My initial read on why $MU isn't more green is that Q4 was still heavily price driven with DRAM revenue up 27% while bits only grew mid single digits and NAND up 42% with ~30% pricing so the market is still treating these earnings like a peak that fades once supply catches up.
What changed this quarter is management gave us a lot more visibility into why that may not happen anytime soon with 75%+ of next year’s output already committed, SCAs stretching into 2031, margins rising after Q1 and meaningful new cleanroom capacity still not arriving until late 2028.
If Micron can sustain something around $200 of forward EPS and market eventually decide that setup deserves even 10x instead of 6x then you're suddenly looking at $2,000 stock without needing an aggressive multiple.
What changed this quarter is management gave us a lot more visibility into why that may not happen anytime soon with 75%+ of next year’s output already committed, SCAs stretching into 2031, margins rising after Q1 and meaningful new cleanroom capacity still not arriving until late 2028.
If Micron can sustain something around $200 of forward EPS and market eventually decide that setup deserves even 10x instead of 6x then you're suddenly looking at $2,000 stock without needing an aggressive multiple.