quarter point. took the range up to 3.75–4%. first time they’ve raised since 2023. unanimous, no drama in the vote.
economy’s still chugging along. people are spending, companies are investing, jobs aren’t falling off a cliff. unemployment’s just sitting there. the sticky part is inflation. still higher than they want, so they figured a little tightening might help get it back to 2% sooner rather than later.
the dots were the real tell. most of them now expect one more hike before the year ends. median path sits at 4.1% by december and stays there through next year. that’s a clearer “we’re not finished” message than they were putting out in june.
next meeting’s end of october. markets are mostly looking past it and thinking december’s the more likely spot for another move, but it’ll come down to whatever the inflation prints look like between now and then. nothing’s locked. they’re just saying inflation’s still the bigger headache right now and they’re willing to push a little more if they have to.
#FedRateWatch
economy’s still chugging along. people are spending, companies are investing, jobs aren’t falling off a cliff. unemployment’s just sitting there. the sticky part is inflation. still higher than they want, so they figured a little tightening might help get it back to 2% sooner rather than later.
the dots were the real tell. most of them now expect one more hike before the year ends. median path sits at 4.1% by december and stays there through next year. that’s a clearer “we’re not finished” message than they were putting out in june.
next meeting’s end of october. markets are mostly looking past it and thinking december’s the more likely spot for another move, but it’ll come down to whatever the inflation prints look like between now and then. nothing’s locked. they’re just saying inflation’s still the bigger headache right now and they’re willing to push a little more if they have to.
#FedRateWatch
