#cpiwatch
đš CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% forecast: the surprise is small, the signal is not.
September CPI rose 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY. Core CPI hit 2.6% (vs 2.5% expected). Gasoline drove over half of the monthly gain, but shelter and services also rose, so this isnât only an energy shock.
Bond market reaction:
đ 2Y yield jumped ~7â10 bps to ~4.87â4.89%
â ïž Odds of an October Fed hike rose from ~20% to the 40â46% range
Cooler data would have eased hike bets. Instead, the âhigher for longerâ story is back.
Why it matters for BTC: tighter liquidity weighs on risk assets, and BTC slipped toward ~$81.5K, roughly in line with Nasdaqâs drop.
My read: the market trades the surprise, not the headline. Iâm not chasing the dip. Iâm watching (1) whether the 2Y yield holds above 4.85%, (2) Brent near $106, (3) a BTC reclaim of $84K on real spot volume. Next catalyst: Fed decision on Oct 28.
Hike or hold? Drop your call đ
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#CPIWatch #Bitcoin #Fed #Inflation
$BTC
$ETH
$BZ
đš CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% forecast: the surprise is small, the signal is not.
September CPI rose 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY. Core CPI hit 2.6% (vs 2.5% expected). Gasoline drove over half of the monthly gain, but shelter and services also rose, so this isnât only an energy shock.
Bond market reaction:
đ 2Y yield jumped ~7â10 bps to ~4.87â4.89%
â ïž Odds of an October Fed hike rose from ~20% to the 40â46% range
Cooler data would have eased hike bets. Instead, the âhigher for longerâ story is back.
Why it matters for BTC: tighter liquidity weighs on risk assets, and BTC slipped toward ~$81.5K, roughly in line with Nasdaqâs drop.
My read: the market trades the surprise, not the headline. Iâm not chasing the dip. Iâm watching (1) whether the 2Y yield holds above 4.85%, (2) Brent near $106, (3) a BTC reclaim of $84K on real spot volume. Next catalyst: Fed decision on Oct 28.
Hike or hold? Drop your call đ
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#CPIWatch #Bitcoin #Fed #Inflation
$BTC
$ETH
$BZ