The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index month-over-month (m/m) measures the change in prices that consumers in the United States pay for domestic goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy components. It is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and is the Federal Reserve’s preferred operational benchmark for assessing underlying inflation trends.
Latest Release & Trend
MetricLatest Figure (August 2026)Previous (July 2026)Consensus / ForecastCore PCE (m/m)+0.2% (0.25% unrounded)+0.1%+0.3%Core PCE (y/y)+3.0%+3.0%+3.3%Headline PCE (m/m)+0.3%+0.1%+0.3%Headline PCE (y/y)+3.4%+3.4%+3.7%
Release date: September 30, 2026 Next scheduled release (September 2026 data): October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET
Recent Monthly Path (2026)
August 2026: +0.2%
July 2026: +0.1%
June 2026: +0.1%
May 2026: +0.3%
April 2026: +0.2%
March 2026: +0.3%
Market & Policy Context
Federal Reserve Impact: Because it strips out supply-driven volatility in agriculture and crude markets, a sustained ~0.17% m/m pace is roughly consistent with the Fed's 2.0% annual target. Readings hovering between 0.1% and 0.2% indicate disinflation progress, easing pressure on the FOMC to tighten policy further.
Market Dynamics: A print below consensus typically suppresses U.S. Treasury yields and pulls back the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), while higher-than-expected readings revive higher-for-longer rate pricing.
PCE vs. CPI: Core PCE consistently uses dynamic chain weighting (Fisher-Ideal formula) that adjusts for consumer substitution behavior, whereas the Consumer Price Index (CPI) relies on fixed basket weights with higher exposure to shelter costs.
Latest Release & Trend
MetricLatest Figure (August 2026)Previous (July 2026)Consensus / ForecastCore PCE (m/m)+0.2% (0.25% unrounded)+0.1%+0.3%Core PCE (y/y)+3.0%+3.0%+3.3%Headline PCE (m/m)+0.3%+0.1%+0.3%Headline PCE (y/y)+3.4%+3.4%+3.7%
Release date: September 30, 2026 Next scheduled release (September 2026 data): October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET
Recent Monthly Path (2026)
August 2026: +0.2%
July 2026: +0.1%
June 2026: +0.1%
May 2026: +0.3%
April 2026: +0.2%
March 2026: +0.3%
Market & Policy Context
Federal Reserve Impact: Because it strips out supply-driven volatility in agriculture and crude markets, a sustained ~0.17% m/m pace is roughly consistent with the Fed's 2.0% annual target. Readings hovering between 0.1% and 0.2% indicate disinflation progress, easing pressure on the FOMC to tighten policy further.
Market Dynamics: A print below consensus typically suppresses U.S. Treasury yields and pulls back the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), while higher-than-expected readings revive higher-for-longer rate pricing.
PCE vs. CPI: Core PCE consistently uses dynamic chain weighting (Fisher-Ideal formula) that adjusts for consumer substitution behavior, whereas the Consumer Price Index (CPI) relies on fixed basket weights with higher exposure to shelter costs.