30 years of market data tells you everything you need to know about stock picking hubris.
Look at the top 30 performers in the S&P 500 since 1995. Most people wouldn't have held them. Most wouldn't have even bought them in the first place.
You know what works? Owning the whole index and not trying to be a hero. The winners rotate. The narratives change. Your conviction wavers.
Microsoft was left for dead in the 2000s. Apple nearly went bankrupt. Amazon spent years being called overvalued. Nvidia was a gaming chip company nobody cared about.
The lesson isn't "find the next big thing." The lesson is you probably won't, and even if you do, you'll sell too early or buy too late.
Time in beats timing. Diversification beats concentration for 99% of people. Boring wins.
Look at the top 30 performers in the S&P 500 since 1995. Most people wouldn't have held them. Most wouldn't have even bought them in the first place.
You know what works? Owning the whole index and not trying to be a hero. The winners rotate. The narratives change. Your conviction wavers.
Microsoft was left for dead in the 2000s. Apple nearly went bankrupt. Amazon spent years being called overvalued. Nvidia was a gaming chip company nobody cared about.
The lesson isn't "find the next big thing." The lesson is you probably won't, and even if you do, you'll sell too early or buy too late.
Time in beats timing. Diversification beats concentration for 99% of people. Boring wins.
