Want to know if food inflation is sticky? Don't wait for the CPI print. Look at the farm.
Diesel above $6.50/gal. Fertilizer and fuel costs surging on Iran war backdrop. Tariffs made equipment pricier. These are production costs that feed straight into every crop price and eventually into food on the shelf.
Then add supply disruption. ICE activity around major Kansas beef plants delayed shifts and cut production. Cattle groups say it plainly: that means higher beef prices. Labor hits at processing chokepoints tighten supply fast.
This is the ground-level version of the story we've tracked all month. The commodity complex is running hot, and here's why it stays hot: the input costs underneath are not easing.
Goolsbee just retired the word transitory. Persistent supply-cost pressure at the source is exactly what he's now assuming won't quickly reverse.
Everyone is pricing the oil headline. The farm is pricing diesel, fertilizer, labor, and beef all at once. Input costs lead. The number the Fed watches follows.
$SPY $QQQ
Diesel above $6.50/gal. Fertilizer and fuel costs surging on Iran war backdrop. Tariffs made equipment pricier. These are production costs that feed straight into every crop price and eventually into food on the shelf.
Then add supply disruption. ICE activity around major Kansas beef plants delayed shifts and cut production. Cattle groups say it plainly: that means higher beef prices. Labor hits at processing chokepoints tighten supply fast.
This is the ground-level version of the story we've tracked all month. The commodity complex is running hot, and here's why it stays hot: the input costs underneath are not easing.
Goolsbee just retired the word transitory. Persistent supply-cost pressure at the source is exactly what he's now assuming won't quickly reverse.
Everyone is pricing the oil headline. The farm is pricing diesel, fertilizer, labor, and beef all at once. Input costs lead. The number the Fed watches follows.
$SPY $QQQ
