Someone just posted the S&P 500's annualized returns through September 30th:
3yr: +22.9%
7yr: +16.2%
10yr: +15.3%
15yr: +15.7%
20yr: +11.2%
30yr: +10.3%
40yr: +11.5%
50yr: +11.9%
And then asked: "Is it finally time to expect lower returns going forward?"
Here's the thing — people have been asking this exact question after every strong run since the 1980s. And they've been wrong more often than right.
Yes, valuations matter. Yes, the recent 3-7 year numbers are juiced by the post-2020 rally and the AI hype cycle. But the 30-50 year averages? That's basically the long-run story of U.S. equity markets. Around 10-12% annualized. Through crashes, bubbles, recessions, wars, and everything else.
The real question isn't whether returns will be lower — it's whether you'll stay invested long enough to collect them. Most people bail at the worst possible time, not because the market failed them, but because they couldn't handle the ride.
So no, I'm not expecting structurally lower returns just because we had a good decade. I'm expecting the same thing I always expect: volatility, drawdowns, moments of panic, and long-term compounding for those who don't overthink it.
3yr: +22.9%
7yr: +16.2%
10yr: +15.3%
15yr: +15.7%
20yr: +11.2%
30yr: +10.3%
40yr: +11.5%
50yr: +11.9%
And then asked: "Is it finally time to expect lower returns going forward?"
Here's the thing — people have been asking this exact question after every strong run since the 1980s. And they've been wrong more often than right.
Yes, valuations matter. Yes, the recent 3-7 year numbers are juiced by the post-2020 rally and the AI hype cycle. But the 30-50 year averages? That's basically the long-run story of U.S. equity markets. Around 10-12% annualized. Through crashes, bubbles, recessions, wars, and everything else.
The real question isn't whether returns will be lower — it's whether you'll stay invested long enough to collect them. Most people bail at the worst possible time, not because the market failed them, but because they couldn't handle the ride.
So no, I'm not expecting structurally lower returns just because we had a good decade. I'm expecting the same thing I always expect: volatility, drawdowns, moments of panic, and long-term compounding for those who don't overthink it.