Seized Bitcoin from the old Bitfinex hack is not automatically a market dump, even though that is the story most traders are already pricing in.
If you have been trying to time an exit on $BTC, this is the kind of headline that gets people out first and checking the wallet path later. You sell the fear, the coins never reach an order book, and you are left chasing a move that was only a custody shuffle.
The billion-dollar question is still where those coins go next. The 2025 restitution process calls for Bitcoin seized directly from the hack wallet to be returned to Bitfinex in kind, which weakens the reserve-overhang idea for this specific tranche. A transfer into Bitfinex custody carries less immediate market risk than an open-market sale. Those are not the same event, and treating them as one is how people donate their position.
The bearish signal is narrower than the headlines. If the next hop is an exchange venue set up for liquidation, that is when supply can actually hit price. Until that shows up, spot Bitcoin ETF selling looks more concrete, with US funds already the ones shedding Bitcoin while everyone stares at the restitution wallets. $LEO sits on the receiving side of an in-kind return, so the path matters more than the scary wallet label.
Where do you think this tranche goes from here?
#Bitcoin #OnChain #Bitfinex
If you have been trying to time an exit on $BTC, this is the kind of headline that gets people out first and checking the wallet path later. You sell the fear, the coins never reach an order book, and you are left chasing a move that was only a custody shuffle.
The billion-dollar question is still where those coins go next. The 2025 restitution process calls for Bitcoin seized directly from the hack wallet to be returned to Bitfinex in kind, which weakens the reserve-overhang idea for this specific tranche. A transfer into Bitfinex custody carries less immediate market risk than an open-market sale. Those are not the same event, and treating them as one is how people donate their position.
The bearish signal is narrower than the headlines. If the next hop is an exchange venue set up for liquidation, that is when supply can actually hit price. Until that shows up, spot Bitcoin ETF selling looks more concrete, with US funds already the ones shedding Bitcoin while everyone stares at the restitution wallets. $LEO sits on the receiving side of an in-kind return, so the path matters more than the scary wallet label.
Where do you think this tranche goes from here?
#Bitcoin #OnChain #Bitfinex