#fedminutesfocusonoctoberpause
The Fed's Minutes Say "One More Hike," While the Data Says "Not So Fast"
The Fed's own record of its September meeting just landed, and it paints a more hawkish picture than the market is currently pricing.
Here's what the minutes released October 7 show: every participant supported September's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4.00%, and some felt policy hadn't been restrictive enough beforehand. Most officials judged that another increase before year-end would likely be appropriate. Crucially, though, the minutes didn't signal that October is the meeting for it, and the tone suggested no rush. Markets have taken that and run with it: CME FedWatch puts the probability of a hold at the October 27-28 meeting at roughly 83%, with a December hike still seen as the base case by some analysts.
The timing matters. The minutes cover a meeting held before September's weak payrolls report (29,000 jobs, unemployment up to 4.2%) and the cooler August PCE reading. So they capture where officials stood, not necessarily where they stand now.
Why does this matter? The gap between the Fed's stated inclination and the incoming data is exactly what drove the month's wild swing in October hike odds. For risk assets, including crypto, the question is less about one meeting and more about how long "higher for longer" lasts.
Will softer data change the Fed's mind, or just its timing? 🤔
#FederalReserve #fomc #RateHike #Macro
$MET $BSP $OGN
The Fed's Minutes Say "One More Hike," While the Data Says "Not So Fast"
The Fed's own record of its September meeting just landed, and it paints a more hawkish picture than the market is currently pricing.
Here's what the minutes released October 7 show: every participant supported September's quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4.00%, and some felt policy hadn't been restrictive enough beforehand. Most officials judged that another increase before year-end would likely be appropriate. Crucially, though, the minutes didn't signal that October is the meeting for it, and the tone suggested no rush. Markets have taken that and run with it: CME FedWatch puts the probability of a hold at the October 27-28 meeting at roughly 83%, with a December hike still seen as the base case by some analysts.
The timing matters. The minutes cover a meeting held before September's weak payrolls report (29,000 jobs, unemployment up to 4.2%) and the cooler August PCE reading. So they capture where officials stood, not necessarily where they stand now.
Why does this matter? The gap between the Fed's stated inclination and the incoming data is exactly what drove the month's wild swing in October hike odds. For risk assets, including crypto, the question is less about one meeting and more about how long "higher for longer" lasts.
Will softer data change the Fed's mind, or just its timing? 🤔
#FederalReserve #fomc #RateHike #Macro
$MET $BSP $OGN