$ETH
Tom Lee’s just put forward his actual case for why inflation might drop without any new hikes, innit?
'If inflation starts coming down, it ain't gonna be 'cause of them Fed hikes from last week. It’s all down to the policy that’s already sitting there
He points out three specific bits:
A change in PCE methodology on September 30th. That on its own could knock 20 to 40 basis points off the year-on-year rate
Tariff effects fading away over time
Flash-memory prices settling back down
Here’s the oil math, right: if crude stays around a hundred bucks, it stops adding to inflation in six months’ time. Simply 'cause the year-on-year comparison flattens out
$MU
For inflation to actually speed up instead, Lee says three things would have to happen: house prices shoot right up, oil pushes towards 150, and memory prices take another big jump
If none of that pops up, lower inflation could eventually let the Fed ease off on all that hawkish chat
$BZ
#Fed #TomLee #USMarketUpdate
Tom Lee’s just put forward his actual case for why inflation might drop without any new hikes, innit?
'If inflation starts coming down, it ain't gonna be 'cause of them Fed hikes from last week. It’s all down to the policy that’s already sitting there
He points out three specific bits:
A change in PCE methodology on September 30th. That on its own could knock 20 to 40 basis points off the year-on-year rate
Tariff effects fading away over time
Flash-memory prices settling back down
Here’s the oil math, right: if crude stays around a hundred bucks, it stops adding to inflation in six months’ time. Simply 'cause the year-on-year comparison flattens out
$MU
For inflation to actually speed up instead, Lee says three things would have to happen: house prices shoot right up, oil pushes towards 150, and memory prices take another big jump
If none of that pops up, lower inflation could eventually let the Fed ease off on all that hawkish chat
$BZ
#Fed #TomLee #USMarketUpdate
