The $SPY is 0.3% off all-time highs and coiling hard. Since August every dip got bought at a higher low while resistance held flat — range now under 1%, tightest since the August peak.
Historical playbook: went back to 1950 and pulled every time the index broke out of a sub-1% range while within 1% of a record. 23 cases total.
Next 20 trading days:
87% hit a new record close
Avg return +1.2% vs +0.7% baseline
78% higher vs 62% normally
Only 9% broke back below the range
Key level: 7,799. Close above confirms breakout.
Being bearish is fine — staying bearish against the structure is the problem. For months the overnight repairs kept firing, call-buying absorbed every selloff, and the five-condition topping scorecard never got close to five. The data was there if you read it.
Historical playbook: went back to 1950 and pulled every time the index broke out of a sub-1% range while within 1% of a record. 23 cases total.
Next 20 trading days:
87% hit a new record close
Avg return +1.2% vs +0.7% baseline
78% higher vs 62% normally
Only 9% broke back below the range
Key level: 7,799. Close above confirms breakout.
Being bearish is fine — staying bearish against the structure is the problem. For months the overnight repairs kept firing, call-buying absorbed every selloff, and the five-condition topping scorecard never got close to five. The data was there if you read it.