Office loan delinquencies just hit 12.16% in September—nearly matching the all-time high of 12.34% from January.
For context: mid-2022 it was 1.6%. Now we're ABOVE 2008 crisis levels.
Commercial real estate is quietly imploding. Banks holding these bags are sitting on unrealized losses. Remote work killed demand, rates killed refinancing.
This isn't priced in yet. Watch regional banks with heavy CRE exposure—they're the canaries. If this cascades, liquidity tightens across the board.
Risk-off incoming or nah?
For context: mid-2022 it was 1.6%. Now we're ABOVE 2008 crisis levels.
Commercial real estate is quietly imploding. Banks holding these bags are sitting on unrealized losses. Remote work killed demand, rates killed refinancing.
This isn't priced in yet. Watch regional banks with heavy CRE exposure—they're the canaries. If this cascades, liquidity tightens across the board.
Risk-off incoming or nah?