September core CPI printed +0.3% m/m against 0.2% expected, 2.6% y/y vs 2.5%, the second 0.3% in a row... and this time it was the 2-year that took the hit. The 2Y rose ~12bp to 4.92% and the 10Y ~9bp to 5.31%. When the front end leads like that the market's pricing more Fed, which is a different move from last week's, where the long end sold off while the expected Fed path drifted lower.
About 20 minutes after the print, FedWatch had a 28 October hike at 44-49%, basically a coin flip, with December at ~1.4 hikes and still no cuts priced through 2027. I think it's a point for Hammack, who wants smaller steps done quickly, over Waller's view that higher yields are already doing some of the work.
$XAU was down 1.6% intraday with the dollar up 0.6%, and $BTC lost ~1.5% in the first 15 minutes. That's how assets without a cash flow tend to trade when the rate path moves up.
The Beige Book lands this afternoon, tonight's settle shows how much of the October pricing sticks, and Warsh speaks Friday before the blackout starts. I'll be watching whether the 2-year holds the move.
#CPI #Fed #Gold #Rates #Macro
About 20 minutes after the print, FedWatch had a 28 October hike at 44-49%, basically a coin flip, with December at ~1.4 hikes and still no cuts priced through 2027. I think it's a point for Hammack, who wants smaller steps done quickly, over Waller's view that higher yields are already doing some of the work.
$XAU was down 1.6% intraday with the dollar up 0.6%, and $BTC lost ~1.5% in the first 15 minutes. That's how assets without a cash flow tend to trade when the rate path moves up.
The Beige Book lands this afternoon, tonight's settle shows how much of the October pricing sticks, and Warsh speaks Friday before the blackout starts. I'll be watching whether the 2-year holds the move.
#CPI #Fed #Gold #Rates #Macro