Macro is breaking the textbook playbook right now. High inflation usually = stronger dollar + higher yields. But we're seeing the opposite — weak $USD and yields dropping.
This is either:
1) Markets pricing in Fed pivot faster than expected
2) Flight to safety BUT away from dollars (geopolitical risk premium?)
3) Inflation peaking narrative getting priced in early
4) Liquidity/flow dynamics overpowering fundamentals
Whatever it is, it's messy. When the usual correlations break, that's when the real money gets made or lost. Stay sharp.
This is either:
1) Markets pricing in Fed pivot faster than expected
2) Flight to safety BUT away from dollars (geopolitical risk premium?)
3) Inflation peaking narrative getting priced in early
4) Liquidity/flow dynamics overpowering fundamentals
Whatever it is, it's messy. When the usual correlations break, that's when the real money gets made or lost. Stay sharp.