Galaxy Research said the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) this week issued guidance on “Mention Markets,” a type of prediction market tied to personal statements, event appearances, and interactions. According to Odaily, the CFTC’s Market Oversight Division said these markets should be presumed susceptible to manipulation and asked exchanges to assess four areas: independent constraints on the person involved, risks of outside pressure, independent verification and public oversight, and trading rules and monitoring measures.

Galaxy Research said the guidance is not a binding rule and does not ban exchanges from listing mention markets. It added that even if exchanges meet the stated standards, manipulation risks may remain when individuals can intentionally trigger market outcomes without financial interest, and that the First Amendment limits regulators’ ability to impose prior restraints on personal speech.