đš $MU Q4 EARNINGS: HEREâS MY BULL CASE
Iâm bullish on MU into/after earnings, but my thesis isnât simply âAI is booming.â
Hereâs what Iâm watching:
đ 1. $50B revenue target Micron guided Q4 revenue to $50B ± $1B. That would be a huge step up from the prior quarterâs $33.5B guidance. If Micron beats this and raises the next-quarter outlook, I think the market will focus on the durability of the cycle.
đ° 2. 86% gross margin is the key Micron is already guiding for approximately 86% gross margin. Management said this outlook assumes a moderation in the rate of price increases, so holding or exceeding 86% would be an important signal that pricing + product mix are still extremely strong.
đ€ 3. HBM is becoming a bigger part of the story Micron says HBM4 is already in high-volume shipments for its lead customer, with qualification samples sent to multiple other customers. That gives MU exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout beyond traditional memory demand.
đ„ 4. The real catalyst = guidance For me, the biggest number tonight isnât just EPS.
I want to see: âą Revenue above/around $50B
âą Gross margin â„86%
âą Strong HBM commentary
âą Evidence that pricing remains firm
âą Constructive FY2027 outlook
If those pieces line up, my bullish thesis gets stronger.
Iâm not chasing the first earnings candle. Iâd rather see the numbers, guidance and price action confirm the thesis before adding risk.
Is the memory super cycle still in the early innings, or are we getting close to peak margins? đ
#EarningsSeason #MU #Semiconductors
Iâm bullish on MU into/after earnings, but my thesis isnât simply âAI is booming.â
Hereâs what Iâm watching:
đ 1. $50B revenue target Micron guided Q4 revenue to $50B ± $1B. That would be a huge step up from the prior quarterâs $33.5B guidance. If Micron beats this and raises the next-quarter outlook, I think the market will focus on the durability of the cycle.
đ° 2. 86% gross margin is the key Micron is already guiding for approximately 86% gross margin. Management said this outlook assumes a moderation in the rate of price increases, so holding or exceeding 86% would be an important signal that pricing + product mix are still extremely strong.
đ€ 3. HBM is becoming a bigger part of the story Micron says HBM4 is already in high-volume shipments for its lead customer, with qualification samples sent to multiple other customers. That gives MU exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout beyond traditional memory demand.
đ„ 4. The real catalyst = guidance For me, the biggest number tonight isnât just EPS.
I want to see: âą Revenue above/around $50B
âą Gross margin â„86%
âą Strong HBM commentary
âą Evidence that pricing remains firm
âą Constructive FY2027 outlook
If those pieces line up, my bullish thesis gets stronger.
Iâm not chasing the first earnings candle. Iâd rather see the numbers, guidance and price action confirm the thesis before adding risk.
Is the memory super cycle still in the early innings, or are we getting close to peak margins? đ
#EarningsSeason #MU #Semiconductors