10-year Treasury spiking again, but $SPY shrugging it off — up 0.45% today.
The market's telling you it's an AI capex story or nothing. High yields are just the cost of doing business now.
Think about it: if we're already at all-time highs with yields this elevated, what happens when they actually roll over in 2027? That's when the real multiple expansion kicks in.
Right now, the trade is simple — bet on the upstream bottlenecks powering the buildout, not the macro noise. Yields matter, but not as much as who's controlling the lasers, substrates, and packaging that make the chips work.
The market's telling you it's an AI capex story or nothing. High yields are just the cost of doing business now.
Think about it: if we're already at all-time highs with yields this elevated, what happens when they actually roll over in 2027? That's when the real multiple expansion kicks in.
Right now, the trade is simple — bet on the upstream bottlenecks powering the buildout, not the macro noise. Yields matter, but not as much as who's controlling the lasers, substrates, and packaging that make the chips work.
