Glassnode's latest reading puts 73.6% of Bitcoin's circulating supply in profit, with ETF holders sitting on unusually large gains. Headlines are framing this as fresh bullish confirmation.$BTC
Worth slowing down on that for a second.
This same metric sat at 65% back in May. It climbed to 68% by late August, then 69.3% in mid-September, a level Glassnode itself flagged at the time as sitting above its own statistical high band. By September 28, it had pushed to 74%.
73.6% today is actually a small step down from that peak, not a continued climb. I think that's worth knowing before treating today's number as a fresh milestone, since it's really one point on a run that's been building for months and may have already topped out a few days ago.
Here's what the number actually measures, for anyone unfamiliar, since the percentage alone doesn't explain much: it's the share of circulating coins last bought below today's price. Glassnode's own September 28 report paired this exact reading with a caution, not a cheer, noting that elevated profitability "gives more holders a reason to sell into strength." That's a fairly plain mechanism once you sit with it. More coins in profit just means more coins that could get sold whenever their holders decide the moment's right.
There's a sharper detail specifically on the ETF side. The ETF MVRV metric jumped from -0.54 to 1.31 in a short stretch, meaning ETF holders went from underwater in aggregate to solidly profitable within weeks. That's a fast move, tbh, fast enough that I'd want to see it hold for a bit before reading too much into it either way.
This also isn't new territory for Bitcoin. Back in 2025, Glassnode reported 97% of supply in profit during the run toward $126,000, and paired that number with the same kind of caution at the time. The shape tends to repeat, the percentage climbs, the commentary turns careful, and the market either absorbs the resulting profit-taking or it doesn't.
I'm not saying 73.6% means a drop is coming, honestly. High profit readings have sat underneath real, sustained rallies before too. Just noting the number by itself doesn't tell you much. Where it sits in that longer arc, climbing, peaking, now easing slightly, is the part actually worth paying attention to.
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