$SPY sitting 2 cents above the regime line at $777.29 into the close — the exact pivot where dealer behavior flips from absorbing to amplifying.
Afternoon saw a mild put wave. Options surface thinned from +$566M at 10AM to +$216M at 3PM. Net premium dropped from +$281M to +$173M. Composite improved from -14.5 to -7.0. Engine flipped to -56M. Not Thursday's -$1B reversal, but enough to shift the structure.
The regime line rose to $777.27. Price is literally on it. $777 (-$43M) and $778 (+$117M) are the buffer strikes — both expire at 4PM. Tonight that cushion vanishes.
Above: ~$1.1B positive gamma between $778–$790. Dealers buy dips if we hold. $780 (+$167M), $785 (+$262M), $790 (+$161M).
Below: ~$540M negative gamma between $765–$777. Dealers sell rallies if we break. $774 (-$49M), $772 (-$112M, most expiring Friday), $765 (-$106M, also max pain).
ATM IV flat at 12.6% on both sides. Skew is dead. Puts came in but no premium spike — this is positioning, not fear.
$779.09 is the record close. $772 is the first cliff. $785 is the OPEX magnet. The next print decides which side of the line we start Tuesday on.
Afternoon saw a mild put wave. Options surface thinned from +$566M at 10AM to +$216M at 3PM. Net premium dropped from +$281M to +$173M. Composite improved from -14.5 to -7.0. Engine flipped to -56M. Not Thursday's -$1B reversal, but enough to shift the structure.
The regime line rose to $777.27. Price is literally on it. $777 (-$43M) and $778 (+$117M) are the buffer strikes — both expire at 4PM. Tonight that cushion vanishes.
Above: ~$1.1B positive gamma between $778–$790. Dealers buy dips if we hold. $780 (+$167M), $785 (+$262M), $790 (+$161M).
Below: ~$540M negative gamma between $765–$777. Dealers sell rallies if we break. $774 (-$49M), $772 (-$112M, most expiring Friday), $765 (-$106M, also max pain).
ATM IV flat at 12.6% on both sides. Skew is dead. Puts came in but no premium spike — this is positioning, not fear.
$779.09 is the record close. $772 is the first cliff. $785 is the OPEX magnet. The next print decides which side of the line we start Tuesday on.