Goldman Sachs anticipe une hausse de la Fed en octobre, Bitcoin (BTC) stable près de 76 000 $

COINOTAG · 2026-09-17T11:20:50.000Z

• Goldman Sachs prévoit une hausse de 25 points de base du taux de la Fed lors de la réunion du FOMC d’octobre. • 16 des 18 responsables du FOMC ont projeté au moins une hausse supplémentaire en 2026, selon le dot plot. • La Fed a relevé son estimation du taux neutre de 3,06 % à 3,25 %. Goldman Sachs devient plus ferme Goldman Sachs s’attend désormais à ce que la Réserve fédérale procède à une nouvelle hausse de 25 points de base lors de la réunion du FOMC d’octobre, abandonnant ainsi son avis précédent selon lequel le mouvement de septembre serait la dernière hausse du cycle. La banque centrale américaine a relevé sa fourchette cible pour le taux des fonds fédéraux à 3,75 %–4,00 % après l’augmentation de 25 points de base de la semaine dernière, et les économistes de la banque d’investissement ont conclu, dans une note de recherche datée du 17 septembre, que des hausses consécutives constituent l’étape logique suivante si la Fed est sérieuse à l’idée de ramener l’inflation à son objectif de 2 %. L’économiste de Goldman, David Mericle, a attribué le changement de prévision à trois facteurs issus de la réunion de septembre : le dot plot, dans lequel 16 des 18 responsables ont projeté au moins une hausse supplémentaire en 2026 ; le caractère unanime de la décision sur les taux ; et les propos tenus par le président Kevin Warsh lors de sa conférence de presse. Les responsables ont aussi relevé leur estimation du taux neutre — le niveau théorique qui ne freine ni ne stimule l’économie — de 3,06 % à 3,25 %. Fait notable, Warsh a présenté la hausse moins comme l’ouverture d’une campagne de resserrement délibérée et davantage comme la suppression d’une partie de l’accommodation monétaire encore en place, une formulation lue comme un signal indiquant que les taux ne se situent pas encore dans une zone suffisamment restrictive.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the October FOMC meeting.
• 16 of 18 FOMC officials projected at least one more hike in 2026 per the dot plot.
• The Fed raised its neutral rate estimate from 3.06% to 3.25%.
Goldman Sachs Turns Hawkish
Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver another 25-basis-point rate increase at the October FOMC meeting, abandoning its earlier view that September's move would be the final hike of the cycle. The US central bank lifted its federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00% with last week's 25-basis-point increase, and the investment bank's economists concluded in a research note dated September 17 that back-to-back increases are the logical next step if the Fed is serious about returning inflation to its 2% target. Goldman economist David Mericle attributed the forecast change to three factors from the September meeting: the dot plot, in which 16 of 18 officials projected at least one additional hike in 2026; the unanimous character of the rate decision; and Chair Kevin Warsh's press-conference language. Policymakers also raised their estimate of the neutral rate — the theoretical level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy — from 3.06% to 3.25%. Notably, Warsh framed the hike less as the opening of a deliberate tightening campaign and more as the removal of a portion of remaining policy accommodation, a wording read as signaling that rates have not yet reached sufficiently restrictive territory.
Markets Price October at a Coin Flip
Goldman is running ahead of its Wall Street peers on timing. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley both place the next increase in December, whereas Goldman argues that two consecutive hikes is the natural sequence given the Fed's stated policy direction. Rate futures compiled by CME FedWatch currently assign roughly a 50% probability to an additional 25-basis-point move at the October session — real disagreement about the next step remains. One complicating variable is the political calendar: the October FOMC falls only about a week before the US midterm elections, and Kay Haigh, a director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, has suggested that proximity could push the Fed to hold in October. For crypto, the repricing has so far been absorbed without stress. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $76,400 as of the latest market snapshot, up roughly 0.6% over the past 24 hours, and leverage conditions in perpetual futures imply traders see the October outcome as a near coin flip rather than a certainty. Dollar liquidity backing Circle-issued stablecoins has remained stable as rate expectations shifted, while systematic and AI trading bot strategies tracking Fed odds have adjusted positioning without triggering broader volatility.
Bitcoin Steady Near $76K
COINOTAG's own aggregate data puts the market squarely on the fence: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 50/100 (Neutral), Bitcoin accounts for 68.1% of our tracked market, and the COINOTAG-tracked market cap stands near $2.25 trillion. In short, a hawkish repricing is landing on an already-neutral crypto tape.