Cointelegraph

Bitcoin’s price continued to fall as 2025 neared its end, declining 4% in December.

Despite a slump in markets, Strategy capped off the year with massive Bitcoin buys. In December alone, the software company turned Bitcoin investment vehicle picked up over 22,000 Bitcoin (BTC).

In the US, prediction markets are inking deals with major media outlets and scoring approvals from major federal agencies. However, in 11 states, gambling and gaming regulators are taking legal action against platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Watchdogs state that such markets constitute a form of gambling, a claim the companies themselves dispute.

As crypto grows more mainstream, hackers and scammers are increasingly targeting investors and protocols. In December, crypto exploits topped $22.5 million. Chainalysis also released its annual scam report, stating that crypto thefts hit $3.4 billion in 2025.

Here’s December by the numbers:

Strategy accumulates over 22,000 Bitcoin

Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin investment vehicle, Strategy, picked up another stack of Bitcoin in December. The publicly traded company bought 22,628 BTC this month, according to Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase disclosures.

This brings the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 672,497 BTC, or roughly 3.3% of the 19.9 million Bitcoin currently in circulation.

The purchases in December capped off a year of aggressive accumulation by Strategy. The company disclosed Bitcoin purchases in 41 separate weeks of 2025. That’s a marked increase from 18 weeks in 2024 and just eight in 2023.

Strategy’s success in offering debt to fund new Bitcoin purchases has inspired other companies to become “Bitcoin treasury firms” — i.e., companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, 192 public companies hold almost 1.1 million BTC in their treasuries.

Bitcoin price slumps 4%

Bitcoin’s price fell over 4% this month and is trading at $88,000 at publishing time. The asset is slated to end the year down below where it started, around $94,000, and well below its all-time high of $124,000 set in October.

Date as collected and current as of Dec. 30.

Some traders say that Bitcoin is set for further losses, possibly down to $40,000; that is, if the traditionally understood four-year boom-and-bust cycle is still intact.

Not everyone is convinced, though. Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, previously told Cointelegraph that institutional demand through things like exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasuries has softened the blow.

“While the bull market may face near-term consolidation amid macroeconomic pressures, we anticipate it will extend into 2026 with support from ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics,” he said.

Betting markets face legal battles in 11 states

Betting markets are making headway in the US. On Dec. 4, CNBC signed a contract with Kalshi to integrate real-time forecasting data from the betting market on CNBC’s TV, digital and subscription platforms.

But state regulators are not pleased. That same week, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection sent letters to Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood, ordering them to cease operations in the state. There are now 11 states in which prediction markets are facing legal action from regulators.

Kalshi similarly received cease-and-desist letters in Ohio, Illinois, Arizona, Montana and New York. Regulators in those states cited that the market was offering unlicensed gambling, a claim that Kalshi rejects.

In Massachusetts, state prosecutors claim that Kalshi has disguised sports betting as “event contracts.” Kalshi said the state is “trying to block Kalshi’s innovations by relying on outdated laws and ideas.”

A spokesperson for the company previously told Cointelegraph, “It’s very different from what state-regulated sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers. We are confident in our legal arguments and have filed suit in federal court.”

Scammers stole $22.5 million in crypto in December

In December, hackers made away with $22.5 million across 10 incidents, according to data from DefiLlama, a drop in the bucket compared with other months this year.

In February, hackers stole $1.4 billion in assets from the crypto exchange Bybit. Blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis said in its annual crypto hack report that this year’s crypto thefts totaled $3.4 billion. It added that personal wallet attacks have “grown substantially, increasing from just 7.3% of total stolen value in 2022 to 44% in 2024. In 2025, the share would have been 37% if it weren’t for the outsized impact of the Bybit attack.”

Sophisticated attacks from state-sponsored actors have been a particular problem for large, centralized organizations like crypto exchanges. Cybercriminals associated with the government of North Korea reportedly stole $2.02 billion in cryptocurrency this year.

RWAs overtook DEXs with $19 billion in distributed asset value

The total distributed asset value of real-world assets (RWAs) rose 3% in December, surpassing $19 billion. The largest section of these assets is tokenized US Treasurys at $8.7 billion, followed by commodities at $3.5 billion.

This places RWAs as the fifth-largest asset category in decentralized finance by total value locked, according to DefiLlama, overtaking decentralized exchanges (DEXs).

“At the start of this year, they weren’t even in the top 10 categories,” DeFiLlama noted.

A number of tokenized fund products like the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL), Circle’s USYC, Franklin Templeton’s BENJI and Ondo’s OUSG are driving increased valuation with tokenized Treasurys.

Vincent Liu, chief investment officer of Kronos Research, previously told Cointelegraph that for further growth in RWAs, “the constraint is no longer tokenization itself, but liquidity and integration into TradFi.”

Magazine: Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

Artificial intelligence is no longer just a research tool for investors. It’s increasingly being used as a market oracle, used to model scenarios, price ranges and sector-level shifts across global asset classes. 

In 2025, AI adoption accelerated across crypto markets and asset management companies, with funds and analysts using large language models to interpret macro signals, onchain data and regulatory developments. 

To test how these systems interpret the upcoming year, Cointelegraph asked leading AI models what crypto prices could look like in 2026. 

Together, the responses pointed toward a maturing market shaped by institutional capital, infrastructure growth and sharper regulations. 

Methodology

Query time frame

AI model queries were conducted Dec. 15-16, 2025.

Price references: All price ranges are expressed relative to spot crypto market prices observed during the query window of Dec. 15–16, 2025.

Models queried

OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, Microsoft Copilot and xAI’s Grok

Each model was queried independently to avoid cross-contamination of responses.

Prompt structure

Asset-level outlook

Predicted price ranges for major cryptocurrencies in 2026

Key bullish and bearish catalysts

Models were asked to provide base-case price ranges rather than best-case or worst-case scenarios, anchored to market conditions at the time of the queries.

Exact prompt used: 

You are an analytical forecasting model tasked with outlining possible crypto market scenarios for 2026.

For each of the following cryptocurrencies:

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), BNB, XRP, Solana (SOL), Tron (TRX), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA)

Please provide the following for calendar year 2026:

1. Estimated price range

Use a range, not a single price point

Base your estimate on historical cycles, adoption trends, macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments and onchain fundamentals

2. Key bullish catalysts

Institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, ecosystem growth, technological upgrades or macro tailwinds

Limit to 2 concise bullet points

3. Key bearish risks or constraints

Regulatory headwinds, macro tightening, competition, technical risks or demand saturation

Limit to 2 concise bullet points

Editorial handling

To ensure readability and consistency, Cointelegraph used a single standardized prompt across all AI models. AI responses were edited for clarity and length, with overlapping themes summarized and repetitive language removed, while preserving reasoning and intent.

Limitations and bias considerations

While AI models can show useful patterns, they come with clear limitations. To reduce hallucinations, Cointelegraph asked models to provide price ranges rather than point forecasts, required each model to outline both bullish and bearish catalysts and avoided prompts that depended on non-public information. This approach was intended to encourage scenario analysis over certainty.

Most models rely on training data with fixed cutoffs and do not have access to real-time market conditions, private deals and unpublished regulatory developments. As a result, predictions do not consider sudden policy shifts, black swan events or sentiment reversals. 

AI systems also tend to anchor to dominant market narratives. This means that predictions may cluster around consensus views rather than contrarian or extreme outcomes. The outputs also reflect probabilistic reasoning and not foresight. The predictions presented illustrate how large language models interpret trends, not what will definitively happen in 2026.

Price Predictions by AI 

Bitcoin (BTC)

Year-to-date price chart for Bitcoin. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $85,000–$180,000

Gemini: $100,000–$220,000

Grok: $100,000–$250,000

Copilot: $85,000–$135,000

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Copilot broadly agree that sustained institutional inflows, driven by spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate treasuries and broader balance-sheet adoption, are anchoring BTC’s role as a macro asset. 

Gemini and Grok pointed to a more accommodating global macro backdrop in 2026, where easing monetary policy, post-halving supply constraints and potential sovereign accumulation could reinforce the “digital gold” narrative. 

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT, Gemini and Copilot warned that a reversal in global monetary conditions, whether due to sticky inflation or renewed economic shocks, could suppress liquidity and reduce demand for risk and alternative assets, including Bitcoin. 

Gemini and Grok said regulatory pressure remains another shared concern, particularly around custody concentration, ETF structures, taxation and capital controls, which could weigh on institutional confidence if scrutiny intensifies.

Ether (ETH) 

Year-to-date price chart for Ether. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $3,000–$9,000

Gemini: $7,000–$18,000

Grok: $4,000–$12,000

Copilot: $8,200–$10,200

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok all pointed to Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem maturing as a core driver, arguing that rollups and post-Dencun scaling could materially improve throughput and fee efficiency while preserving decentralization.

Copilot and ChatGPT additionally highlight Ethereum’s growing role as a settlement layer for tokenized assets, stablecoins and institutional decentralized finance (DeFi) as a structural source of demand.

Key bearish risks

Gemini and ChatGPT flagged fragmentation across multiple layer-2 networks as a risk, potentially diluting liquidity and weakening ETH’s value-capture narrative. 

Copilot and Grok said regulatory uncertainty around staking, DeFi and ETH’s classification in key jurisdictions could also limit institutional participation if clarity stalls.

BNB (BNB)

Year-to-date price chart for BNB. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $350–$900

Gemini: $550–$1,200

Grok: $700–$1,500

Copilot: $850–$1,200

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok largely connected BNB’s upside to the regulatory stabilization of the crypto exchange Binance and the continued dominance of its exchange-linked ecosystem across trading, payments and DeFi. 

Copilot and ChatGPT said growth in BNB Chain activity, particularly in gaming and retail-focused applications, is viewed as another potential driver of sustained demand and utility for the token.

Key bearish risks

All four models see BNB as highly exposed to Binance-specific regulatory actions, with enforcement or restrictions posing direct downside risk to token demand. 

Gemini and ChatGPT raised concerns that centralization may also constrain broader institutional adoption compared to more decentralized networks.

XRP (XRP)

Year-to-date price chart for XRP. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.80–$3.00

Gemini: $1.00–$3.00

Grok: $1.50–$6.00

Copilot: $1.80–$3.20

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, Copilot and Grok converged on the view that expanded adoption of Ripple-linked payment rails by banks, payment providers or public institutions could materially strengthen XRP’s utility case. 

ChatGPT and Gemini said full regulatory clarity in the United States is a key enabler for renewed institutional confidence and partnerships.

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT, Copilot and Gemini caution that XRP faces structural competition from stablecoins, central bank digital currencies and tokenized fiat solutions that may offer simpler cross-border settlement. 

Grok and ChatGPT noted that slower-than-expected real-world adoption beyond pilot programs could also limit upside despite legal progress.

Solana (SOL)

Year-to-date price chart for Solana. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $120–$350

Gemini: $300–$800

Grok: $200–$600

Copilot: $150–$300

Key bullish catalysts:

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok highlighted Solana’s high throughput and low-cost architecture as a competitive advantage for consumer-facing applications such as payments, gaming and social platforms. 

Copilot and Gemini said continued developer activity, venture funding and institutional experimentation could reinforce ecosystem momentum into 2026.

Key bearish risks

All four models cite recurring concerns around network reliability, and past outages remain a key downside risk, particularly during periods of peak demand. 

Gemini and ChatGPT also warned that improvements in Ethereum’s layer-2 ecosystem could narrow Solana’s performance edge and intensify competition for developers and liquidity.

Tron (TRX)

Year-to-date price chart for Tron. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.12–$0.30

Gemini: $0.20–$0.50

Grok: $0.20–$0.50

Copilot: $0.25–$0.55

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, ChatGPT and Grok agree that Tron’s dominant role as a settlement layer for stablecoin transfers, especially USDt (USDT) in Asia and emerging markets, provides a durable source of onchain demand. 

Gemini and Copilot also point to potential upside from expanded real-world asset or regulated stablecoin integrations.

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT and Gemini said regulatory pressure on stablecoins or heightened scrutiny of Tron’s governance structure could pose systemic risks to its core use case. 

Grok and Copilot flagged limited developer activity and innovation outside payments may also cap upside relative to more diversified ecosystems.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Year-to-date price chart for Dogecoin. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.07–$0.40

Gemini: $0.30–$0.80

Grok: $0.20–$0.80

Copilot: $0.12–$0.25

Key bullish catalysts

ChatGPT, Copilot and Grok framed DOGE’s upside around renewed retail-driven momentum, amplified by social media cycles, cultural relevance and potential integration into consumer payment or tipping platforms. 

Gemini said high visibility and brand recognition continue to differentiate DOGE from newer memecoins.

Key bearish risks

All four models flagged DOGE’s inflationary supply and lack of sustained utility as structural constraints on long-term appreciation. 

ChatGPT and Grok said competition from newer, more speculative memecoins could further dilute attention and capital during future market cycles.

Cardano (ADA) 

Year-to-date price chart for Cardano. Source: CoinGecko

ChatGPT: $0.40–$1.80

Gemini: $1.50–$4.00

Grok: $0.60–$2.50

Copilot: $0.50–$1.20

Key bullish catalysts

Gemini, Grok and Copilot pointed to the rollout of decentralized governance under the Voltaire era and continued progress on scaling solutions as potential credibility boosts for the network. 

ChatGPT and Gemini pointed to adoption in public-sector, education or identity-focused use cases as a possible long-term differentiator.

Key bearish risks

ChatGPT, Grok and Copilot warned that slow development timelines and a methodical, research-heavy approach could be risks in a fast-moving competitive landscape. 

Gemini and ChatGPT also said a persistent gap between Cardano’s market capitalization and relatively low onchain activity or TVL could continue to raise questions about real economic usage.

Magazine: Apple developing pocket AI, deep fake music deal, hypnotizing GPT-4

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Key takeaways:

ETH remains capped below $3,000 as repeated breakout failures weaken trader confidence and suppress short-term momentum.

A sustainable ETH rally will require stronger network activity and DApp demand to offset weak leverage and ETF flows.

Ether (ETH) has traded within a narrow 4% range for the past week, leading traders to question whether the $2,900 support level will hold. Repeated failures to break above $3,000 have coincided with a decline in Ethereum network fees and muted demand for Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

This lack of conviction is also evident in ETH derivatives markets, prompting traders to reassess whether a sustainable recovery is still possible in the near term.

ETH 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

ETH monthly futures traded at a 3% annualized premium relative to spot markets on Tuesday, signalling extremely low demand for bullish leveraged positions.

Under neutral conditions, this premium typically exceeds 5% to compensate for the longer settlement period, but it has remained below that threshold for the past couple of weeks.

Ethereum fees drop despite rising network activity

Part of the weak investor sentiment can be explained by falling Ethereum network fees, as traders anticipate lower demand for ETH.

More importantly, demand for competing blockchains focused on decentralized applications (DApps) has remained steady, leading investors to question why the Ethereum network has lagged.

Blockchains ranked by 7-day fees, USD. Source: Nansen

Ethereum network fees declined by 26% from their baseline, even as the number of transactions increased by 10% over the period. At first glance, Ethereum activity has not faded. But a significant part of ETH’s price outlook depends on actual demand for blockchain processing.

By comparison, transactions on BNB Chain and Solana were largely flat over the same seven-day window. To determine whether demand for Ether remains solid, it is necessary to assess the effective usage of DApps on the network.

7-day Ethereum decentralized application fees, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Fees generated by Ethereum DApps have remained relatively flat over the past four weeks, although well below the $140 million peak recorded in October. The data shows that activity on the Ethereum network is stagnant, but far from collapsing.

The lack of optimism around ETH’s short-term momentum is also evident in selling pressure on Ether ETFs. This metric is commonly linked to institutional demand, particularly as these instruments saw nearly $17 billion in inflows.

BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA US) leads the group, with $10.2 billion in assets under management.

Ether ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: Farside Investors

The $307 million in daily net outflows from Ether ETFs since Dec. 17 may not be materially significant, as it represents less than 3% of total assets, but the lack of demand still weighs on investor sentiment. Even professional traders can turn skeptical after two weeks of repeated failures by ETH to hold above the $3,000 level.

Additionally, it is difficult to separate Ether’s weak performance from broader risk concerns tied to a global economic slowdown.

As governments face tighter fiscal conditions, central banks have less room to cut interest rates, increasing recession risks. As a result, investors are likely to remain cautious toward the cryptocurrency market until there is greater clarity on the economic outlook.

While weak demand for bullish ETH leveraged positions and Ether ETFs is not a death sentence, a sustainable rally likely depends on stronger Ethereum network activity and rising demand for DApps.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Cryptocurrency exchange Bybit suffered a $1.4 billion hack in February 2025 that exposed structural weaknesses in custody systems long considered industry standards, such as cold storage and multisignature wallets.

At the time, the exploit was the largest known hack in crypto history, though that distinction was later eclipsed by findings that Chinese mining pool LuBian lost $3.5 billion in 2020.

“The [Bybit] hack showed that cold storage and multisig labels are meaningless if the approval flow, transaction visibility, or signer environment can be manipulated,” said Ishai Shoham, head of product at crypto infrastructure company Utila. “After Bybit, custody architecture became a first-order risk topic, not a back-office detail.” 

The incident also prompted the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to urge global regulators to address illicit finance risks in cryptocurrencies, while exchanges tightened transaction approval processes and raised the standard for how breaches are detected and handled.

Private key hacks are responsible for big losses for centralized services. Source: Chainalysis

What is FATF and why does it matter?

The FATF is an intergovernmental body that sets standards on money laundering and terrorist financing. Its recommendations are not legally binding, but its members are expected to abide by its standards. For non-members that fall short, inclusion on the FATF gray list could limit access to aid and damage banking relationships.

In a June 2025 report, the FATF cited the Bybit hack as the largest crypto theft ever. It warned that crosschain activity, stablecoins and uneven global enforcement were amplifying illicit finance risks faster than existing controls could contain them.

FATF called on jurisdictions to tighten licensing and assess risks associated with overseas exchanges. Source: FATF

“The case highlights persistent gaps in the Travel Rule and in enforcement. Once funds move into DeFi, it becomes difficult to prevent layering and money laundering, particularly as automation tools make these processes faster and easier,” Joshua Chu, asset recovery lawyer and co-chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association, told Cointelegraph.

Related: From Sony to Bybit: How Lazarus Group became crypto’s supervillain

FATF urged jurisdictions to accelerate licensing, supervision and international coordination, framing the incident as evidence that weaknesses in custody and transaction oversight now pose systemic risks to the global financial system. Like the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and countless security experts, FATF linked the exploit to hackers tied to North Korea.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT was the first to officially link Lazarus Group to the Bybit hack. Source: Arkham

“If you ask who the most influential person in crypto was in 2025, I would say Kim Jong Un. Despite the political attention on crypto legislation and standards alignment, what dominated the FATF report was the Bybit hack.”

Around the same time, Singapore tightened its licensing regime, ordering unlicensed crypto firms to either obtain permits or leave the market. While Singapore drew most of the headlines, regulators in countries such as Thailand and the Philippines were pursuing similar enforcement campaigns.

Custody security and laundering assumptions break down

The industry’s understanding of both custody security and illicit fund movement shifted following the Bybit hack.

Shoham said the breach made clear that the primary weaknesses were no longer cryptographic.

Related: Are you a freelancer? North Korean spies may be using you

“Once funds leave a compromised wallet, attackers can atomize and recompose value across chains faster than human response cycles,” he said.

This shift changed the industry's perspective from treating mixers as the primary threat to recognizing that decentralized routing infrastructure itself enables large-scale, automated theft.”

The Bybit hack also reignited a long-running debate over crosschain infrastructure and the responsibilities of decentralized protocols. As stolen funds moved across chains, attention once again turned to routing networks such as THORChain and eXch, which have been used by attackers to swap assets without relying on centralized intermediaries.

THORChain volume spiked as Bybit hackers moved funds. Source: THORChain Explorer

Supporters of decentralized models argued that such protocols are neutral infrastructure, designed to operate without discretion or gatekeeping. Critics countered that their architecture makes them uniquely attractive for laundering large volumes of stolen assets, particularly when combined with automation and fragmented liquidity across chains.

Some swappers like eXch ended up shutting down not long after the hack. 

Bybit sets new standards for crisis response

The Bybit hack crystallized a broader shift in how the industry approaches both custody and compliance. As crosschain movement accelerates and static controls fall short, exchanges and infrastructure providers are increasingly expected to apply governance at the level of transaction behavior rather than rely solely on address-based restrictions.

For Bybit, the $1.4 billion breach could have marked the beginning of a prolonged collapse. Given the exchange’s size, early fears centered on the possibility of an FTX-like contagion that could have triggered another industry-wide downturn just as markets were recovering.

Instead, the exchange’s response set a different precedent. CEO Ben Zhou appeared publicly throughout the incident, hosting livestreams to update users on recovery efforts. Rather than halting withdrawals, a common reflex during crises, Bybit kept them open and sourced Ether from partner exchanges to meet immediate customer demand.

That approach has since influenced how other platforms prepare for and respond to major breaches. 

Withdrawal freezes are no longer the default response, and real-time communication has become a baseline expectation. Despite the scale of the hack, Bybit remains one of the largest exchanges globally and frequently ranks as the second-largest platform by daily trading volume.

Magazine: Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin is consolidating as gold leads, a pattern seen before past BTC rallies.

$84,000–$85,000 and the 100-week EMA are key levels to watch.

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to rise above the $90,000 mark in December, with sharp rejections toward the $85,000-87,000 area on each attempt.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The sideways price action followed a sharp pullback of more than 30% from Bitcoin’s October all-time high above the $126,000 mark.

Bitcoin’s consolidation resembled pauses seen in previous four-year cycle downtrends, when its price often moved sideways for extended periods before establishing a clearer trend, according to multiple analysts.

With 2026 approaching, is this boring BTC range about to give way to a major breakout or a deeper correction?

Gold, silver charts: Lagging BTC price correlation

Bitcoin’s 30% pullback and sideways trading are consistent with past liquidity cycles, according to data highlighted by analyst Bull Theory.

In a Monday note, the analyst said gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) tend to move first after major market stress, while Bitcoin lags.

For instance, the precious metals rallied during the May-August 2020 period, but Bitcoin traded inside the $9,000-12,000 range in the same period.

BTC/USD, TOTAL crypto market cap, XAU/USD and XAG/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Bull Theory

“Gold and silver peaked in August 2020, and money started rotating into risk assets,” Bull Theory wrote, adding:

“This is when Bitcoin started moving. From August 2020 to May 2021: Bitcoin went from $12,000 to $64,800 (nearly 5.5x). Total crypto market cap went up almost 8x by mid-2021.”

A similar pattern was visible as of December 2025.

Gold and silver reached their respective all-time highs, while Bitcoin consolidated, hinting that the top cryptocurrency may benefit from delayed risk rotation just like it did after August 2020.

“That is why the current sideways action in BTC is not the start of the bear market, but rather a calm before the storm,” Bull Market added.

Bitcoin cost basis

The next chart to watch in 2026 is Bitcoin’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap, which shows where large portions of BTC supply were accumulated across different price levels.

In simple terms, it helps identify where most holders bought their coins and where buying or selling pressure is likely to emerge.

As of December, the heatmap highlighted a dense supply cluster of more than 940,000 BTC around the $84,000–$85,000 range, the largest concentration recorded since 2020.

BTC cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

In the past, such supply zones appeared ahead of strong Bitcoin uptrends.

For example, in early 2023, heavy buying activity around $16,000 created a strong base. Over the following year, Bitcoin climbed steadily from that zone to above $38,000.

BTC cost basis distribution heatmap. Source: Glassnode

In 2025, Bitcoin dropped to the $75,000-76,000 range despite strong accumulation inside the $96,000-98,000 zone earlier.

BTC later recovered back into that high-accumulation zone, showing that buyers were willing to step in again rather than abandon their positions.

Bitcoin hash rate chart

Bitcoin mining has come under pressure as rising energy costs squeeze margins, forcing some miners to rely on debt or equity-linked financing to stay liquid.

Against this backdrop, the Bitcoin network’s hash rate has slipped after peaking in late October, raising concerns about miner stress.

Estimated Bitcoin hash rate, petahashes/second. Source: Coinmetrics.io

Analysts at VanEck view the trend differently.

In a recent note, crypto research head Matt Sigel said miner capitulation has historically acted as a “bullish contrarian signal,” with Bitcoin posting positive 90-day returns roughly 65% of the time following sustained hash rate declines.

Bitcoin’s price rose 77% of the time over the following 180 days, with an average gain of about 72% after sustained hash rate declines. This fractal makes BTC’s hash rate a key chart to watch in 2026.

Bitcoin’s weekly trendline support

Bitcoin’s weekly chart highlights why the boring range matters heading into 2026.

As of December, BTC consolidated sideways while holding above its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA; the purple wave) support.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

As long as price holds near this zone, the broader uptrend structure remains intact, even if momentum stays muted. In that case, BTC could rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) at around the $97,000-98,000 zone.

However, a sustained break below the 100-week EMA would raise risks of deeper pullbacks toward the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around the $67,500-66,000 area.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Looking to 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) forecasts clash with historical chart patterns and evolving market realities, as traditional finance plays a bigger role in the cryptocurrency space.

Key takeaways:

Standard Chartered and Bernstein forecast Bitcoin to hit $150,000 in 2026, revising down earlier higher targets due to slower ETF inflows. 

Grayscale predicts a new BTC all-time high in H1/2026, driven by institutional adoption ending the traditional four-year cycle.

Technical point to a potentially deep drawdown to $40,000-$70,000 if historical patterns repeat.

Expert outlooks for Bitcoin price going into 2026

The post-2024 halving cycle brought significant gains earlier in the year; however, late-2025 consolidation and volatility have led to a pullback amid macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuations in ETF flows.

The 47% drawdown from $126,000 all-time highs in October saw Bitcoin price drop to $80,500 in November. 

Bitcoin price drawdown from all-time high. Source: Glassnode

Analysts are largely bullish for 2026, though their predictions are tempered compared to earlier euphoria. 

Standard Chartered has cut its 2026 Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000 ​​after spending 2024 and early 2025 calling for moonshots, citing slower institutional buying through ETFs.

Related: Coinbase ‘cautiously optimistic’ on 2026 as crypto nears institutional inflection point

Bernstein analysts also expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, with an anticipated price of $200,000 by the end of 2027.

Although the recent downturn prompted them to retract their earlier forecast of a $200,000 peak this year, they maintain the view that Bitcoin has moved beyond its historical four-year cyclical pattern, suggesting a more durable growth trajectory. 

Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor predicts $150,000 for Bitcoin going into 2026, arguing that the cryptocurrency has been “getting a lot less” volatile despite the recent price correction, contradicting the outlook of many crypto analysts.

More optimistic views, such as from Fundstrat, see potential for $200,000–$250,000, while conservative estimates hover near $110,000–$135,000. 

Polymarket predicts a 41% chance of BTC rising above $130,000 and a 25% chance of it reaching $150,000 before the end of 2026.

There’s a 79% chance of Bitcoin’s price reclaiming $100,000 and an 80% possibility of it falling to $75,000 in 2026, based on the current odds. 

Bitcoin price targets before Dec. 31, 2026. Source: Polymarket

Overall, consensus leans toward the upside, sustained by structural changes rather than traditional boom-bust cycles.

BTC price technicals clash with bullish forecasts

Past halving patterns suggest that BTC price peaks 12–18 months thereafter, as reduced issuance takes effect — and this is starting to be reflected in the charts.

Analyst and trader Rekt Capital suggested that the current cycle was over 93% complete, with the possibility of the market topping out in Q4/2025.

Bitcoin halving cycle progress. Source: Rekt Capital

Other technical indicators also reflect bear market conditions, suggesting that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact and that BTC could extend its downtrend into 2026.

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows that the SuperTrend indicator flashed a bearish signal, with its “sell” signal confirmed by BTC’s drop below the 50-week moving averages (MAs) (see chart below), a scenario that has historically marked the end of bull markets. 

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

These were further reinforced by a bearish cross from the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) a few days later. 

Previous confirmations from these three indicators were followed by 84% and 77% drawdowns during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, as shown in the chart above.

Intocryptoverse founder and CEO Benjamin Cowen said that the BTC/USD pair will likely bounce back to the 200-day SMA currently at $108,000, before resuming the downtrend, possibly bottoming around the 200-week MAs between $60,000 and $70,00 in 2026.

“All prior cycle bear markets were confirmed by a macro lower high at the 200D SMA.” 

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Benjamin Cowen

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s  200-day moving average turned bearish in November when a “death cross” occurred as it dipped below the shorter-term 50-day moving average, predicting 2026 to be a year of declines.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.

Perpetuals decentralized exchanges are closing 2025 with cumulative trading volume reaching roughly $12.09 trillion, up from about $4.1 trillion at the start of the year. 

DefiLlama data shows that about $7.9 trillion of this lifetime total volume was generated in 2025 alone. This means that 65% of all perp DEX trading volume occurred in a single calendar year. This concentration highlights how rapidly onchain derivatives scaled in 2025. 

In December alone, perpetuals trading volume reached $1 trillion, carrying momentum that started in October, when monthly volumes first reached $1 trillion. 

The increase reflects a sharp acceleration in onchain derivatives usage in the last 12 months, as perpetuals DEXs absorbed a growing share of leveraged crypto trading activity. 

Perpetuals DEX volume in 2025. Source: DefiLlama

Perp DEX activity accelerated in the second half of 2025

The nearly $8 trillion in volume generated throughout 2025 was largely concentrated in the second half of the year. 

DefiLlama data reveals that the first half of 2025 accounted for about $2.1 trillion, while the second half delivered about $5.74 trillion in volume, representing 73% of the year's overall record. 

Trading activity remained relatively stable through the first half of 2025, suggesting a consistent baseline of onchain derivatives usage, rather than a breakout phase. 

This pattern shifted mid-year, with volumes accelerating in the third quarter before reaching an inflection point in Q4, when monthly volumes started to consistently exceed $1 trillion. The trading volume for the fourth quarter alone exceeds the total trading volume for the first half of 2025. 

As liquidity deepened and execution improved, perpetuals DEXs increasingly functioned as primary venues for leveraged trading rather than supplementary alternatives to centralized exchanges. 

Related: Aster says tokenomics unchanged amid community confusion after CMC update

Hyperliquid dominance challenged as rival perp DEXs gain traction

Hyperliquid dominated the perps DEX space for the majority of the year, particularly in the first six months, when its monthly volumes consistently ranged from $175 billion to $248 billion. 

During that period, competing platforms like Aster and Lighter remained comparatively small, with Aster posting single-digit billions and Lighter only starting to scale after the first quarter. 

Hyperliquid’s perpetuals trading volume for 2025. Source: DefiLlama

The competitive landscape began to shift mid-year as rival platforms accelerated faster than Hyperliquid. Both Aster and Lighter posted sharp step-ups in activity from June onward. 

Lighter transitioned from below $50 billion in monthly volumes to consistently exceeding $100 billion by the third quarter, signaling growing trader adoptiona nd liquidity depth. 

The most pronounced challenge to Hyperliquid's dominance emerged in the fourth quarter. Aster recorded explosive growth in October and November, as monthly volumes surged to $259 billion in both months. 

By the end of the year, the data suggested a transition from a single leader market to a more competitive, multi-venue ecosystem. 

Magazine: Koreans ‘pump’ alts after Upbit hack, China BTC mining surge: Asia Express

Lighter, a decentralized exchange (DEX) that offers perpetual futures trading, carried out one of the largest token giveaways in crypto history this week, even as critics continued to question how the project split its token supply.

Lighter airdropped a total of $675 million worth of Lighter Infrastructure Tokens (LIT) to early participants on Tuesday, according to blockchain data visualization platform Bubblemaps. “$675M airdropped to early participants. $30M withdrawn from Lighter (only),” wrote Bubblemaps in a Tuesday X post.

The $675 million total makes the Lighter airdrop the 10th largest airdrop by US dollar value in cryptocurrency history, according to crypto data aggregator CoinGecko.

Source: Bubblemaps

Related: These three altcoins came back from the dead in 2025

The Lighter airdrop surpassed 1inch Network’s $671 million airdrop for the 10th place, but remained behind LooksRare’s $712 million airdrop from 2022.

However, the $675 million pales in comparison to the $6.43 billion of value distributed through the Uniswap airdrop in 2020, the largest in the industry to date. 

Top 10 airdrops in crypto history. Source: Coingecko.com

Related: $11B Bitcoin whale sells $330M ETH, opens massive $748M longs in top cryptos

Holders stay put after token generation event

Some of Lighter’s earliest adopters, such as pseudonymous crypto investor Didi, reported receiving an over six-figure airdrop from the DEX.

However, as of Wednesday, about 75% of the airdrop recipients were still holding the tokens, while 7% of recipients had bought more LIT tokens on the open market, signaling confidence in the long-awaited DEX token, according to data shared by blockchain sleuth Arndxt in an X post.

Source: Arndxt

Still, investors have voiced concerns over Lighter’s tokenomics, as 50% of LIT’s supply is reserved for the ecosystem, while the remaining 50% was allocated to the team and investors, with a one-year cliff and a multi-year vesting schedule.

Some community members pointed out that the 50% team allocation was excessively high for a DeFi project, while others criticized the tokenomics for resembling the model presented by one of its main rivals, Hyperliquid.

Lighter market capitalization, all-time chart. Source: Nansen.ai

The LIT token stood at a $678 million market capitalization as of 11:20 a.m. in UTC, trading above $2.71, according to crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

However, traders buying at the current price levels may only benefit from a “short-term trade,” as a long-term market opportunity would require significantly more trading volume and “user retention,” wrote crypto investor Casa, in a Tuesday X post.

Magazine: Inside a 30,000 phone bot farm stealing crypto airdrops from real users

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have ended a seven-day run of net outflows, pulling in $355 million in capital as traders pointed to early signs of improving global liquidity.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) led the rebound with $143.75 million in inflows on Tuesday, followed by the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) at $109.56 million and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $78.59 million, according to data from SoSoValue. Bitwise’s Bitcoin ETF (BITB) added $13.87 million, while smaller inflows were recorded by Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) with $4.28 million, and VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF (HODL) with $4.98 million.

The turnaround comes as spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs recorded roughly $1.12 billion in cumulative net outflows during the prior seven trading days. The heaviest selling occurred on Dec. 26, when funds shed about $275.9 million, marking the largest daily outflow of the period.

Notably, December was dominated by outflows, with spot Bitcoin ETFs shedding roughly $744 million overall as investors pulled back amid falling prices and thin year-end liquidity.

Analysts say global liquidity is improving

The shift in flows comes amid improving liquidity conditions. In a Wednesday post on X, Arthur Hayes said global dollar liquidity likely bottomed in November and has been edging higher since. “$ liq likely bottomed in Nov and is inching higher,” Hayes wrote, adding that the setup favors a renewed push in crypto markets.

Other analysts echoed the view. Crypto commentator Mister Crypto said global liquidity indicators are “going vertical,” pointing to rising money supply measures across major economies.

The analyst also pointed to upcoming US Treasury bill purchases by the Federal Reserve, noting that the Fed is set to inject $8.165 billion into markets on Jan. 6. “We are now on the bullish side of the liquidity cycle,” he said.

Analysts reveal Fed’s upcoming purchases. Source: Mister Crypto

Spot Ether ETFs end four-day inflow streak

Spot Ether (ETH) ETFs also ended a four-day outflow streak on Tuesday, recording $67.8 million in net inflows, according to data from SoSoValue. The inflow marked a shift after spot Ether ETFs posted net outflows of more than $196 million over the prior four sessions, with the heaviest single-day selling seen on Dec. 23, when funds lost about $95.5 million.

Meanwhile, spot XRP (XRP) ETFs have extended their inflow streak to 30 consecutive days, with another $15 million in inflows on Tuesday.

Magazine: Bitcoin may dip to $65K in 2026, Clarity Act speculation grows: Hodler’s Digest

The non-fungible token (NFT) market expanded in total supply, but saw significantly lower sales in 2025 compared to the previous years. 

CryptoSlam data shows that the total number of NFTs in circulation climbed to more than 1.34 billion this year, marking a 25% increase from the one billion supply in 2024. The increasing supply happened in parallel with falling NFT sales. 

According to CryptoSlam data, NFT sales reached about $5.63 billion in 2025, down by about 37% from the $8.9 billion recorded last year. Average sale prices also declined year-on-year, slipping to $96 from $124. 

The divergence highlights a market where supply growth outpaced demand. While creators continued minting new NFT pieces and platforms lowered entry barriers, buyer participation and spending failed to keep up, stretching liquidity across a much larger number of assets.

NFT sales, buyers, and sellers chart. Source: CryptoSlam

NFT supply expanded from 38 million to 1.3 billion in four years

The total number of NFTs minted and entered circulation grew steadily each year as minting tools became cheaper and easier to use across major blockchains. 

CryptoSlam data shows that supply rose from 38 million NFTs in 2021 to over 106 million in 2022, before accelerating sharply in the following years as creators scaled up production. By 2023, total NFT supply had already surpassed 550 million tokens before almost doubling in 2024 to one billion. 

At the time of writing, NFT supply stood at 1.34 billion tokens, representing a 35-fold increase, or about 3,400% growth, over the past four years.

While supply expanded quickly, the market’s ability to absorb new NFTs weakened. Total NFT sales peaked in 2022 and trended lower since. 

NFT sales volume from 2021 to 2025. Source: CryptoSlam

Pricing data reinforced the shift. Average NFT sale value dropped below $100 in 2025, down from $124 in 2024. It's also far below the over $400 averages seen during the 2021 and 2022 boom. 

The combination of rising supply, lower total sales, and shrinking ticket sizes suggests that NFTs are increasingly becoming a high-volume, low-price market, where competition for buyer attention will be more intense. 

Related: NFTs shifted to utility and culture as price faded in 2025

NFT market capitalization continued to compress after its 2022 peak

The NFT sector’s total capitalization has steadily declined since reaching a peak of about $17 billion in April 2022, reflecting the unwinding of speculative excess from the previous cycle.

Total NFT market cap chart. Source: CoinGecko

After a partial recovery to roughly $10.8 billion in December 2024 and holding to about $9.2 billion in January 2025, market capitalization slid further throughout this year, closing 2025 at around $2.4 billion. 

The downward trend highlights how lower prices and thinner liquidity persisted as overall NFT supply continues to expand. 

Magazine: Pranksy: Inside the anonymous life of an NFT legend — NFT Collector

Crypto fund manager Bitwise has filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch 11 new single‑token “strategy” crypto exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), extending the company’s crypto ETF footprint deeper into the altcoin market.

The proposed funds would offer targeted exposure to assets including Aave (AAVE), Uniswap (UNI), Zcash (ZEC), Bittensor (TAO), Sui (SUI), and Near (NEAR), among others, giving investors a regulated route into tokens that so far have mostly traded on crypto exchanges.

According to the filing, each product is designed as a “Strategy ETF” rather than a plain spot vehicle, following a rules‑based playbook for how it gets exposure to the underlying asset.

In broad terms, the funds would combine direct spot holdings in the relevant cryptocurrency with positions in exchange-traded products (ETPs) that also reference that asset, and could use derivatives to fine‑tune exposure.

As per the filing, the fund will derive its exposure “by investing up to 60% of its assets directly” in the token and “at least 40% of its assets” in securities issued by one or more exchange-traded products that invest directly in or provide exposure to the token.

Bitwise Crypto ETF Filings | Source: SEC

That makes these ETFs structurally different from Bitwise’s existing offerings, which are mostly diversified baskets of crypto equities (such as Coinbase), multi‑asset indexes, or futures‑based strategies.

Bitwise’s crypto offerings

Bitwise already runs a reasonably full US lineup. Its spot products include the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, the Bitwise Ethereum ETF, the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF, and the Bitwise XRP ETF, which hold their respective assets directly.

On the equity and index side, Bitwise offers the Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF, which holds listed crypto‑related companies, and the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF, which tracks a screened basket of the largest digital assets. The firm also operates futures‑based strategies built around CME futures.

The new single‑token strategy funds would sit alongside the existing shelf, but target a different type of risk. Instead of diversified baskets, each ETF concentrates on one coin and applies the same rules‑based framework across a family of altcoins spanning decentralized finance, artificial intelligence, and layer‑1 ecosystems.

If approved, they would give institutions and advisers an ETF‑native way to express views on names like TAO or SUI without directly holding the tokens.

A broader wave of crypto ETF/ETP filings

The move comes amid a broader wave of ETF and ETP activity, including Grayscale’s Dec. 30 application to convert its Bittensor trust into a spot ETF on NYSE Arca.

Over the past several months, issuers such as Bitwise, VanEck, and 21Shares have also been rolling out or seeking approval for spot and thematic products tied to altcoins like Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Avalanche (AVAX).

While other issuers are edging into single‑altcoin territory, launching or filing for one‑off spot products tied to individual tokens or AI or DeFi‑themed vehicles, Bitwise’s bid is more ambitious in scope: an 11‑fund suite built around a common strategy template to give US investors access to a long tail of altcoins through ETFs.​

A senior executive at Coinbase has warned that changes to the US stablecoin framework could weaken Washington’s position in the global race for digital payments, just as China moves to make its central bank digital currency (CBDC) more competitive.

In a post on X, Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s chief policy officer, said the debate over whether US-issued stablecoins can offer “rewards” under the GENIUS Act could hurt US dollar stablecoins’ global competitiveness. He pointed to a recent announcement from China’s central bank as evidence that rival financial systems are moving quickly to enhance the appeal of state-backed digital money.

The People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, this week outlined a new framework that will allow commercial banks to pay interest on balances held in digital yuan wallets starting Jan. 1, 2026. Lu Lei, a deputy governor at the PBOC, said the change would move the e-CNY beyond its original role as a digital cash substitute and integrate it into banks’ asset and liability management.

“The digital RMB will move from the digital cash era to the digital deposit currency (Digital Deposit Money) era,” said Lei in the report. “It has the functions of monetary value scale, value storage, and cross-border payment.”

Stablecoin reward debate raises competition fears

The GENIUS Act, which passed in June, established reserve and compliance rules for stablecoins while prohibiting issuers from paying direct interest. The law, however, allows platforms and third parties to offer rewards linked to stablecoin use.

“If this issue is mishandled in Senate negotiations on the market structure bill it could hand our global rivals a big assist in giving non-US stablecoins and CBDCs a critical competitive advantage at the worst possible time,” Shirzad warned.

Faryar Shirzad warns against changing the GENIUS Act. Source: Faryar Shirzad

The warning comes as industry figures voice concerns about bank lobbyists trying to reopen the GENIUS Act. “Now the banking lobby wants to reopen it,” crypto policy commentator Max Avery said in a post last week.

Avery pointed out that while banks currently earn around 4% on reserves parked at the Federal Reserve, consumers often receive close to zero on traditional savings accounts. Stablecoin platforms, he said, threaten that model by offering to share some of that yield with users.

Related: The crypto events that reshaped the industry in 2025

Coinbase CEO calls GENIUS Act a “red line”

Last week, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said any attempt to reopen the GENIUS Act would cross a “red line,” accusing banks of lobbying Congress to limit stablecoin rewards in order to protect their deposit base. He said Coinbase would continue to oppose efforts to revise the law, adding that he was surprised such lobbying was happening so openly.

Armstrong also argued that banks are misjudging the issue, predicting they will eventually push to offer interest and yield on stablecoins themselves once the opportunity becomes clear. He described the current lobbying effort as “unethical,” saying it would ultimately fail.

Magazine: If the crypto bull run is ending… it’s time to buy a Ferrari — Crypto Kid

The Ethereum mainnet clocked 2.2 million transactions in a single day in a new record this week, while fees have fallen to just 17 cents on average.

The layer-1 blockchain recorded its new transaction milestone on Tuseday, according to block explorer Etherscan.  Transaction fees have also dropped considerably over time. 

The highest transaction fees on Ethereum were recorded in May 2022, when users had to spend over $200 per transaction.

However, continued upgrades has dropped fees considerably, despite continued growth of the network’s usage.  

Fees have also been on the decline since Oct.10, when they were around $8.48, during the significant liquidation event that saw the entire market bleed.

Ethereum transaction fees have dropped considerably over time. Source: Etherscan

Higher Ethereum fees have historically pushed users to cheaper alternatives such as layer 2s, but the growing transactions on the mainnet indicate a return to the layer 1 blockchain and rising usage among crypto users.

Meanwhile, developers are increasingly choosing Ethereum as a settlement layer, with data from Token Terminal showing the number of new smart contracts created and published on the Ethereum blockchain reached a high of 8.7 million in the fourth quarter.

Two major upgrades for Ethereum in 2025

The Ethereum blockchain underwent significant changes in 2025, with two upgrades that likely contributed to the spike in transactions and drop in fees.

Related: BitMine bags $98M in ETH as year-end selling caps gains: Tom Lee

Pectra in May focused on validator improvements, staking flexibility, and preparing Ethereum for future scalability features.

Fusaka increased the gas limit from 45 million to 60 million and was also designed to significantly boost scalability, data handling, and network efficiency. In February, over 50% of Ethereum validators signalled support for raising the network’s gas limit, increasing the maximum amount of gas that can be used for transactions in a single Ethereum block. 

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s staking queue flipped the exit line for the first time in six months on Monday, with almost twice as much ETH now lined up to be staked as ETH trying to leave the network.

Unstaking is often seen as a sign that validators are looking to free up Ether for sale, while staking is seen as a sign of confidence to lock it up for long-term holding.

Magazine: Pectra hard fork explained — Will it get Ethereum back on track?

Ugandan politician and opposition leader Bobi Wine is encouraging his constituents to download Jack Dorsey’s decentralized peer-to-peer messaging service, Bitchat, in the lead-up to the country’s election, alleging the ruling party will try to cut off communication services.  

During the 2016 election, long-time Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni blocked internet and social media access for the entire population, citing security and safety concerns, and again in 2021, according to a report from the Pan-African Human Rights Defenders Network.

Wine alleged in a X post on Tuesday that a similar action is on the agenda in the lead-up to the Uganda 2026 presidential election, which is scheduled for January 15.

“They switch off the internet in order to block communication and ensure that citizens do not organise, verify their election results and demand for accountability over the massive election theft,” he said.

Source: Bobi Wine

The Pan-African Human Rights Defenders Network claims the social media blackouts mostly harm the political opposition, which relies on the platforms to organize campaigns and protests.

The Ugandan government said the measures were needed for national security and to ensure public order during the election.  

Starlink imports also restricted

Last week, Reuters reported there was a government memo to restrict the importation of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet equipment, which can provide high-speed internet in areas that previously had no reliable options.

The Ugandan government is restricting the importation of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet equipment. Source: Bobi Wine

Dorsey launched a Bitchat beta in July. It uses Bluetooth mesh networks for internet-free, encrypted communication, and according to the white paper, the network is fully decentralized with no central servers, accounts, email addresses, phone numbers to register, or infrastructure dependencies.

Wine said Bitchat will allow communication with “thousands of people in record time,” and help share “other critical information to specific or other users,” during the election.

Related: Australia’s search ID goes into force, Ireland lobbies to ban anonymity

He leads the National Unity Platform political party and ran in the 2021 Ugandan presidential election, losing to Museveni. Wine alleges the election was rigged by Museveni, who denies the allegations and has ruled Uganda since 1986.

Bitchat trending on Google in Uganda

Google Trends search for “Bitchat” in Uganda spiked from 0 to 100 on Wednesday. Phrases such as “Bitchat apk download” and “how to use Bitchat” were among the top five related queries and were tagged as “breakout topics,” meaning they saw a “tremendous increase” in activity.

Chrome-Stats show Bitchat has been downloaded 936,104 times since its launch, with over 4,252 coming in the last day and more than 32,524 in the last week.

In September, the African island nation of Madagascar also experienced a spike in Bitchat downloads amid protests, following a similar uptick during unrest in Nepal and Indonesia earlier in the month.

Magazine: Worldcoin’s less ‘dystopian,’ more cypherpunk rival: Billions Network

Ethereum treasury company BitMine Immersion Technologies scooped up $97.6 million worth of Ether on Tuesday as the crypto market remains muted in the final days of 2025.

Nansen data shows BitMine purchased 32,938 Ether (ETH). Other data shows its total holdings is now 4.07 million ETH, worth $12 billion.

BitMine also staked another 118,944 ETH, continuing its strategy to earn passive returns for shareholders.

BitMine’s latest buying spree comes amid a broader crypto market compression, which Tom Lee,  the orchestrator of BitMine’s Ethereum strategy, said is partly due to an uptick in tax-loss selling in the US:

"Year-end tax-loss related selling is pushing down crypto and crypto equity prices and this effect tends to be the greatest from 12/26 to 12/30, so we are navigating markets with this in mind.”

More tax-loss selling typically happens toward the end of December as individuals and institutions offload assets to offset profits and lower their taxable income for the year.

Lee, a founder and managing partner of Fundstrat, said crypto prices have also been affected by institutional investors taking a break during the Christmas period, as it leaves bots to dominate trading activity.

The selling pressure has stalled upward price movement, with the crypto total market cap having now hovered around the $3 trillion mark for the past two weeks, CoinGecko data shows.

Change in crypto market cap over the past fortnight. Source: CoinGecko

BitMine’s ETH buying activity hasn’t slowed

Despite the market slump, BitMine has accumulated more than 77,400 ETH since last Monday, widening its lead over competitors and becoming what Lee describes as the largest “fresh money” buyer of ETH.

BitMine has now purchased more than 40,000 ETH each week for at least 10 consecutive weeks.

Digital asset treasuries by value of crypto holdings. Source: BitMine

Proposed California wealth tax stirs controversy

It comes as several crypto leaders slammed a proposed 5% wealth tax on billionaires earlier this week, with opponents arguing it could trigger an exodus of entrepreneurs and capital out of the tech-savvy state.

“I promise you this will be the final straw. Billionaires will take with them all of their spending, hobbies, philanthropy and jobs,” former Kraken CEO Jesse Powell said.

The proposal includes taxes on unrealized gains.

Magazine: 6 reasons Jack Dorsey is definitely Satoshi… and 5 reasons he’s not

The crypto market will be bleeding into 2026 depsite other major assets gaining; however, there will be a chance for crypto to play catch-up in the new year, according to market intelligence platform Santiment.

In an X post on Tuesday, analysts from Santiment said Bitcoin (BTC) is trailing behind gold and the stock market index S&P 500, which have both made slight recoveries after a crash in November saw bleeding across the board.

Since the start of November, gold is up 9%, the S&P 500 is up 1%, and Bitcoin is down 20%, trading for around $88,000 as of Wednesday.

Bitcoin is trailing behind gold and the S&P 500, but that could shift in 2026. Source: Santiment

“The correlation between Bitcoin & crypto compared to other major sectors is still lagging behind,” Santiment analysts said, adding that “Heading to 2026, there will remain an opportunity for crypto to play catch-up.”

Whales waiting on the sidelines

Large holders scooping up crypto again could be the first sign of a shift back, as whales slowed accumulation in the second half of 2025, according to Santiment.

“The second half of 2025 was dominated by aggressive accumulation by the small wallets, while large wallets essentially stayed flat, rising up to the Oct ATH, then selling.”  

Generally, large holders and whales are considered market movers, and their trades can influence market behavior, liquidity, and investor psychology.

“Historically, the best recipe for a bear pattern to flip to a bullish one is when large wallets accumulate, and retail dumps,” Santiment analysts added.

Long-term Bitcoin holders have also stopped selling, pumping the brakes on offloading crypto for the first time six months after trimming their positions from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million in December.

Shift back into crypto could already be underway

Garrett Jin, former CEO of the now-defunct crypto exchange BitForex, speculated that traders have already started to shift out of other sectors and back into crypto.

Data from the on-chain analytics platform Nansen shows that the number of active Bitcoin addresses has risen 5.51% in the last 24 hours, while transactions are down nearly 30%.

The number of active Bitcoin addresses has risen, but transaction volume is down. Source: Nansen 

“The short squeeze in metals is over as expected. Capital is beginning to flow into crypto,” Jin said on Tuesday, adding in response to a user's question about whether traders investing in precious metals also buy crypto, “Capital is the same. Always sell high and buy low.”

Related: Bitcoin’s $90K rejection: Is BTC's digital gold narrative losing to bonds?

At the same time, investor and market analyst X account CyrilXBT, said the market is in a “classic late-cycle positioning before a shift.”

“When liquidity turns and BTC breaks structure: Gold cools, BTC leads, ETH follows, Alts finally wake up. The market always moves before the narrative does. Stay patient. This phase is designed to test conviction.” 

Magazine: Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

The US Federal Reserve has been highly influential on crypto market momentum this year, and its impact is likely to continue into 2026 as divisions among policymakers remain.

The Fed made three interest rate cuts in 2025, the most recent on December 10, which brought rates down to between 3.5% to 3.75%. 

However, projections suggest there will only be one additional cut in 2026 despite rates remaining at their highest levels since 2008.

Key factors influencing policymaker decisions are labor market data, inflation trajectory, particularly from tariff impacts, and overall economic growth.

The central bank will also get a new chair when Jerome Powell’s tenure ends in May, and President Donald Trump has already been shortlisting candidates who are most likely to be dovish.

US rates remain at an 18-year high despite three cuts this year. Source: Macro Trends

What will the Fed do in early 2026?

The Fed’s next meeting on January 27 and 28 will be pivotal as it is the first chance for the Fed’s governors to update guidance, which could set the tone for the quarter.

CME Group shows investors predict only a 20% probability of another 25 basis point rate cut in January, which rises to 45% of a cut at the Fed’s meeting in mid-March. 

The Dot Plot shows divisions 

The December 2025 dot plot, showing each policymaker’s interest rate projection, shows remarkable division, with equal numbers projecting zero, one, or two rate cuts, creating significant uncertainty for markets as 2026 begins.

The chart provides transparency into Fed thinking, but the projections frequently change as new economic data emerges. 

Current median projections for the end of 2025 are 3.6%, essentially the current rate, and 3.4% by the end of 2026, which indicates only one cut for 2026.

December Dot Plot shows divisions on where policymakers think rates will be at the end of 2026. Source: Federal Reserve

Analysts at Charles Schwab said after the Fed’s cut in December that the “updated projections were not particularly hawkish,” with 12 of the 19 policymakers projecting at least one more cut next year.

Analysts hope for two cuts in 2026

CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko told Cointelegraph that the Fed “faces significant internal divisions,” and the dot plot shows a “wide dispersion of views and no clear consensus on the path for interest rates in 2026.”

“In my view, the Fed is likely to deliver two rate cuts in 2026. The Fed will probably take a break in January, followed by one rate cut in March, which would fall within the remainder of Powell’s term as Chair, running through May.”

“This timing would be justified if labor market conditions remain soft, even as inflation potentially peaks above 3% in Q2. Following the leadership transition, the new Fed leadership is likely to continue a gradual easing cycle through the rest of the year,” he said. 

Related: Crypto has everything needed for a bull market, so why is the market down?

There are a few scenarios that could play out with the Fed in Q1, Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at the BTSE exchange, told Cointelegraph. 

“The base case scenario is that the Fed cuts rates once in Q1 and maintains its current rate of Treasury bill buybacks, which will unleash some liquidity into the market that could be good for crypto inflows,” he said. 

“In a bull case scenario where inflation goes down, and unemployment goes up, the Fed would have to move more aggressively, initiating two cuts and stepping up its T-bill buybacks. Crypto markets would benefit as demand for risk-on assets would spike.”

However, the worst-case scenario is if inflation rears its ugly head again and the Fed is forced to halt rate cuts and T-bill buybacks altogether. Such a fear could cause stock and crypto markets to plunge, he added. 

Toned down hope for 2026 

Justin d'Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, told Cointelegraph that most people had big hopes about the end of quantitative tightening and a possible new era of Fed dovishness. 

“Most feel disappointed, though, as the Fed seems accommodating but still very cautious,” he added. 

“For an asset that essentially hedges reckless central bank policies, the depreciation of fiat currencies and, ultimately, the amount of liquidity in global markets, this more measured approach tones down the euphoric phase most crypto traders are (or were) hoping for.”

Nevertheless, a new chair could shift the Fed’s overall stance on rate policy and its willingness to support risk assets like crypto.

When interest rates are lowered, investors tend to seek higher-risk assets such as crypto, as traditional investments like bonds and term deposits become less attractive. This increases demand and buying pressure, and prices usually follow. 

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Pakistan's ability to “move fast” with crypto regulation and adoption could it become a world leader in crypto by 2030, according to former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao. 

In a recent interview with Pakistan Crypto Council CEO Bilal bin Saqib, CZ credited Pakistan’s leadership for recognizing the demand for digital assets among its relatively young and tech-savvy population.

“I think it's fantastic to see the country of this size are able to have this clear vision from the leadership and ability to move at this speed.”

“If we keep moving at this speed in five years, Pakistan will be the crypto leader, one of the crypto leaders in the world,” said CZ, who serves as strategic adviser to the crypto council.

A conversation between Changpeng Zhao (@cz_binance), Founder of Binance and Chairman PVARA, @BilalBinSaqib on the future of crypto in Pakistan.

From Pakistan’s potential to tokenization and what comes next for the virtual asset economy.

Timestamps:

- Why Pakistan for Crypto?:… pic.twitter.com/ILGHOMBdWY

— Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (@PakistanVARA) December 30, 2025

Pakistan has taken major steps to formalize its crypto ecosystem this year, including establishing the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority, permitting crypto exchanges Binance and HTX to operate in the country, building a Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, and exploring real-world asset tokenization to attract foreign investment and boost liquidity.

CZ bullish on Pakistan’s tokenization idea

Asked about the benefit tokenizing Pakistan’s stock market could bring, CZ responded:

“Which country doesn't want the global population to buy their stocks?” 

“Tokenizing stocks allows the global population to buy those tokens, that is basically direct investment into those stocks of Pakistan,” CZ said.

CZ encouraged Pakistan to also move quickly on its tokenization plans, noting that the countries that implement them first will reap the most benefits.

Smaller Pakistani players can experiment with crypto too 

For individuals and smaller businesses, CZ said blockchain offers many opportunities compared to traditional banking and AI due to its lower barrier to entry: 

“If a young person wants to start a bank, it's pretty limited opportunities [...] If they want to build an AI company, they probably don't have the large data, the large compute, all the chips, so both of those industries require quite a bit of resources to do a startup.”

On the other hand, blockchain and crypto are different because it’s all virtual, CZ said, adding: 

“The blockchain will never reject you.”

CZ said “Blockchain is one of the best places for entrepreneurs” but acknowledged there needs to be more education, university programs, and incubators to foster innovation.

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The aggressiveness of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 will determine whether retail investors return to the crypto market next year, according to a crypto analyst.

But there are doubts about how likely the Fed is to continue cutting, after already making three reductions in 2025.

Clear Street managing director Owen Lau told CNBC on Tuesday that Fed rate decisions are “one of the key catalysts for the crypto space in 2026.”

“Retail will be more excited to get into crypto, institutions will be more excited to get into crypto,” Lau said.

Interest rate cuts are typically bullish for crypto assets, as traditional investments like bonds and term deposits become less attractive, pushing investors toward riskier assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies as they look for higher returns.

Fed is “prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy”

The Fed’s December minutes, released on Tuesday, indicate that the central bank is open to adjusting rates next year to align with broader economic goals.

“The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals,” the minutes said.

However, some data shows the market is skeptical whether the Fed will continue cutting rates in the first months of the year, according to crypto prediction platform Polymarket. 

Polymarket odds rise significantly for the Fed making a rate cut in April. Source: Polymarket

Polymarket’s data shows just a 15% probability of a rate cut in January, while confidence is higher for a rate cut in March, with a 52% chance.

The Fed has implemented three rate cuts in 2025, and the market had anticipated most of them. The first cut, a 25 basis point reduction, came in September. About a month later, on Oct. 5, Bitcoin surged to a new high of $125,100. 

However, Bitcoin’s uptrend was short-lived by a significant liquidation event on Oct. 10 that led to $19 billion wiped out in leveraged positions.

Crypto market sentiment continues to decline

This was followed by another 25 basis point rate cut in October, and a further 25 basis point cut in December, though the minutes showed that Fed members were divided on whether the December cut was necessary.

Bitcoin is down 29.3% from its October all-time high, trading at $88,439 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

It comes amid a decline in sentiment for the broader crypto market.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, has been in the “Extreme Fear” territory since Dec. 13. 

On Wednesday, the index posted an “Extreme Fear” score of 23.

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The US government has filed a letter opposing the introduction of an amicus brief from the digital asset advocacy group DeFi Education Fund as the court considers a possible retrial for two brothers allegedly behind a $25 million exploit of the Ethereum blockchain.

In a Tuesday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, interim US Attorney Jay Clayton submitted a letter to Judge Jessica Clarke requesting that a brief from the DeFi Education Fund (DEF) not be accepted while the court considers a motion to dismiss the case against Anton and James Peraire-Bueno. 

“Detached from the trial record, the brief merely recites legal arguments already rejected by this Court,” said Clayton, referring to the DeFi Education Fund’s amicus brief, adding:

“Here, where the Court has already ruled on the legal issues presented in the amicus brief and DEF does not offer any unique information relevant to the pending motion before the Court, DEF’s submission is not likely to aid the Court’s consideration of the particular issues [over a motion to acquit].”

Source: PACER

In November, Clarke declared a mistrial in the case after jurors failed to agree on whether to convict or acquit the brothers, alleged to have committed the exploit using automated maximal extractable value (MEV) bots. Within a week, the US government requested the court schedule a retrial for the brothers “as soon as practicable in late February or early March 2026.”

According to a proposed draft of the DEF brief filed on Dec. 19, the organization supported the motion to acquit or dismiss the indictment, arguing that the case had “broader implications” for the industry.

“[P]rosecutions like this one bring ambiguity and fear to software developers, chilling participation in DeFi and driving participants abroad,” said DEF, adding: “The DOJ should not get ahead of prospective lawmaking by bringing indictments based on ill-fitting interpretations of existing law, which will stifle growth by sowing confusion about the governing rules.”

Cointelegraph reached out to the DeFi Education Fund for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Crypto industry weighs in on implications of case

With the future of the Peraire-Bueno brothers uncertain, many in the crypto industry are still looking to how the case could affect MEV-related activities.

Crypto advocacy organization Coin Center filed an amicus brief during the criminal trial, arguing against the US government’s theory of the case. Prosecutors also requested that the court not accept the brief.

The brothers initially faced charges of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, money laundering and conspiracy to receive stolen property. If retried on the same charges and found guilty, they could potentially be sentenced to up to 20 years in prison for each count.

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