THE U.S. GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS 6 DAYS AWAY — AND THE SETUP FEELS FAMILIAR
Let’s speak plainly.
This no longer feels like political theater.
In six days, the U.S. government could shut down. We’ve been here before — and the last time it happened, gold and silver quietly pushed toward all-time highs while most people were still focused on the headlines.
If you’re holding stocks, crypto, bonds, or even cash, it’s worth understanding what a shutdown actually does to markets.
The biggest risk isn’t panic.
It’s uncertainty.
A shutdown doesn’t just pause government services.
It shuts off the data.
No CPI releases.
No jobs reports.
No balance-sheet updates.
That creates a data blackout.
When the Fed loses visibility, models stop working and decisions get delayed. Markets can absorb bad news. What they struggle with is operating blind.
Here’s what tends to build quietly during a shutdown:
Uncertainty compounds
Without fresh data, risk gets repriced defensively.
Credit stress creeps in
Shutdowns raise downgrade risk, especially when the system is already stretched. Large players don’t wait — they de-risk early.
Liquidity tightens
With the RRP buffer thin, dealers holding cash can quickly strain funding markets.
Growth takes a hit
Each week of shutdown trims roughly 0.2% off GDP. In a slowing economy, that matters.
The key point to remember:
Money doesn’t disappear in moments like this.
It moves.
First into cash.
Then into safety.
Only later back into risk.
That transition is rarely smooth.
This isn’t meant to scare anyone. It’s simply how these situations tend to unfold, based on experience. I’ll keep watching closely and sharing updates as this develops — and when adjustments are needed, I’ll be transparent about them.
These moments rarely feel dramatic at the start.
They only feel obvious once they’re already behind us.
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