*Base case now:* *One more hike to 4-4.25% at Oct 27 meeting, then pause — end of tightening campaign* — projection hinges on Brent dropping to $85 by Dec $BROCCOLI714 $NOM $LSK
- *Sep 24 update from GS Asset Management:* *"We do NOT expect Fed to enter sustained rate hike cycle"* — *reasons: tariff + energy price pressures may ease, economy shows little sign overheating, inflation expectations anchored*
- *Dot plot vs market:* Fed dot shows 1 more hike this year, *money markets pricing 37bps cumulative over 2 remaining meetings (Nov 5, Dec 10)* per LSEG
- *What Kaplan said:* *markets pricing more tightening than economy warrants — housing, autos, lower-income sales already sluggish under current rates — labor "low fire, low hire" not overheating* — prefers *skip October, look again December*
So not "unlikely additional hikes" — *Goldman says 1 more likely in Oct then done*, and *no sustained cycle*. Your "cooling inflation + stronger labor" part is backwards — Goldman says labor resilient but NOT overheating, which is why they don't need sustained hikes.
*BREAKING 🚨 Goldman Sep 23-24: Fed to hike once more Oct 27 to 4-4.25% then pause — unlikely sustained hike cycle 🚀 Tariff/energy pressures easing no overheating expectations anchored — dot shows 1 more 2026 money mkts 37bps priced — Kaplan: skip Oct if possible low-fire low-hire labor ⚡*#BinanceWillListHyperliquid(HYPE) #FedOctoberRateHikeOddsRiseTo69.7% #US30YearYieldHighestSince2004 #USWeighsPromotingDollarStablecoinsAbroad
- *Sep 24 update from GS Asset Management:* *"We do NOT expect Fed to enter sustained rate hike cycle"* — *reasons: tariff + energy price pressures may ease, economy shows little sign overheating, inflation expectations anchored*
- *Dot plot vs market:* Fed dot shows 1 more hike this year, *money markets pricing 37bps cumulative over 2 remaining meetings (Nov 5, Dec 10)* per LSEG
- *What Kaplan said:* *markets pricing more tightening than economy warrants — housing, autos, lower-income sales already sluggish under current rates — labor "low fire, low hire" not overheating* — prefers *skip October, look again December*
So not "unlikely additional hikes" — *Goldman says 1 more likely in Oct then done*, and *no sustained cycle*. Your "cooling inflation + stronger labor" part is backwards — Goldman says labor resilient but NOT overheating, which is why they don't need sustained hikes.
*BREAKING 🚨 Goldman Sep 23-24: Fed to hike once more Oct 27 to 4-4.25% then pause — unlikely sustained hike cycle 🚀 Tariff/energy pressures easing no overheating expectations anchored — dot shows 1 more 2026 money mkts 37bps priced — Kaplan: skip Oct if possible low-fire low-hire labor ⚡*#BinanceWillListHyperliquid(HYPE) #FedOctoberRateHikeOddsRiseTo69.7% #US30YearYieldHighestSince2004 #USWeighsPromotingDollarStablecoinsAbroad
