U.S. debt just crossed 100% of GDP for the first time since WW2.
Last time we hit this level, we were financing a world war. This time? Peacetime spending, entitlements, and interest payments that keep climbing.
The difference: back then, rates were near zero and we grew our way out. Now we're paying 4-5% on $36 trillion while growth is slowing.
Markets haven't panicked yet, but this changes the math on everything—Fed policy, dollar strength, inflation risk, and how long we can keep running deficits without consequences.
Historically, debt-to-GDP above 100% starts limiting options. Can't cut rates as freely. Can't stimulate as easily. And bond vigilantes eventually show up.
Not saying the sky is falling tomorrow. But this is the kind of structural shift that plays out over years and reshapes the entire investment landscape.
Watch the 10-year yield. Watch the dollar. And watch what happens when the next recession forces more borrowing on top of this pile.
Last time we hit this level, we were financing a world war. This time? Peacetime spending, entitlements, and interest payments that keep climbing.
The difference: back then, rates were near zero and we grew our way out. Now we're paying 4-5% on $36 trillion while growth is slowing.
Markets haven't panicked yet, but this changes the math on everything—Fed policy, dollar strength, inflation risk, and how long we can keep running deficits without consequences.
Historically, debt-to-GDP above 100% starts limiting options. Can't cut rates as freely. Can't stimulate as easily. And bond vigilantes eventually show up.
Not saying the sky is falling tomorrow. But this is the kind of structural shift that plays out over years and reshapes the entire investment landscape.
Watch the 10-year yield. Watch the dollar. And watch what happens when the next recession forces more borrowing on top of this pile.
