U.S. Treasury market volatility has risen sharply in recent days, while Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have remained relatively calm. According to Odaily, the MOVE index, which measures expected volatility in Treasuries, climbed from about 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, its highest level since March, when it briefly reached 199.

By contrast, Volmex's 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index, BVIV, is around 37, near this year's low of 35, while the Cboe VIX, which tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500, is close to this year's low of 14. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5.2% on Thursday before easing to 5.163%.

Data showed the 20-day correlation coefficient between the VIX and MOVE fell to -0.06, turning negative for the first time since April 2024. The correlation between BVIV and MOVE was -0.37, near a recent low. Analysts said rising Treasury volatility usually points to tighter financial conditions, but Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have not yet reflected the same level of volatility risk seen in the bond market.