$BTC $ETH #nfpwatch
Following up on the jobs report story. The shift in Fed expectations we talked about has now solidified into real numbers. Both Polymarket and CME FedWatch now show roughly an 83% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its October 28 meeting, with just a 17-18% chance of another hike.
That's a massive swing from where things stood just last week. After September's hike under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, odds of a second back-to-back hike had climbed to 57.6%, and Fed Governor Michael Barr had sounded hawkish, saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." The weak NFP print (29,000 vs 90,000 expected) flipped that narrative fast.
The next catalysts to watch are core PCE and September's core CPI data, both landing before the October 28 decision. If inflation keeps cooling, the "no change" case gets even stronger. A hot print could flip the odds again.
For traders, if the Fed genuinely pauses here, that's usually a supportive signal for risk assets like BTC and ETH, since it means the tightening cycle is losing momentum. Still just a prediction though, not confirmed until the actual decision lands.
#Fed #Macro
Following up on the jobs report story. The shift in Fed expectations we talked about has now solidified into real numbers. Both Polymarket and CME FedWatch now show roughly an 83% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its October 28 meeting, with just a 17-18% chance of another hike.
That's a massive swing from where things stood just last week. After September's hike under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, odds of a second back-to-back hike had climbed to 57.6%, and Fed Governor Michael Barr had sounded hawkish, saying "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed." The weak NFP print (29,000 vs 90,000 expected) flipped that narrative fast.
The next catalysts to watch are core PCE and September's core CPI data, both landing before the October 28 decision. If inflation keeps cooling, the "no change" case gets even stronger. A hot print could flip the odds again.
For traders, if the Fed genuinely pauses here, that's usually a supportive signal for risk assets like BTC and ETH, since it means the tightening cycle is losing momentum. Still just a prediction though, not confirmed until the actual decision lands.
#Fed #Macro
