altcoins require selective positioning. A full alt season has not yet begun.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Although volatility pressures Ethereum to US$ 2,312.53 (-3.45%), on-chain fundamentals reveal a robust support structure. The Ethereum: Exchange Supply Ratio - All Exchanges retreated to 0.1227, operating consistently below its recent moving averages — such as the SMA-7 (0.1244) and the SMA-14 (0.1252). This technical divergence from the averages proves that global liquidity on exchanges continues to dry up at an accelerated pace. In parallel, validators form a true financial foundation: the Ethereum: Total Value Staked reaches 39.34 million ETH — equivalent to a monumental Notional Value of US$ 91 Billion —, raising the Staking Rate to 32.25%. Looking at the medium and long term, this massive supply restriction dampens the corrective shock.

UNREALIZED PROFIT

The technical pillar of this resilience is the ETH: Proxy MVRV (Focus on Valuation and Unrealized Profit). One of the metrics of this indicator, the MVRV Ratio at 1.0293, operates above its short-term averages (SMA-7 at 1.0152 and SMA-14 at 1.0017), attesting that the network retains a healthy unrealized profit, completely distant from panic zones below 1.0.

INSTITUTIONAL WHALES

The crucial data emerges in the Institutional Whales (10k-100k ETH) cohort, which sustains a positive variance of 0.00166386. Unlike the retail flow — where Binance concentrates the flight of weak hands —, these large institutions maintain balances in latent gain and refuse to dump their coins on the market.

CONCLUSION

This stance shields the asset. While Price Action exposes the strain on ETH from short-term sell-side liquidity, the macro capital, mapped by on-chain data, acts as an anchor. The verdict is a redistribution from weak hands to structural accumulators, paving the way for stabilization against Bitcoin.

Written by GugaOnChain

But the moment $BTC bounced, demand ticked back.

Market conditions change. Retail psychology doesn't.

- Retail Demand 30D Change: -11.6% at the 66-67K lows - darkest reading since 2022 bear

- Recovery to -1.4% as price hit 78K - retail activated within weeks of the bounce

- Transfer volume ($0-10K): 344M/day vs 600M+ at 2021 peak - structurally lower base, same behavioral pattern

Every cycle bottom looks the same on this metric. Retail exits or goes quiet. Price bottoms. They re-enter chasing green.

⚠️ Low retail participation at lows is not a contrarian buy confirmation - it's just what happens. The risk is when they pile back in near highs and this reading flips to +10%+.

Written by IT Tech