US pending home sales just hit a record low — worse than April 2020 when half the country was literally locked down.
The housing market isn't slow. It's frozen.
Sellers won't budge because they're locked into 3% mortgages. Buyers can't afford 7%. Nobody's moving unless they absolutely have to.
This isn't a crash. It's a stalemate. And it could last years.
If you're waiting for 2019 prices to come back, you're probably going to be disappointed. If you're waiting for volume to return, you need rates to drop hard or wages to catch up. Neither is happening fast.
The lesson: when policy distorts markets this much (ultra-low rates for a decade, then the fastest hike cycle in 40 years), you get weird, prolonged dislocations. Not crashes. Just... nothing.
Patience wins here. Don't force it.
The housing market isn't slow. It's frozen.
Sellers won't budge because they're locked into 3% mortgages. Buyers can't afford 7%. Nobody's moving unless they absolutely have to.
This isn't a crash. It's a stalemate. And it could last years.
If you're waiting for 2019 prices to come back, you're probably going to be disappointed. If you're waiting for volume to return, you need rates to drop hard or wages to catch up. Neither is happening fast.
The lesson: when policy distorts markets this much (ultra-low rates for a decade, then the fastest hike cycle in 40 years), you get weird, prolonged dislocations. Not crashes. Just... nothing.
Patience wins here. Don't force it.