At the October 3 close, Bitcoin traded at $84,765.53. Three age bands of supply have an average cost above that price:

- 6 to 12 months: 17.12% of supply, $88,943 (+4.9%)

- 12 to 18 months: 8.73%, $109,495 (+29.2%)

- 18 to 24 months: 6.09%, $88,416 (+4.3%)

Average cost is the Realized Price by age band: the average price at which each band's coins last moved.

What is not new, and what is

- At least one of these three bands has had an average cost above price on 323 of the last 364 days: every day but one since November 14, 2025.

- What changed is the short end. Coins held 1 to 6 months have had an average cost below price for 44 days in a row, the longest run in the last 12 months (51 days in total): 1 to 3 months at $68,341 (19.4% below), 3 to 6 months at $71,430 (15.7% below).

- Every band older than 2 years also has an average cost below price.

What it means

These are the only bands whose average holder is underwater: coins that last moved 6 to 24 months ago. These already count as Long-Term Holders (LTH: coins unmoved for about five months or more).

Their spending is ordinary: 272,156 BTC moved on-chain in the last 30 days, the 60th percentile of 30-day windows this year.

Limits

- Band averages hide coins on both sides of price. CryptoQuant's supply in loss is 25.09%, below the 31.94% in these bands.

- The 6 to 12 month band is only 4.9% above price. A close above $88,943 would leave only the 12 to 18 month band above price, as long as average costs hold.

Written by thechessONCHAIN