Friday's triple witching closed green (+0.17%) for the first time in three years — structure beat the calendar, which had called for down.
The monthly drain did its job. Gamma flipped from -$456M to +$253M. The 7,550 strike, which carried -$189M Thursday (heaviest accelerator on record here), eased to -$52M. The 7,500 went from -$165M to -$97M. The chain is 73% lighter.
Flip levels cleaned from 23 to 5. Eight of ten volume strikes were calls at 7,650 to 7,700.
This is the fifth time the same mechanic has played out: negative regime builds, expiration clears it, structure flips. July FOMC into July 31 OPEX. August thinning into August 20. September into Friday's witching.
The local profile hasn't fully cleared. Spot at 7,651 sits on -$60M. First positive strike is 25 points up at 7,675. Chain below is lighter but present.
Magnets above are the strongest in weeks: 7,800 at +$94M, 7,900 at +$64M, 8,000 at +$145M.
One caution: the week after September witching has averaged -0.73% over the last decade — the only witching with a negative following week. Structure says positive. Calendar says otherwise, and it was wrong on Friday.
Range Monday: 7,600 to 7,725.
$SPY $QQQ $SPX
The monthly drain did its job. Gamma flipped from -$456M to +$253M. The 7,550 strike, which carried -$189M Thursday (heaviest accelerator on record here), eased to -$52M. The 7,500 went from -$165M to -$97M. The chain is 73% lighter.
Flip levels cleaned from 23 to 5. Eight of ten volume strikes were calls at 7,650 to 7,700.
This is the fifth time the same mechanic has played out: negative regime builds, expiration clears it, structure flips. July FOMC into July 31 OPEX. August thinning into August 20. September into Friday's witching.
The local profile hasn't fully cleared. Spot at 7,651 sits on -$60M. First positive strike is 25 points up at 7,675. Chain below is lighter but present.
Magnets above are the strongest in weeks: 7,800 at +$94M, 7,900 at +$64M, 8,000 at +$145M.
One caution: the week after September witching has averaged -0.73% over the last decade — the only witching with a negative following week. Structure says positive. Calendar says otherwise, and it was wrong on Friday.
Range Monday: 7,600 to 7,725.
$SPY $QQQ $SPX
