BigBreakingWire

🚨 BREAKING: Oil Extends Rally After Houthi Attacks on Saudi Oil Tankers

• Brent crude surged to $96.12 a barrel (+2.35%), while WTI remained near $88 amid escalating Middle East tensions.

• Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed missile and drone attacks on the Saudi oil tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea.

• The UKMTO reported a ship was struck by a projectile near Al Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, triggering a fire onboard.

Chinese open-weight AI models remain about four months behind closed-weight frontier models in overall capabilities, according to the Epoch Capabilities Index.

🚨 Fitch Warns Developed Market Debt to Hit Record $75.8T

• Fitch Ratings expects developed market government debt to rise by $4.2 trillion in 2026, reaching a record $75.8 trillion.

• Government debt is projected to reach 104% of GDP by year-end, up from 68% two decades ago.

• US debt-to-GDP is forecast to rise from 120% in 2026 to 131.5% by 2030, while Japan remains highest at nearly 192%.

• Fitch said defence spending, ageing populations, and climate costs will keep government deficits elevated for years.

🚨 BREAKING: US Set to Impose New Tariffs on 60 Economies

• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said new tariffs on 60 economies are coming as Trump's 10% Section 122 duties expire on July 24.

• Proposed Section 301 tariffs of 10%-12.5% would replace the expiring levy, citing forced labour concerns.

• Greer said the new measures could cover about 99% of US trade, adding investors should "expect action soon."

• Trump has already signed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, while a 25% tariff on Brazilian imports takes effect on Wednesday.

$USDJPY - Japanese yen is at its lowest level since late 1986.

China: Customs said the country's cross-border e-commerce import and export value reached 2.84 trillion yuan in 2025, up 4.8% YoY.

Cross-border e-commerce exports via overseas warehouses rose 3.3x in the first half, while around 140 million Chinese consumers purchased goods internationally through cross-border e-commerce.

Market procurement exports exceeded 800 billion yuan in 2025.

Officials said China is now a major trading partner for more than 160 countries and regions, with broader import sources, improved product variety and higher-quality goods.

To boost inbound consumption, China will simplify tax refund procedures for foreign visitors. From July 1, refund claims below 10,000 yuan will move to a spot-check sampling system, with fully paperless processing.

Authorities said additional customs reforms will support services trade and strengthen the "Shop in China" initiative.

South Korea: The Korea Exchange triggered a program trading curb on the KOSPI after the benchmark surged 4.00% intraday to 6,777.32. Samsung Electronics jumped 6.4%, while SK Hynix gained 4.7% amid the rally.

🚨 Big Tech's Hidden AI Commitments Hit $1.65 Trillion

• Nikkei reports Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle hold $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure commitments.

• The obligations include long-term GPU purchases and data center leases, disclosed only in financial statement footnotes under GAAP.

• These off-balance-sheet commitments have surged 8x in four years, now exceeding the companies' reported debt.

• Analysts warn the hidden liabilities could trigger liquidity pressures if AI demand falls short of the aggressive growth assumptions behind the spending.

Do you think Big Tech's AI investment boom is sustainable, or are hidden liabilities becoming a major risk?

🚨 Global Refining Crisis Deepens, Oil Surges Above $90 👀

Around 5 million barrels/day of global refining capacity is offline, according to Reuters.

Russia's largest Omsk refinery was shut after Ukrainian drone strikes; a major petrochemical complex was also hit.

Renewed Middle East fighting is delaying refinery restarts as U.S. strikes on Iran entered a ninth day.

Crude oil topped $90/barrel, while fuel crack spreads hit record highs and the IEA said normalization requires a lasting peace deal.

US Chip Stocks: Semiconductor stocks rebounded overnight, with a semiconductor ETF up about 1.3%, while NVIDIA, AMD and Micron gained. The Nasdaq traded near unchanged.

Earlier selling pressure and leverage-driven rebalancing eased temporarily, offering short-term relief to Korean and broader East Asian memory and semiconductor equipment stocks.

Markets now await earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and Intel, which are expected to test AI demand, capital spending plans and corporate earnings.

The sustainability of the rebound will depend on whether results justify elevated AI-driven market expectations.

Goldman Sachs: Said renewed Middle East tensions increase the upside risk to its Q4 2026 oil price forecasts of $80/bbl for Brent and $75/bbl for WTI.

The bank warned Brent crude could surge above $120/bbl in Q4 2026 if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist.

Russia’s gold reserves fell for a 6th consecutive month in June.

Holdings down 0.4% to 2,282.995 tonnes
Value dropped 8.25% to $298.99B
Gold’s share of reserves slipped to 41.5% from 43.6%

Still, on a yearly basis:
Gold holdings value is up 66.85% YoY
Gold’s share of reserves rose from 32.13% to 43.26%

Takeaway: Short-term decline, but gold remains a key reserve asset for Russia.

#GOLD

Goldman Sachs: Hedge Funds Dumping US Tech Stocks at Record Pace

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $75.67 million in net inflows last week.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounted for $204 million in net inflows, dominating investor demand.

The week's flows were heavily concentrated in IBIT, rather than being broadly distributed across multiple spot Bitcoin ETF issuers.

The figures represent net subscriptions minus redemptions across the entire U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.

🚨 South Korean retail investors suffered heavy losses after a sharp reversal in AI-driven leveraged bets through single-stock ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

KB Financial Group data show domestic retail investors bought KRW14 trillion ($9.4 billion) of these ETFs since their May 27 launch, compared with about KRW2 trillion in net buying by foreign investors.

LSEG data show the KODEX 2x SK Hynix Leveraged ETF has fallen about 70% from its June peak and roughly 50% since launch, highlighting the risks of concentrated leveraged exposure to AI chip stocks.

$SKHY $SAMSUNG

🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI plunged 5% on Monday as investors unwound leveraged AI-related positions, extending its four-week losing streak.

The index is now 28% below its record high of June 22, reflecting growing concerns over excessive reliance on leveraged bets in AI chip stocks.

The sell-off has renewed downside pressure on South Korea, a key barometer of the global AI trade.

Citigroup downgraded South Korean equities from Overweight to Neutral in its allocation model due to persistent volatility, while maintaining a KOSPI target of 10,000.

🚨 Citi Downgrades South Korea Stocks to Neutral Amid AI Volatility

Citigroup cuts South Korean equities to Neutral from Overweight.

Move driven by extreme volatility in chip stocks and reduced exposure to AI-themed trades.

Retail-driven leveraged ETF activity and rich valuations fueled sharp swings in the KOSPI.

Citi says it remains long-term bullish on AI, but has turned more cautious on Korea in the near term.

#KospiFallsOnTechSelloff

Korea Exchange activated the KOSDAQ sidecar mechanism, suspending algorithmic trading for 5 minutes. The KOSPI index fell over 4%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both dropping 4.4%.

#KospiFallsOnTechSelloff

South Korea will allow foreign financial institutions to borrow Korean won through temporary overdrafts and use won-denominated bonds as collateral in financial transactions.

The measures are part of a broader plan to boost the global use of the won and reduce its reliance as a primarily domestic currency.

The initiative follows Seoul's extension of USD/KRW trading to 24 hours from July 6, signaling further liberalization of the country's foreign exchange market.

Binance will launch the SPCXUSD1 perpetual futures contract on July 20 at 09:00 UTC, offering up to 25x leverage.

The contract is tied to SpaceX shares and will be settled in USD1, the stablecoin associated with World Liberty Financial.

USD1 is backed by U.S. Treasuries and has a market capitalization of around $4.2 billion.

SpaceX shares have fallen sharply since their June launch, dropping below the $150 opening price to a record low in early July.