#fedoctoberratehikeoddsfallto17%
đš October Fed hike odds just collapsed to ~17% â markets are pricing a pause.
The catalyst was weak September labor just +29K payrolls, while unemployment rose to 4.2%.
That pushed expectations for another Fed hike at the October meeting sharply lower.
The macro chain is straightforward:
Weak jobs â lower hike odds â less pressure on yields â better setup for risk assets.
That puts several markets in focus:
đ $QQQ â tech could get relief if rate pressure cools.
âż $BTC â liquidity-sensitive assets may benefit from a softer Fed path.
đ„ $XAU â gold could benefit if real yields and the dollar ease.
đŠ $TLT â bonds become more attractive as tightening expectations fade.
But thereâs an important catch:
A pause is not the same as a pivot.
Reuters says a December hike remains on the table if inflation stays sticky.
So the setup is becoming clearer:
October pause = increasingly priced in.
December = still the real battleground.
#FederalReserve #Fed #bitcoin #Macro #crypto
đš October Fed hike odds just collapsed to ~17% â markets are pricing a pause.
The catalyst was weak September labor just +29K payrolls, while unemployment rose to 4.2%.
That pushed expectations for another Fed hike at the October meeting sharply lower.
The macro chain is straightforward:
Weak jobs â lower hike odds â less pressure on yields â better setup for risk assets.
That puts several markets in focus:
đ $QQQ â tech could get relief if rate pressure cools.
âż $BTC â liquidity-sensitive assets may benefit from a softer Fed path.
đ„ $XAU â gold could benefit if real yields and the dollar ease.
đŠ $TLT â bonds become more attractive as tightening expectations fade.
But thereâs an important catch:
A pause is not the same as a pivot.
Reuters says a December hike remains on the table if inflation stays sticky.
So the setup is becoming clearer:
October pause = increasingly priced in.
December = still the real battleground.
#FederalReserve #Fed #bitcoin #Macro #crypto
