$BTC might've bottomed in June or we're about to see one last flush before the cycle completes, per Hashdex CIO Samir Kerbage.
Price action:
• Down ~45% from Oct 2025 peak of $126K
• Currently sitting ~17% above June low of $59K
• Previous cycles dumped 77-84% peak to trough
• This cycle? Only 53% max drawdown so far
The math says either June was the earliest/shallowest bottom in Bitcoin history, or we've got one more leg down incoming.
What's different this cycle:
• Volatility dropped from 80% (early cycles) to 44% now
• Returns between cycle peaks shrinking: 1,598% → 250% → 85%
• $BTC now only 1.5x more volatile than gold (was 10x in 2017)
Bullish undercurrents despite the dump:
• Brazilian wallets holding $10K+ in stables up 347% since July 2024
• Global stablecoin volume hit $1.79T in June, up 125% YoY
• Visa stablecoin settlement volume 10x'd in a year
The cycle is maturing. Institutional money is smoothing out the violent swings we used to see. Question is: are we done bleeding or is there one final capitulation event left?
Price action:
• Down ~45% from Oct 2025 peak of $126K
• Currently sitting ~17% above June low of $59K
• Previous cycles dumped 77-84% peak to trough
• This cycle? Only 53% max drawdown so far
The math says either June was the earliest/shallowest bottom in Bitcoin history, or we've got one more leg down incoming.
What's different this cycle:
• Volatility dropped from 80% (early cycles) to 44% now
• Returns between cycle peaks shrinking: 1,598% → 250% → 85%
• $BTC now only 1.5x more volatile than gold (was 10x in 2017)
Bullish undercurrents despite the dump:
• Brazilian wallets holding $10K+ in stables up 347% since July 2024
• Global stablecoin volume hit $1.79T in June, up 125% YoY
• Visa stablecoin settlement volume 10x'd in a year
The cycle is maturing. Institutional money is smoothing out the violent swings we used to see. Question is: are we done bleeding or is there one final capitulation event left?