#nfpwatch
⚠️ THE MARKET JUST GOT THE DATA IT WANTED… BUT MAY NOT LIKE WHY IT GOT IT.
September payrolls: +29K.
Expected: roughly +90K.
Unemployment: 4.2%.
That’s a serious slowdown from the previous pace of hiring.
The immediate reaction makes sense:
📉 Treasury yields eased
📉 Near-term Fed hike expectations fell
📈 Risk assets caught a bid
Sounds bullish for crypto, right?
Maybe.
Because there are two ways this story can develop:
Scenario 1: Inflation cools, jobs soften gradually, Fed stays patient → liquidity improves.
Scenario 2: Hiring keeps deteriorating → growth fears take over → risk appetite gets hit.
⚠️ THE MARKET JUST GOT THE DATA IT WANTED… BUT MAY NOT LIKE WHY IT GOT IT.
September payrolls: +29K.
Expected: roughly +90K.
Unemployment: 4.2%.
That’s a serious slowdown from the previous pace of hiring.
The immediate reaction makes sense:
📉 Treasury yields eased
📉 Near-term Fed hike expectations fell
📈 Risk assets caught a bid
Sounds bullish for crypto, right?
Maybe.
Because there are two ways this story can develop:
Scenario 1: Inflation cools, jobs soften gradually, Fed stays patient → liquidity improves.
Scenario 2: Hiring keeps deteriorating → growth fears take over → risk appetite gets hit.
