Gm everyone.
This is the last week of the month, and welcome to another episode of my weekly article, where I share my thoughts on $BTC using both conventional charts and TPO charts. For those visiting for the first time, welcome. Without further ado, let’s jump in.
Monthly Timeframe (1M)
The bulls are still very much in control on the monthly timeframe. The market traded close to the 1/01 opening and saw a quick rejection. I referenced the 1/01 price area in last week’s article. The market is currently trading around the 83k range as of the time of writing.
Here is my thesis: if the monthly timeframe closes below the May high, I wouldn’t be surprised if the bears extend price down toward the 79k–80k area.
Intermediate Timeframe (1W)
On the intermediate timeframe, the bulls are still dominant and trying to hold the 82k price range, although the uptrend is still young. Selling may still continue below the 4/05 week high.
The market outperformed my expectations last week, which was very good in setting the tone for upward continuation. Although the market opened very weak, I’m expecting a close above the 4/05 week high.
Daily Timeframe (1D)
After a successful breakout from the 81.8k–82.8k range last week, the market traded close to the 1/01 high, as discussed earlier. Since the 21/09 high was established, sellers have been very active, driving price back down to the 83k area currently.
Short Term Timeframe (30m)
As stated earlier, sellers have been dominant for seven consecutive days in a row.
Weekly Profile Recap
The high established on Monday had excess, which was very significant in starting a new direction. The POC on that day did not migrate with price as price moved higher, which made the rally high questionable. I discussed it here:
Tuesday had a poor high and a poor low, both of which were repaired the next day. Buyers attempted to extend price above the 21/09 range but failed, leaving a poor high at the top. Sellers then extended the price range down to the 4/05 week high, leaving an excess low. The POC migrated with price as price moved lower, marking seller dominance in the market.
From Thursday through Saturday, short term sellers have been dominant in the market, which makes the current activity look weak.
Yesterday, buyers gained a little dominance but failed to extend price upward. The market built value above Saturday’s value area high.
Note: Short term timeframe traders, whether buyers or sellers, can move the market.
Today's Profile
The market opened in the middle of the previous day’s value area. During A and B periods, buyers failed to extend the range past the previous day’s value area high, leaving excess and resulting in a low-confidence day. Sellers stepped in and drove the market lower. As stated earlier, the market has been dominated by sellers since last Wednesday.
I talked about the Wednesday mechanical low and how important it was for the structure of $BTC going forward. Fast forward to today, it has been repaired. This led me to question the 21/09 POC area, which was not revisited. I’m not saying the market must revisit that price area, but I think it is crucial, especially since there has been no clear sign of buyer strength and the market remains weak.
Possible Scenarios This Week
The 21/09 area may likely be revisited.
21/09 single prints may be revisited.
23/09 poor high may be revisited.
Key Trade Areas
High
27/09 poor high: 87.2k
23/09 poor high: 82.2k
21/09 single prints: need to be revisited
Low
21/09 POC area: 81.4k
20/09 POC area: 80.34k
Thanks for reading.
I would like to know what you think about the market this week.
NFA: This is just my read on the market based on Market Profile structure and price action, not financial advice.