bitcoin

For years, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle felt almost predictable. Each halving reduced miner rewards, tightened supply, and historically helped spark a bull run that peaked about 12 to 18 months later.
For over a decade, the rhythm felt almost mechanical.
2012 halving → 2013 peak
2016 halving → 2017 peak
2020 halving → 2021 peak
Then came April 2024. Miner rewards dropped to 3.125 BTC, and expectations were clear: strong rally, euphoric top, then a cooldown.
Here is a long-term view of Bitcoin's price action (logarithmic scale), showing historical halving cycles and the path through 2024–2026:

Bitcoin did deliver, climbing to roughly $126K in October 2025.right on schedule. Still, momentum faded faster than anticipated.
By mid-February 2026, Bitcoin trades around $69,000–$70,800, after briefly falling below $61,000. That marks a 45–50 percent decline from the peak. Significant, but still less severe than past corrections that often exceeded 70 percent.
▪️Why the Cycle Looks Different Now
Several structural changes are reshaping Bitcoin’s behavior.
Institutional flows dominate.
Since spot ETFs launched in 2024, fund inflows frequently outweigh daily miner supply, making capital movement a stronger price driver than halving scarcity.
Macro trends matter more.
Bitcoin increasingly reacts to interest rates, liquidity, and overall risk sentiment, behaving more like a global macro asset.
A larger market needs bigger money.
At trillion-dollar scale, supply cuts alone no longer trigger explosive rallies.
Here is a comparison chart overlaying the current post-2024 halving cycle against previous cycles (adjusted for time since halving):

▪️2026 Outlook: Three Possible Paths
Bullish: Some expect an extended cycle with targets between $150,000 and $250,000, driven by ETF demand, corporate adoption, and potential rate cuts.
Neutral: Others see Bitcoin maturing into “hard money,” trading roughly between $75,000 and $150,000 with slower, steadier growth.
Bearish: A deeper correction toward $50,000–$60,000 remains possible if macro
Here is a closer look at the 2025 peak and the 2026 correction so far:

▪️Bottom Line
The four-year cycle is probably not dead. But it is no longer the metronome controlling the entire market.
Bitcoin is evolving into a global macro asset, shaped more by institutional capital than predictable supply shocks.
And here is the practical takeaway many wish they understood earlier:
Do not anchor your strategy to old market structures.
Anchor it to where capital is moving next.
#bitcoin

Bitcoin has always respected one rule more than any narrative: long-term structure matters most during macro stress.
Looking at the weekly chart, $BTC is still trading inside a long-term ascending channel that has guided price through multiple cycles.
Every major expansion phase has respected this structure, while every deep correction has tested its lower boundaries.
One level stands out historically and structurally: the 200-week moving average (200W MA).
Why the 200W MA matters
The 200W MA has acted as Bitcoin’s cycle floor during bear markets:
In 2018, BTC bottomed near it.In 2022, BTC briefly broke below it, triggering panic but also marking a generational accumulation zone.
If Bitcoin loses the 200W MA again, history suggests we should not ignore what comes next.
The $38,000 confluence
From the chart, $38,000 is not just a random number:
It aligns with the lower bound of the long-term channelIt overlaps with a key Fibonacci retracement zoneIt sits near prior high-volume consolidation areas
In 2022, when BTC lost the 200W MA, price didn’t collapse immediately but once structure broke, downside momentum accelerated. That same structural risk exists again if the level fails.
This doesn’t mean $38,000 must be reached but if the 200W MA breaks, this becomes a high-probability area of interest, not a prediction.
Market context matters
What makes this cycle different is that Bitcoin previously made new highs during a contracting macro environment, largely driven by ETFs and institutional access.
Now, the market is at a crossroads:
Either BTC holds long-term structure and confirms resilienceOr it repeats history, where structural breaks force price to seek deeper liquidity zones before the next expansion
Understanding this distinction is critical for risk management not just for traders, but for long-term holders as well.
This is not about fear it’s about preparation.
The 200W MA is the line between long-term confidence and structural stress
$38,000 is a level the market will react to if that line breaks
Structure breaks first narratives come later
If Bitcoin revisits the 200W MA, do you see it as a warning sign or a long-term opportunity?
#BTC #bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis

A trip to $60,000 and back before coffee.

Bitcoin $BTC  spent the end of last week doing what it does best: reminding traders that fire-breathing dragons aren’t in fairytales only.

After a sharp drop to $60,033 on Thursday torched thousands of long positions, the world’s largest cryptocurrency bounced hard. By Friday, it had clawed its way back above $70,000. Still, that dip was the orange coin’s lowest level since October 2024 and roughly 52% below last year’s record of $126,000.

By Monday morning, Bitcoin looked almost calm. It hovered around $70,700, barely changed on the day. The contrast with last week’s price action felt dramatic. Bitcoin rarely travels in straight lines, and this was another reminder.

🤔 Buy the Dip or Declare It Gone?

As always, opinions split fast. Some traders rushed to declare Bitcoin’s demise (for the 463th time – there’s a website for that). Others quietly loaded up, calling the move a classic paper-hands shakeout.

Markets, by nature, lean optimistic. The real question is whether optimism has enough fuel to pull Bitcoin out of its recent slump and into a renewed upside phase. The bounce has been impressive, an 18% upswing, but conviction remains fragile.

🌪️ Volatility Is a Feature, Not a Bug

Extreme volatility comes with the territory. Bitcoin’s slide from a $126,000 peak in October arrived despite a crypto-friendly White House and accelerating institutional adoption.

For some investors, that raised uncomfortable questions about Bitcoin’s role during periods of geopolitical stress.

Digital gold? Perhaps. Perfect hedge? That debate remains open.

🧊 The Market Finds Its Feet, Carefully

The broader crypto market has stabilized, though nerves remain close to the surface and Bitcoin still commands the lion’s share, according to the dominance chart. Traders describe the tone as cautious rather than confident. Or every analyst’s favorite expression: cautious optimism.

One level stands out on everyone’s chart. The $60,000 threshold has emerged as the primary near-term support. It marked the floor of last week’s selloff and remains the line bulls prefer not to revisit anytime soon.

On the upside, $75,000 carries symbolic weight. A sustained break above that zone would strengthen the case that the worst of the bear phase has passed and that buyers are regaining control.

📈 Institutions Quietly Step Back In

While price action grabbed headlines, flows told a quieter story. US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $221 million in inflows on February 6, suggesting that some investors viewed the selloff as an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

Institutional participation tends to move slowly and deliberately. These flows do not guarantee higher prices, but they add some confidence during moments of stress. For a market built on confidence, that matters.

🧮 The Levels That Matter Now

If $BTC is serious about $70,000, attention turns to a handful of technical levels that traders are watching closely.

But before that, let’s talk about the 200-week moving average near $58,000, a level Bitcoin respected during the recent dip. Holding above it keeps the longer-term structure intact.

Next sits the $73,000 to $75,000 zone, an area packed with prior support and resistance. Clearing it convincingly would signal momentum shifting back toward the bulls.

Beyond that, the path opens toward $81,000, a level that could act as the next magnet if sentiment continues to improve.

Again, that is if the OG coin manages to reel itself out of the sub-$70,000 area. The bounce from $60,000 reminded traders that sharp selloffs often attract bargain hunters and dip scoopers.

Off to you: So where do you stand right now? Are you holding your Bitcoin, exploring alternatives, or watching from the sidelines? Share how you are navigating this market in the comments.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

#bitcoin doesn’t move randomly.
It repeats behavior; just at different prices.

When you zoom out and compare the previous cycle to the current one, the structure is almost identical.

Let’s break it down 👇

📈 Phase 1: Higher High
Both cycles started the same way.
A strong bullish expansion that convinced everyone the trend would last forever.

🐂 Momentum was strong. Sentiment was euphoric.

🔻 Phase 2: Structural Break
After the higher high, price failed to continue.
Support zones broke. Momentum shifted.

🧱 Phase 3: Weekly Low Reaction
In both cycles, Bitcoin found a major weekly low.
Buyers stepped in. Hope returned.

This is where most traders got confused... thinking the worst was over.

⏸️ Phase 4: Range
This is where we are now.

Price is no longer trending.
It’s digesting the prior move inside a wide range.

Volatility increases. Direction disappears.
Traders get chopped. Investors get tested.

This phase is not about speed, it’s about patience.

💡 Key Insight
Phase 4 is not bearish.
But it’s also not bullish.

It’s a transition phase... where weak hands exit, strong hands accumulate, and the next big move is quietly prepared.

The same movie.
Different year. Different price.

🤔 Question:
Do you think this range resolves the same way as the last cycle… or does Bitcoin surprise everyone this time?

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.

📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
#BTC #BTCVSGOLD #TrendingTopic
$BTC

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached (almost) its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week fastest than any other Bear Cycle before. At the same time, its 1W LMACD hit the same symmetrical level (blue) it did every time BTC completed the 1st Stage of the Cycle. Especially in the case of the (previous) 2022 Bear Cycle, it was around the same time the price came close to the 1W MA200 as well.
As this chart shows, the 4-year Cycle bottom occurs around when the 1W LMACD makes a Bullish Cross after its hits -0.21. We are still far from that. But what past Bear Cycles show is that when the 1W LMACD has hit the current level, Bitcoin takes at best the same amount of time to bottom as it did from the start of the Bear Cycle to the moment the LMACD hit the current level (blue Support). That was particularly the case during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle (was 27 weeks from High to LMACD contact, and another 27 weeks until the Cycle bottomed). The two Bear Cycles before it, bottomed in less time.
As a result, given that last week completed 17 weeks from the Cycle Top up until the LMACD contact, the Cycle could bottom in the next 17 weeks (based on that model). This suggests the first week of June 2026, while the 4-year Cycle suggests mid-September. So what do you think is more likely to happen? Could that be BTC's shortest Bear Cycle ever?
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin price forecasts still favor lower macro lows as traders brace for US inflation data and renewed Japan-driven currency volatility.
Bitcoin 
$BTC $68,879 starts the second week of February still on the defensive after last week’s sharp drawdown, with traders increasingly eyeing a deeper retracement toward $60,000 — and even $50,000 — before a durable macro bottom forms.

Market forecasts agree that Bitcoin price action has not yet put in a reliable long-term bottom.CPI week comes as markets lose faith in Fed rate cuts in March.US dollar strength begins to fade as analysts eye a potential rerun of 2021 for Bitcoin-dollar correlation.Japan’s election turns heads, with analysis seeing a weaker yen and crypto headwinds to come.Bitcoin miners send large amounts to exchanges as the dust settles on the snap downside.

BTC price expected to attempt $60,000 retest
Bitcoin continues to trade above $70,000 as the week gets underway, but traders are anything but bullish on the short-term BTC price outlook.
Data from TradingView shows a lack of volatility around the weekly close, with BTC/USD staying around 20% higher versus its 15-month lows from last week.

In an X thread covering lower time frames, trader CrypNuevo warned that the current relief may end up as a manipulative move to liquidate late short positions.
“The intention to push price up first would be to hit the short liquidations that exist between $72k-$77k mainly. But this move is just a guess,” he wrote. 
“What we're really anticipating here is the long wick getting filled at least 50% of it in the next weekly candles.”

CrypNuevo implied that the lows could see at least a partial retest in the short term.
“It could be an immediate wick-fill. But in the case of having a move up first, then it could probably take around 5-8 weekly candles to get filled,” he forecast. 
At the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on a broad consensus that price would make new macro lows in the future — and that these could take BTC/USD to $50,000 or lower.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile considered less exciting BTC price action to come next.
“After such a volatile few weeks, price will attempt to start ranging at some point. With this recent spike in volatility and big retrace yesterday, there's a good chance we are hitting that point about now,” he told X followers Sunday. 
“Would expect volatility to slowly come off a bit again, a range to be formed and from there on out we can reassess and look for opportunities.”
CPI due as Fed policy nerves emerge
The macro focus is back on US inflation data this week as wild gyrations in precious metals settle.
The January print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Friday, forms the highlight and will follow various US employment data releases.
“Earnings season is also in full swing and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter added on the week’s outlook.
Since announcing the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump has failed to calm market nerves about future financial policy. His pick, Kevin Warsh, is thought to be notionally opposed to easing financial conditions — something that has already weighed on risk-asset performance.
Markets thus have little faith in interest rates going lower at the Fed’s next meeting in mid-March — even if Warsh is only due to take over in May.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently gives 82% odds of rates staying at current levels.

Commenting, analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company pointed to “stubborn” US inflation statistics as a reason for a more hawkish Fed — and associated market nerves.
“The combination of stronger economic growth and stubbornly high core inflation might starting casting a doubt on the interest rate outlook across the yield curve,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic said that difficult conditions for the Fed were a “major catalyst behind the selloff in growth and AI stocks this year.”
“Rising rates makes the present value of future corporate profits worth less in today’s terms, while higher rates presents competition for investor capital as well,” it added.
As the week began, meanwhile, gold returned to the $5,000 mark, while US stocks futures joined Bitcoin in a relief bounce off Friday’s lows. 

US dollar at a ten-year crossroads
For both Bitcoin and the broader risk-asset market, US dollar strength is becoming an increasingly important potential volatility catalyst.
The US dollar index (DXY), which enjoyed a relief rally following a trip to multiyear lows near 95.5 in late January, is failing to reclaim levels above 98.

A strong dollar tends to result in pressure for Bitcoin, and while the correlation has undergone many changes in recent years, the long-term trend may provide bulls with a more reliable tailwind.
“Still holding that support. But really critical level for the long-term trend,” analyst Aksel Kibar wrote in recent dollar commentary. 
“$DXY can offer a great trade setup soon. Long or short. irrespective of direction.”

Kibar eyed DXY possibly now breaking out of a ten-year trading channel to the downside, but said that more data would be necessary before this was confirmed.
An alternative perspective comes from Henrik Zeberg, chief macro economist at crypto market insight company Swissblock.
In an X post last week, Zeberg likened the current relationship between BTC and DXY to early 2021 — around ten months before BTC/USD saw the blow-off top in its last bull market.
Far from breaking down, DXY could in fact be at the start of its next bull run.
“Strong DXY is BEARISH for BTC - just not in the initial phase of the Bull. Likely because ROTATION into US Assets,” he wrote. 
“In 2021 - we had 12 weeks of BTC rally into the new DXY Bull. The rally gained 130% into the TOP for BTC. I see same development again! +100% gain in BTC - into its FINAL TOP.”

An accompanying chart suggested a target for that “final top” at $146,000.

Yen weakness stays on the radar
For the short term, however, Bitcoin faces another macro hurdle: a new fiscal policy era in Japan.
After the reelection of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japanese stocks surged to record highs — and analysis now sees negative impacts for US investment vehicles and crypto.
“The landslide victory of Sanae Takaichi marks Japan’s shift toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for currency depreciation,” analyst XWIN Research Japan wrote in a blog post published on onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. 
“The ‘Takaichi Trade’ has lifted the Nikkei to record highs while reshaping global capital flows.”

XWIN referenced findings warning of “slowing inflows” into US equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs), thanks to a weaker yen increasing the attractiveness of Japanese bonds.
“Against this backdrop, Bitcoin faces short-term downside risk,” it continued. 
“In risk-off phases, BTC tends to correlate with U.S. equities, allowing equity-led de-risking to spill into crypto markets. This pressure does not reflect deterioration in Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals, but cross-asset risk management.”
As Cointelegraph reported, crypto markets remain highly sensitive to Japan-related news, with one theory even attributing the yen carry trade to last week’s BTC price crash.
Analyzing the yen situation ahead of the election, Robin Brooks, a senior research fellow at Brookings, described its weakness as a “political liability.”
“With the election out of the way, especially if Takaichi does well, the optics of Yen depreciation won’t matter nearly as much,” he predicted. 
“So the election is conceivably a catalyst for the next round of Yen weakening.”

Bitcoin miners see “exceptional” exchange inflows
Bitcoin miners are busy adjusting to current reality after Bitcoin’s 15-month lows — but research warns that a sell-off risk remains.
Related: Bitcoin difficulty plunges, Buterin sells off Ethereum: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 1 – 7
Miner inflows to exchanges reached their highest levels since 2024 in recent days, with Feb. 5 alone seeing total deposits of 24,000 BTC.
Describing that tally as “exceptional,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain said that the market is undergoing a “redistribution phase.”
“Notably, this rise in miner activity comes within a market environment characterized by clear volatility and reduced risk appetite among segments of traders, which could add an extra layer of short-term selling pressure,” a blog post explained.
“However, these inflows do not necessarily indicate the start of a prolonged downtrend, but rather may represent a natural redistribution phase within the market cycle.”

The classic Hash Ribbons indicator, which measures periods of miner stress, likewise continues its reaction to Bitcoin’s flash crash.
The indicator’s two moving averages of hash rate show no sign of forming a classic bullish cross, firmly invalidating its latest “buy” signal from early January.

#BTC #TrendingTopic #bitcoin
$BTC

Hey. Looking at the charts and I see a familiar picture: BTC is back around 70k but has already been lower, $ETH and $XRP are also in the red. Everyone is talking about "market pressure" and "uncertainty." Sounds like a template excuse, let's break it down without the fluff.
Yes, Bitcoin couldn't hold above 74.5k — that's a fact. The chart did break the uptrend that had been holding for months. But is that really so important? The market always moves in waves: rally, correction, consolidation. We're just in a correction phase after a powerful rally. Short-term stop-losses got triggered, the weak hands got shaken out — business as usual.
The fact that crypto is correlating with the stock market right now is nothing new. When indices fall, investors take profits across all risky assets, including BTC. This isn't a crisis of faith in Bitcoin, it's simply a momentary capital reshuffle.
Here's what really stands out: the outflow from Bitcoin ETFs. Institutions are selling a bit — probably taking profits or waiting out the volatility. This creates additional pressure, but it's not a trend reversal. Remember how everyone feared selling from MT.Gox or governments? The market digested it and moved on.
Regulatory uncertainty in the US? It's always been there. While politicians argue, big capital isn't sitting idle — it's quietly accumulating on dips.
So, what is this: the start of a big drop or just a pause?
Personally, I see a healthy correction after a crazy run-up. The market is shedding overheated momentum. Key support levels (like that 60k area for BTC) are holding for now. If we don't see mass position closures by funds and panic in traditional markets, this looks more like a chance to buy the dip than a signal to flee.
The main question right now isn't "why are they falling?" but "is this for long?" What do you think — is this a deep correction or just a minor shakeout before the next leg up?
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin

Bitcoin is at $68,500.
That’s a 46% drop from the $126,210 all-time high we saw in October.
Fear & Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Fear).
Twitter sentiment: "The bubble finally popped."
Retail investors: Total capitulation.
But here is the data that is confusing everyone: The #bitcoin network has never been stronger.

While the price chart looks like a disaster, the internal engine of the network is screaming growth.
Hash rate is hitting new highs, active addresses are climbing, and the network hasn't skipped a beat.
Let’s explain the massive disconnect and why this "Value Gap" matters more than the daily candle.
The Data Everyone Is Ignoring
Price is down 46%. But look at the actual health of the system:
1. Hash Rate (Network Security)
Current: 1.06 Zettahash/s (1,060 EH/s)Change: +24% increase from the price peak.Bitcoin's hash rate the total computing power securing the network hit multiple all-time highs in early 2026. Despite a recent 11% difficulty drop due to U.S. winter storms and miner "de-leveraging," the long-term trend is up.

Translation: Miners are still deploying billions in hardware. They are betting on the next 10 years, not the next 10 days.

2. Active Addresses (Network Usage)
Current: 733,000 daily active addresses (7-day average)Change: +23% increase.More people are moving Bitcoin now at $68K than when it was at $126K. This isn't just "HODLing"; it's utility.

Translation: Network adoption is accelerating even as speculators flee.

3. Institutional Stability (The ETF Factor)
Context: We saw massive outflows of $1.9B year-to-date.The Shift: As of yesterday, spot ETFs recorded $145M in net inflows, marking a third straight day of positive momentum.

Translation: The "forced selling" phase is cooling off. Institutions are starting to buy the "blood in the streets."

Why the Disconnect? Sentiment vs. Reality

Right now, the market and the network are playing two different games.
The Market (Short-Term): Driven by leverage, liquidations, and fear. When $5.5B in leveraged positions get wiped out, fundamentals don't matter. Forced selling doesn't care about hash rate.The Network (Long-Term): Driven by security, utility, and scarcity. The network is growing while the price is weak. This creates a "coiled spring" effect.

Historically, when the network grows and the price falls, the price eventually catches up.
We saw this in the 2018 crash, the 2020 COVID dip, and the 2022 FTX collapse. Every single time, the fundamental strength was the leading indicator of the next bull run.
The "Phase" of the Market
We are currently moving out of Phase 1 (Leverage Unwind) and into Phase 2 (Capitulation/Bottoming).
The Fear & Greed Index hitting 9 is a historic signal. In 2022, it hit 6 before we bottomed. We are deep in the "darkest before the dawn" zone. While retail investors are asking if Bitcoin is dead, smart money is looking at the 100% uptime and record security and asking, "How much can I buy at this discount?"
What This Means For You
Are you watching the candle or the engine?
If you are a Trader: Respect the trend. $68K is a psychological battleground, and macro uncertainty from the delayed Jobs Report is keeping things volatile. Fundamentals won't save your margin call.If you are an Investor: This is the "Value Gap." The foundation of the house is getting stronger (Hash Rate) while the market price of the house is being slashed. This is where wealth is historically built.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s network is flawless. Its security is at an all-time high. Its adoption is growing. Only the price is "broken."
This disconnect won't last forever. Eventually, price aligns with the network. It always has. The question isn't if the fundamentals will matter, but when.
What’s your take?
Are you a Network Bull (buying the fundamental strength ) or a Macro Bear (waiting for a deeper flush )? Which data point are you watching most closely right now?
Let me know in the comments below.

The recent Bitcoin sell-off wasn’t a crash it was a transfer of ownership.
When price dipped into the low $60K region, panic dominated the narrative. Short-term holders and miners capitulated almost simultaneously, creating the impression of broad market weakness. On-chain data shows something very different: sell-side exhaustion.
During the decline:
Miners’ Position Index (MPI) spiked to 2.95, confirming forced miner selling
Short-Term Holder SOPR dropped to 0.97, meaning recent buyers realized losses
Short-Term Holder realized price hovered near $92K, leaving late entrants deeply underwater
This type of synchronized sell pressure typically marks stress completion, not trend continuation.
What matters most is where that supply went.
On-chain flows show wallets holding 100–1,000 $BTC absorbed roughly 77% of the sell pressure during the dip. These were not speculative entries. Long-Term Holder realized cap change flipped decisively positive, with over $5.68B added within a single week. This absorption created clear downside rigidity near current price levels.
Price behavior confirms it. After the initial flush, #bitcoin stopped accelerating lower. Volatility compressed, selling pressure weakened, and price stabilized around the $69K area despite negative sentiment. That is not distribution that is structural support forming.
This does not mean risk has disappeared.
Miner profitability remains strained. Hashprice has rebounded from its local low but is still well below its 365-day average. As long as miner margins remain compressed, intermittent sell-side pressure is still possible. This keeps the market in a controlled accumulation phase, not a breakout phase.
The key takeaway is simple:
Bitcoin didn’t collapse it rotated.
Weak hands exited under pressure. Strong hands absorbed supply with patience. Until demand meaningfully returns, price may remain slow and frustrating but the sell-side has already done its job.
This is the type of rotation that usually becomes obvious only in hindsight.
From here, direction won’t be decided by panic.
It will be decided by patience.