#fedminutesfocusonoctoberpause
Is a Fed pause really bullish for Bitcoin, or are traders focusing on the wrong part of the story? đ
One thing Iâve learned from watching crypto through different market cycles: the first candle usually trades the headline. The next move tells you whether the market actually believed it.
Markets now put October 25 bps hike odds around 21.6%, after the Fed raised rates to 3.75%â4.00% in September. Softer inflation and weaker jobs data have pushed expectations toward a pause.
But hereâs where I think the real trade is:
Why is the Fed pausing?
If inflation is cooling, a pause can support risk appetite.
If growth and employment are weakening enough to force caution, the same pause can tell a very different story.
Thatâs why Iâm not trading the word âpause.â
Iâm watching the reaction:
Fed tone â Treasury yields â DXY â BTC
My view: the first BTC move could easily be a trap. I want to see yields and the dollar confirm the direction before calling it a real trend move.
If the Fed pauses, what matters more: the decision or the reason behind it? đ
$BTC #bitcoin #Fed #FederalReserve #crypto
Is a Fed pause really bullish for Bitcoin, or are traders focusing on the wrong part of the story? đ
One thing Iâve learned from watching crypto through different market cycles: the first candle usually trades the headline. The next move tells you whether the market actually believed it.
Markets now put October 25 bps hike odds around 21.6%, after the Fed raised rates to 3.75%â4.00% in September. Softer inflation and weaker jobs data have pushed expectations toward a pause.
But hereâs where I think the real trade is:
Why is the Fed pausing?
If inflation is cooling, a pause can support risk appetite.
If growth and employment are weakening enough to force caution, the same pause can tell a very different story.
Thatâs why Iâm not trading the word âpause.â
Iâm watching the reaction:
Fed tone â Treasury yields â DXY â BTC
My view: the first BTC move could easily be a trap. I want to see yields and the dollar confirm the direction before calling it a real trend move.
If the Fed pauses, what matters more: the decision or the reason behind it? đ
$BTC #bitcoin #Fed #FederalReserve #crypto
