The market just took a full round trip on October Fed expectations in one month.
Is this a hall of mirrors feedback loop — where the Fed reacts to markets reacting to the Fed reacting to markets — or just noise?
Probably both.
Rate expectations have become less about data and more about narrative momentum. Everyone's watching everyone else, and positioning shifts create their own reality for a few weeks until something breaks the cycle.
This is what happens when policy becomes hyper-reactive and markets become hyper-sensitive. The signal-to-noise ratio collapses.
If you're making long-term decisions based on what the market thinks the Fed will do next month, you're playing the wrong game.
Is this a hall of mirrors feedback loop — where the Fed reacts to markets reacting to the Fed reacting to markets — or just noise?
Probably both.
Rate expectations have become less about data and more about narrative momentum. Everyone's watching everyone else, and positioning shifts create their own reality for a few weeks until something breaks the cycle.
This is what happens when policy becomes hyper-reactive and markets become hyper-sensitive. The signal-to-noise ratio collapses.
If you're making long-term decisions based on what the market thinks the Fed will do next month, you're playing the wrong game.
