The day the market was waiting for has arrived.
Anyone who follows my analyses knows that my concern has never been only whether the Fed would or wouldn’t raise rates by 25 bps. With the market pricing in more than a 90% chance of this move, the most important question now is: what comes next?
August’s core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, and rate expectations have shifted. Major institutions, like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, have started working with a tougher outlook for monetary policy.
When institutions of that size reprice rates, we’re not just talking about inflation. We’re talking about a move that could trigger a rebalancing of large portfolios.
If U.S. Treasuries start delivering higher returns, institutional money recalculates where it’s worth taking risk. That affects equities, technology, and naturally it reaches Bitcoin and the crypto market.
Even if the Fed delivers the expected 25 bps, a hike that’s already priced in can still provide a breather for the market—especially if Kevin Warsh’s communication comes in less aggressive. But a green candle doesn’t fixthe macro picture.
My directional bias for Bitcoin remains one of correction. It’s a read I’ve been building since last year, and so far I see no technical or macro reason to abandon it.
And there’s another important point: the race for reserves. We’re seeing gold taking center stage, and Bitcoin is being discussed more and more in that context. When the search for assets linked to wealth preservation grows, something big…
U.S. debt remains relevant. We have high oil prices, geopolitical risks, stubborn inflation, and rates pressuring financial conditions. Those are pieces that, together, tell a much bigger story.
For me, Bitcoin still lacks something fundamental: accumulation.
REMEMBER: The market doesn’t rise in a straight line, and major moves have to be built before they’re delivered.
#FedRateWatch #BTC #Bitcoin #thaitraderoficial
Anyone who follows my analyses knows that my concern has never been only whether the Fed would or wouldn’t raise rates by 25 bps. With the market pricing in more than a 90% chance of this move, the most important question now is: what comes next?
August’s core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, and rate expectations have shifted. Major institutions, like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan, have started working with a tougher outlook for monetary policy.
When institutions of that size reprice rates, we’re not just talking about inflation. We’re talking about a move that could trigger a rebalancing of large portfolios.
If U.S. Treasuries start delivering higher returns, institutional money recalculates where it’s worth taking risk. That affects equities, technology, and naturally it reaches Bitcoin and the crypto market.
Even if the Fed delivers the expected 25 bps, a hike that’s already priced in can still provide a breather for the market—especially if Kevin Warsh’s communication comes in less aggressive. But a green candle doesn’t fixthe macro picture.
My directional bias for Bitcoin remains one of correction. It’s a read I’ve been building since last year, and so far I see no technical or macro reason to abandon it.
And there’s another important point: the race for reserves. We’re seeing gold taking center stage, and Bitcoin is being discussed more and more in that context. When the search for assets linked to wealth preservation grows, something big…
U.S. debt remains relevant. We have high oil prices, geopolitical risks, stubborn inflation, and rates pressuring financial conditions. Those are pieces that, together, tell a much bigger story.
For me, Bitcoin still lacks something fundamental: accumulation.
REMEMBER: The market doesn’t rise in a straight line, and major moves have to be built before they’re delivered.
#FedRateWatch #BTC #Bitcoin #thaitraderoficial